Modiki El Niños and Atlantic hurricane activity
It's an El Niño year, which typically means that Atlantic hurricane activity will be reduced. But not all El Niño events are created equal when it comes to their impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. Over the past 150 years, hurricane damage has averaged $800 million/year in El Niño years and double that during La Niña years. The abnormal warming of the equatorial Eastern Pacific ocean waters in most El Niño events creates an atmospheric circulation pattern that brings strong upper-level winds over the Atlantic, creating high wind shear conditions unfavorable for hurricanes. Yet some El Niño years, like 2004, don't fit this pattern. Residents of Florida and the Gulf Coast will not soon forget the four major hurricanes that pounded them in 2004--Ivan, Frances, Jeanne, and Charley. Overall, the 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes of the hyperactive hurricane season of 2004 killed over 3000 people--mostly in Haiti, thanks to Hurricane Jeanne--and did $40 billion in damage.
A new paper published in Science last Friday attempts to explain why some El Niño years see high Atlantic hurricane activity. "Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones", by Georgia Tech researchers Hye-Mi Kim, Peter Webster, and Judith Curry, theorizes that Atlantic hurricane activity is sensitive to exactly where in the Pacific Ocean El Niño warming occurs. If the warming occurs primarily in the Eastern Pacific, near the coast of South America, the resulting atmospheric circulation pattern creates very high wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, resulting in fewer hurricanes. This pattern, called the Eastern Pacific Warming (EPW) pattern, occurred most recently during the El Niño years of 1997, 1987, and 1982 (Figure 1). In contrast, more warming occurred in the Central Pacific during the El Niño years of 2004, 2002, 1994, and 1991. The scientists showed that these Central Pacific Warming (CPW) years had lower wind shear over the Atlantic, and thus featured higher hurricane activity than is typical for an El Niño year. One of the paper's authors, Professor Peter J. Webster, said the variant Central Pacific Warming (CPW) El Niño pattern was discovered in the 1980s by Japanese and Korean researchers, who dubbed it modiki El Niño. Modiki is the Japanese word for "similar, but different".
Figure 1. Difference of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average during the peak of hurricane season, August-September-October, for seven years that had El Niño events (except for 2009, when the SST anomaly for July 1 - 3 is plotted). On the left side are years when the El Niño warming primarily occurred in the Eastern Pacific (EPW years). On the right are years when the warming primarily occurred in the Central Pacific (CPW years). Shown on the top of each plot is the number of named storms (NS), hurricanes (H), and intense hurricanes (IH) that occurred in the Atlantic each year. Atlantic hurricane activity tends to be more prevalent in CPW years than EPW years. An average hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
What, then, can we expect the current developing El Niño event to do to 2009 hurricane activity? Kim et al. note that in recent decades, the incidence of modiki CPW El Niño years has been increasing, relative to EPW years. However, the preliminary pattern of SST anomalies in the Pacific observed so far in July (lower left image in Figure 1) shows an EPW pattern--more warming in the Eastern Pacific than the Central Pacific. If Kim et al.'s theory holds true, this EPW pattern should lead to an Atlantic hurricane season with activity lower than the average 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. There is still a possibility that the observed warming pattern could shift to the Central Pacific during the peak portion of hurricane season, however. We are still in the early stages of this El Niño, and it is unclear how it will evolve.
Jeff Masters
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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC FROM
TAFB AND SAB WERE T1.5 AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY...ALTHOUGH DATA-T
NUMBERS AT THE TIME WERE 2.0 AND 2.5. RECENTLY...A CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A
PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BAND HAS FORMED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE CONVECTION
HAVE BECOME WELL-DEFINED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE HIGHER END OF THE
ESTIMATES...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AS A
25-KT DEPRESSION.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/7. THE SUITE
OF GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTERING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD AND INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH OF A NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DUE TO THE REMNANTS
OF BLANCA AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST...BUT THE
MODELS QUICKLY RE-BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND
MOVE AT A CONSISTENT 11 OR 12 KNOTS IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND SHADES CLOSER TO THE TRACKS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.
OCEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION ARE
AROUND 28-29C AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS MUCH TO LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS WITH QUICKER
INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THE GFDL PRODUCES THE MOST
STRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 90 KT WITHIN 5 DAYS
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS LEVEL OFF THE INTENSITY AROUND 70
KT FROM 84-120 HOURS. SINCE IT IS NOT APPARENT WHAT WOULD LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 10.0N 111.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 10.2N 112.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 10.4N 114.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 10.6N 117.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 11.0N 119.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 12.0N 124.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 13.0N 129.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 13.5N 134.5W 80 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP042009
9:00 AM UTC July 10 2009
====================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression EP042009 (1007 hPa) located at 10.0N 111.5W or 785 NM south of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.
Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 10.4N 114.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
Tropical Depression "GORIO" continues to move farther away from the country.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5 - Final
====================================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Gorio (05W) located at 18.6ºN 118.1ºE or 230 kms west of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 knots).
Additional Information
=======================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere now lowered.
However, the Western sections of Luzon and Visayas will experience occasional rains associated with the Southwest Monsoon enhance by Tropical Depression "GORIO".
With this development this is the final bulletin on this tropical disturbance.
---
heh lasted one day in the PAR =}
TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY
NAME TD
PSTN 100600 UTC 19.5 N 119.5 E
MOVE WNW 10 KTS
PRES 1000 HPA
MAXD 30 KT
FORECAST
24 HR 110600 UTC 20.0 N 116.8 E
MOVE WNW 08 KTS
PRES 996 HPA
MAXD 40 KT
48 HR 120600 UTC 21.0 N 111.0 E
MOVE NW 06 KTS
PRES 998 HPA
MAXD 35 KT
--
Whose weather code is this? Is it Thailand Meteorological Department?
(just kidding)
Yea
Macao, China
For domestic dissemination only and WTMU40 VMMC
Malaysia
For domestic dissemination only
Philippines
WTPH20 RPMM, WTPH21 RPMM
Republic of Korea
WTKO20 RKSL
Singapore
WTSR20 WSSS
Thailand
WTTH20 VTBB
USA
WTPQ31 - 35 PGUM
Viet Nam
WTVS20 VNN
later everyone =)
I have a question for you since I believe you are very knowledgeable on weather phenom..?I live in South Texas.We are running 10 inches below normal on precip.So bad, the farmers crops did not germinate this year.Any case ,my question is ?we are running around 5-10 degrees normal on our daily highs.Normal 92 degrees .We are averaging 97-102 degrees.Is their a correlation with no ground moisture and the ground being so dry to our daily highs above normal????I dont know the phsyics but it seems the moist ground absorbs more heat more the dry ground???Or is this poppycock?
Soil moisture do affect air temperature
Moist soil, increases evaporation into the atmopshere and since evaporation is a cooling mechanism (evaporational cooling) cools the air directly aboves it.
Ifmoist soil adds too much moisture to the air can leave you leaving hot and sticky due to increase levels of humidity.
If the soil remains dry for too long then most likely the air above it will remain dry also and hot since there is no evaporation and thus no cooling effect.
A tranquil tropics once again this morning. there are no threat areas tom talk about this morning and the models are not forecasting tropical development th next 5 days. however interest is focused on the the GFS continuing to latch ono a strong tropical wave which is at 5 deg W over Africa and is carrying with it a low of 1005 MB. the GFS continues to suggest that this wave will form into a cyclone during the middle part of next week. we all know of the inconsistencies of that Model in initialising early disturbances. after all some credence should be given to it ,for in 2007 it did very well with hurricane Dean, but that was in the month of August. we will just have to wait and see if there is persistency and the other models jump on board.
Link
Tropical update
Just folks BS-ing around. There's nothing going on in the Atlantic anyway.
"LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AFTER ANOTHER GENERALLY HOT AND
DRY ON MONDAY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TAKEN
THE THE LEAD FROM THE ECMWF AND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOWS YET
ANOTHER DEEP TROF TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SE U.S. KEPT
AFTERNOON POPS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE AT 40 PERCENT DURING MOST OF THE
UPCOMING DAYS...BUT IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION
...AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...WILL MOST LIKELY
NEED TO RAISE THESE DURING FUTURE SHIFTS.".....
Troughs in the east, part ?
The GFS still advertises a tropical system spinning up in the eastern Atlantic in the 7-10 day period. Don't see much model support. Think I'll discount the GFS.
Looks like another 7 days of zilch in the Atlantic.
40 days down
143 to go and it's over.
That low stays over land instead of moving into the gulf on the ECMWF 00Z. ECMWF does have the system off of Africa survive across the Atlantic now, with a low east of the islands at the end of the run. So GFS does have some support, but as we know models out that far will change, and probably quite a bit.
Discussion from NO,LA talks about troughs in the east next week...
".DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700
MB. WITH A MODERATE CAP IN PLACE...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION UNTIL THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TOWARD THE WEST. A LACK OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. LUCKILY...WE/RE NOT EXPECTING TO EXPERIENCE ANOTHER
RECORD HEAT WAVE LIKE WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED IN JUNE. EXPECT TEMPS
TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING
THE UPPER 90S SOME DAYS.
THE RIDGE WON/T HAVE QUITE AS STRONG A HOLD ON THE AREA AS IT DID
LAST MONTH...SO DAYTIME HEATING IN SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO MUSTER UP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE AN
EASIER FEAT ALONG THE COAST...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. FOR INLAND AREAS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS IT
DOES SO...IT WILL FORCE A FRONT TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY...A SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE EAST COAST AND RAPIDLY DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO NUDGE THE
RIDGE WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN PUTTING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALLOWING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF DIURNALLY
FORCED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL CARRY POPS IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED UP ONCE
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAT WE WILL SEE THE SAME KIND OF COVERAGE
AS WAS SEEN EARLIER THIS WEEK."
Those that have been saying development in the tropics may be closer to home in 2009 may be correct with this pattern.
I always hear t.v. meteorologists showing the radar and talking about 'rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour', etc.
My question is, how hard can it possibly rain? Are there any records kept for the most rainfall in a one hour period?
All I can say is thank goodness the Atlantic remains quiet. We needed the prep time! :)
Record 1 minute rain
I had 5-8 inches of rain last Monday within a 3-4 hour period....I have never seen it rain that hard, that long....I don't see that much rain with a land falling tropical storm.
Sorry that doesn't answer your question.
Four years ago today this bad boy was making it's way to the coast..........
Agree...just not much.
No matter what happens today, I'll stay in a great mood. Four years ago today I was going into kidney failure and on dialysis for 1 1/2 years. I have never been as sick as I was that day.
Too any and all men out there....when you get in your 40's, get your prostate checked. An enlarged prostate can damage your kidneys....trust me.........I procrastinated and paid for it.
****sorry to be off-topic....back to the weather....****
Dennis was awsome! The night before, my brother and I stayed up drinking a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue Label ($200 a bottle back then). The next morning, I was one hung-over dude. Right before we lost the TV, we saw that Dennis was going to landfall way to our east by Navarre. So I decided to take a nap, thinking the hurricane would hook to the east once it made landfall.
Uh-uh...no it did not.
Doug woke me up at 3:00 PM and asked me if I wanted to see the hurricane.
"Wha?"
"Yeah, man...the 'cane is raging right now in the front yard!"
The rest is YouTube History! :)
CycloneOz---
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily updates
AOI
AOI
Yes, this is one reason I don't check in too much anymore. I know several other "regulars" that email me and say the same thing.
It'll change when something gets going...
This might answer my question Ike....i think.
It was about 1:00 AM on 7/10/2005, and no one was on the roads, and the airport was shut down...but there was a distant roar that could be distinctly heard.
"That sounds like a sortie of airplanes taking off from the airport," Doug commented.
"Doug," I replied. "That sound is coming from the hurricane." ...(which was still a couple of hundred miles off shore.
How were we able to hear a hurricane that far away? I can only guess that the roar of this powerful system bounced off the atmosphere to our position in Cantonment, FL.
After listening to the roar for many minutes, that's when Doug suggested we open that bottle of scotch.
We feared the worse would soon be upon us.
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