Disturbance 91L spins towards Cape Hatteras; Cyclone Aila toll at 180

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 27. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:28 (GMT)

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An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, is centered 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. While the storm does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity, it does have a well-developed circulation, and the spin of the system is readily apparent on long range radar animations out of Morehead City, North Carolina. The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Thursday afternoon, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development. The disturbance will track north or north-northeastward at 10 - 15 mph towards North Carolina's Outer Banks today, then get swept northeastwards out to sea on Thursday. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression, but an Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. If the system does develop, the current location of the heaviest thunderstorm activity in a band well removed from the center suggests that 91L would be classified as a subtropical depression. The Outer Banks of North Carolina can expect 20 - 25 mph winds and heavy rain from this system tonight and Thursday morning. In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Latest radar image from the Morehead City, NC radar.

Tropical Cyclone Aila death toll at 180
The year's deadliest tropical cyclone so far, Tropical Cyclone Aila, has killed at least 180 people in India and Bangladesh border region, according to the latest media reports. Aila hit the India/Bangladesh border region on May 25 as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane, bringing sustained winds of 65 - 75 mph and a 3 - 4 meter (10 - 13 foot) storm surge to the coast. Aila has left over 150,000 homeless in India and 500,000 in Bangladesh. The cyclone destroyed over 180,000 homes in Bangladesh--a severe blow for a region still recovering from the devastation wrought by Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Sidr of November 2007, which killed 3,500 people. The death toll form Aila will likely go much higher, as over 500 people are still missing. The Bay of Bengal is no stranger to deadly cyclones--fifteen of the world's twenty deadliest tropical cyclones have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent was last year's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Aila as it made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border. Image credit: NASA.

Interview tonight on hurricanetrack.com
I'll be doing one of my periodic spiels on Internet radio tonight at 9pm EDT. Tune your browsers to www.hurricanetrack.com and listen in to my interview with host Mark Sudduth. There is also a live chat to participate in. Hurricane season starts Monday!

Jeff Masters

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545. SpicyAngel1072
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Quoting stillwaiting:
I'm wondering if the blob off the west coast of fl is going to fare up or die off in the next few hours???,I'm thinking flair up as the move onshore around 2pm in my area.....


How do you know what time they will be moving on shore? Just curious ... that's a good tool to have ...Thanks
Member Since: 1.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
544. AussieStorm
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:39 (GMT)
Quoting Bobbyweather:
There is a new blog.

where?
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
543. weatherbro
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:32 (GMT)
I don't know why The Weather Channel is relying on the GFS when it's have such feedback issues. It's the only model that stalls the front across s. Florida. The rest more or less sweep it through.
Member Since: 26.05.2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1213
542. Bobbyweather
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:28 (GMT)
There is a new blog.
Member Since: 7.09.2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2649
541. CaneWarning
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:25 (GMT)
Quoting stillwaiting:
I'm wondering if the blob off the west coast of fl is going to fare up or die off in the next few hours???,I'm thinking flair up as the move onshore around 2pm in my area.....


They only give the area a 40% chance of rain, so I guess the NWS doesn't expect it to flair up.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
540. KEHCharleston
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:25 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Now that we need a picture of.. walking down the road in scuba gear... and a stir stick


Image of man courtesy of FotoSearch (Royalty Free)

Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
539. stillwaiting
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:25 (GMT)
Yea mah,thanks,I fixed it!!
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
538. stillwaiting
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:23 (GMT)
I'm wondering if the blob off the west coast of fl is going to fare up or die off in the next few hours???,I'm thinking flair up as the move onshore around 2pm in my area.....
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
537. MahFL
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:22 (GMT)
Stillwaiting, do you mean move East ?
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2905
536. stillwaiting
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:20 (GMT)
Orca: those boxes make it look like the carib has eye's!!!!
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
535. CaneWarning
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:17 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hmmm I wonder if I should leave them on all the time???



I like it.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
534. Orcasystems
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:15 (GMT)
Hmmm I wonder if I should leave them on all the time???

Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
533. stillwaiting
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:14 (GMT)
the main piece of energy w/the GOM blob should effect for the most part from Naples south w/KW getting the worst of the winds and rain....I heard there's another blob that w/build over the sierra's and move into the GOM in addition to the 2 blobs now,the off the TX coastline w/be the one to watch as it heads east!!!
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
532. Orcasystems
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:05 (GMT)
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Good morning,

75F here this morning with a 73F dew point. Chance of thunder showers (duh... ya think?). Birds do not sound as chipper as usual. Setting up for a hot, muggy summer? Will we need to get out the scuba gear, just to walk around?

RE: 'Gulf Glob'
Wondering what happens when the MCS crosses to the EAST of the Sunshine State. Not much shear to speak of, warm water - and all that hot air : )



Now that we need a picture of.. walking down the road in scuba gear... and a stir stick
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
531. Gulfsyed
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:05 (GMT)
Quoting surfmom:
MICAH WEAVER: swfl SURF REPORT
Gradient kinda flattened out so no surf for today although there is a massive blob offshore and 003 has had some 30knt W winds. The blob seems to be associated with the old frontal boundary and not a closed cell Low. Friday's looking to be the best shot at surf with waves in the waist high range from the SW at the best spots by afternoon. By Saturday it's just looking like knee high leftovers as the gradient flattens back out again. Although if a little southy gets going there may still be small surf on Saturday. Keep an eye on the wind in the bottom of the gulf.

Nice to see a little something for me and no hurricane guilt associated w/the waves.......


Sufmom, I am definitley going to check the beach as the storm moves thru...hope we get some...
530. KEHCharleston
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:02 (GMT)
Good morning,

75F here this morning with a 73F dew point. Chance of thunder showers (duh... ya think?). Birds do not sound as chipper as usual. Setting up for a hot, muggy summer? Will we need to get out the scuba gear, just to walk around?

RE: 'Gulf Glob'
Wondering what happens when the MCS crosses to the EAST of the Sunshine State. Not much shear to speak of, warm water - and all that hot air : )

Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
529. fireflymom
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 13:02 (GMT)
Earthquake off the coast of Honduras- 7.1 magnitude Tsunami alert issued. The event lasted for 30 seconds and there was definite ground displacement.



News Alerts

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Seattle Post Intelligencer
Strong quake jolts Honduras, at least one dead
AFP - ‎57 minutes ago‎
The main tremor deep below the Caribbean coast shook the country for more than 30 seconds in the middle of the night and a tsunami alert was maintained for ...Link
Member Since: 5.06.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 573
528. ILwatcher
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:58 (GMT)
522. very cool!
Member Since: 12.09.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1644
527. weathermanwannabe
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:55 (GMT)
Good Morning.......I see that the "Texas Blob" made it through the night and is barely hanging on this morning....
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8269
526. AussieStorm
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:54 (GMT)
Quoting CycloneOz:
'morning all! :)

P'colaDoug and I have decided to extend the test of the XtremeHurricanes.com live webcam / remote hurricane weather station one more day.

We're continuing the test to determine how long the dual deep-cycle battery can continue to power the system. Right now, we're at 25-hours and counting!

We're also monitoring our usage with the VerizonWireless broadband card. Yesterday's 24-hour usage was just 1.62 gig [against the 5 gig limit per month].

All of this is really good news. We have "xtremely" fast and stable streaming being provided by Abacast.com, a stable Windows XP Dell Mini-9, and stable camera / microphone operations.

So you all get an opportunity to spend one more day with the birds!

Enjoy! I'd say we're more than ready to deploy the system when it's go-time.

CycloneOz---


That's live? what sorta bird is that? btw... nice back yard
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
525. Orcasystems
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:53 (GMT)
Quoting RTLSNK:
Thats just what happens in Macon when you have 67*F and 99% humidity, the air shows up on the doppler!! LOL


Safe to assume that SB now consider mold to be a flower?
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
524. RTLSNK
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:52 (GMT)
Thats just what happens in Macon when you have 67*F and 99% humidity, the air shows up on the doppler!! LOL
Member Since: 3.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19502
523. Orcasystems
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:51 (GMT)
How many "L"'s do you have to put on a low to make it a weather map???

Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
522. CycloneOz
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:49 (GMT)
'morning all! :)

P'colaDoug and I have decided to extend the test of the XtremeHurricanes.com live webcam / remote hurricane weather station one more day.

We're continuing the test to determine how long the dual deep-cycle battery can continue to power the system. Right now, we're at 25-hours and counting!

We're also monitoring our usage with the VerizonWireless broadband card. Yesterday's 24-hour usage was just 1.62 gig [against the 5 gig limit per month].

All of this is really good news. We have "xtremely" fast and stable streaming being provided by Abacast.com, a stable Windows XP Dell Mini-9, and stable camera / microphone operations.

So you all get an opportunity to spend one more day with the birds!

Enjoy! I'd say we're more than ready to deploy the system when it's go-time.

CycloneOz---
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
521. Orcasystems
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:43 (GMT)
Quoting RTLSNK:
For the first time in a month my house is finally off of Orca's area of interest chart. Anyone want to buy some swampland in Central Georgia?


Look again big boy :)
Your name is under a Blob of rain.. still
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
520. Orcasystems
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:43 (GMT)
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
519. surfmom
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:42 (GMT)
Good to see the shear..... just give us the RAIN W/OUT THE 'CANE
thx IKE
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
517. surfmom
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:41 (GMT)
Quoting RTLSNK:
For the first time in a month my house is finally off of Orca's area of interest chart. Anyone want to buy some swampland in Central Georgia?

NOPE -- Got to have beach to tempt me & you're way too North.... although your flower gardens are tempting.......but not quite enough
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
516. ycd0108
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:40 (GMT)
Here's what the M = 7.4 earthquake off Honduras looked like on Vancouver Island Seismic:
http://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/stndon/wf-fo/index-eng.php?day=28&filter=autoscaled&month=05&s tation=first&tpl_region=swbc&type=network&year=2009&hour=8#SECTION_1
One good reason to keep checking this blog is to find information about real time breaking news
Thanks to Aussiestorm and OrcaSystems
Member Since: 1.01.2008 Posts: 170 Comments: 4399
515. K8eCane
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:40 (GMT)
ok thanks Ike
Member Since: 26.04.2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3040
514. IKE
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:40 (GMT)
Shear in the GOM is high....

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
513. surfmom
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:40 (GMT)
Gonna be a LOOOONG day Orca... looks like you'll have some entertainment courtesy of the Gulf
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
512. IKE
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:39 (GMT)
Quoting K8eCane:
ike
these things in the gulf, are they forecast by the models to form? i saw a suspicious looking gfs recently that had a couple storms coming from that direction hitting fla.


Tropically...I don't think so.

Rains for peninsula Florida? Yes.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
511. RTLSNK
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:38 (GMT)
For the first time in a month my house is finally off of Orca's area of interest chart. Anyone want to buy some swampland in Central Georgia?
Member Since: 3.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19502
510. surfmom
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:38 (GMT)
MICAH WEAVER: swfl SURF REPORT
Gradient kinda flattened out so no surf for today although there is a massive blob offshore and 003 has had some 30knt W winds. The blob seems to be associated with the old frontal boundary and not a closed cell Low. Friday's looking to be the best shot at surf with waves in the waist high range from the SW at the best spots by afternoon. By Saturday it's just looking like knee high leftovers as the gradient flattens back out again. Although if a little southy gets going there may still be small surf on Saturday. Keep an eye on the wind in the bottom of the gulf.

Nice to see a little something for me and no hurricane guilt associated w/the waves.......
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
509. K8eCane
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:37 (GMT)
ike
these things in the gulf, are they forecast by the models to form? i saw a suspicious looking gfs recently that had a couple storms coming from that direction hitting fla.
Member Since: 26.04.2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3040
508. Orcasystems
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:36 (GMT)
Quoting surfmom:
I like those boxes Orca.......they're very helpful...... : )


I figured it would give me something to do..and to save the life of a dog commonly referred to as Jackson.. who decided that I should be awake at 315 in the ummm morning.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
507. surfmom
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:34 (GMT)
I like those boxes Orca.......they're very helpful...... : )
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
506. IKE
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:34 (GMT)
Quoting K8eCane:



they represent someone named Mr Hebert who had too much time on his hands


LOL.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
505. IKE
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:34 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:

Yup... and you don't want to know.. Hebert #1&2


Thanks. That clears up any remaining questions I had.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
504. K8eCane
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:29 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


LOL.....can you explain exactly what those boxes represent?



they represent someone named Mr Hebert who had too much time on his hands
Member Since: 26.04.2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3040
503. Orcasystems
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:28 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


LOL.....can you explain exactly what those boxes represent?

Yup... and you don't want to know.. Hebert #1&2
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
502. CaneWarning
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:28 (GMT)
Quoting STORMT0P:
that is nothing in the gulf...and soon it will be dead...


It's the real STORMTOP!
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
501. IKE
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:27 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Apparently I woke up way to early.. and have nothing better to do :(



LOL.....can you explain exactly what those boxes represent?
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
500. Orcasystems
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:19 (GMT)
Apparently I woke up way to early.. and have nothing better to do :(

Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
499. IKE
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:11 (GMT)
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
755 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH ALONG THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN
ANY LAND AREAS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
498. IKE
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 12:01 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:
So which Blob are we watching the most?
Blob #1 the first to leave Texas toward Florida.. or Blob #2, which appears to be doing the same thing?


AOI #1

AOI #2


Impressive blobs!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
497. BahaHurican
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 11:44 (GMT)
Morning all. My DSL is still down :o( so I am on dialup again. Weather here yesterday and today was the best it's been in ten days, due to 91L lifting north. It was mostly sunny, though with periods of threatening clouds that mostly didn't deliver any moisture. Basically it seems we are into our normal late May / early June pattern of sun early but possible afternoon thunderstorms.

Someone said last night about S FL going for a record number of days with rain. Somehow I would put the record at closer to 3 weeks than 12 days. . . . lol

Have a good one!
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
496. TheCaneWhisperer
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 11:43 (GMT)
Quoting ChrisDcane:
Another more powerfull blob seems to be coming of texas!!!!!


Just as the GFS was showing yesterday. Nothing really organized though. The second one seemed to take a greater stab at it though, we'll see.
495. weathersp
28. toukokuuta 2009 klo 11:32 (GMT)


Lots of winds.... no organised circulation..
Member Since: 14.01.2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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