90L comes close to being the season's first named storm
The large extratropical storm (90L) that has been pounding Florida, the Bahamas, and Haiti this week with heavy rain and high surf has moved ashore over Mississippi. Last night and this morning, the storm put on an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorm activity and came close to becoming a subtropical or tropical depression. Winds at the Fort Morgan, AL station were 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, and winds at Dauphin Island, Alabama coastal station were sustained at 39 mph, gusting to 48 mph at between 8am and 10am EDT this morning. While these winds were in excess of the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm force, both measurements were taken at elevations higher than the international wind measurement standard of ten meters, so the top measured winds of 90L were actually slightly less than tropical storm force. Had 90L spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm.
The circulation around 90L continues to mean rain for Florida, but the rains will be lessening today. Rainfall amounts as high as 28 inches were measured this week in Northern Florida at Brunnell. Rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches have accumulated along the Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida Panhandle coasts from 90L so far (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Mobile, AL radar.
There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, so have a great weekend, and I'll have a new blog post by Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The lack of intensification may not be a good thing. It may end up doing like 90L and Humberto did, and rapidly intensifying prior to landfall, which would be a very bad thing indeed for Bangladesh, which frequently loses thousands during a tropical cyclone, due to storm surge.
JTWC calling for a 55-knot TS at landfall in 36-48 hours. A good call but there's no telling how fast this could bomb out once it finally organizes.
Exactly. Once the inner core becomes well-established, rapid deepening is certainly very possible. Something on the rate of tropical storm to major hurricane in 6 hours, I would think.
Yeah it's definitely a possibility to be concerned about. Hopefully the systems large size will limit how rapidly it can intensify.
1 we got well above average monsoonal out here in the W
and we all so have vary high wind shear in the Caribbean wish is well about above average for this time of year
Actually El Nino usually calms the monsoon, not intensifies it.
oh how??
I always thought that El Nino meant cooler and wetter conditions for Florida.
You talking about 02B? The advisory has been out...
240300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 88.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO
THE SOUTH AND FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF A VERY BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
232119Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE IS DRIFTING OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF
28 CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM, WHICH DEVELOPED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON
SURGE IN THE BAY OF BENGAL, IS DIRECTLY UNDER A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST
OVER NORTHWESTERN MYANMAR. TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE
AND TRACK NORTHWARD THEN MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 42 ALONG THE INDIA-
BANGLADESH BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 230521Z MAY 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTIO21 PGTW 230530). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN
That is true in the winter. ENSO has little effect on Florida in the summer, with the exception of its affect on tropical activity, and hence can affect rainfall for Florida during the hurricane season.
Oh ok my bad.
Reversal of the Walker Circulation Cell
La Nina
The IMD sure is horrible with releasing advisories on time.
this advisory will be based on 0530 AM IST and it is already nearly 3 hours later now.
ok
It has a fairly large circulation. Those have a harder time coalescing despite favorable conditions.
Yes I know but it's had quite a long time out there. Just to me it seems unusually difficult for this system to get going. This is a good thing for Bangladesh though for sure.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FOUR
DEPRESSION BOB02-2009
5:30 AM IST May 24 2009
======================================
Subject: Depression over west central & adjoining east central Bay of Bengal and cyclone alert for West Bengal coast.
At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB02-2009 over west central and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 17.0N 88.5E, or about 430 kms southeast of Paradip, 530 kms south-southeast of Sagar Island and 590 kms south-southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.
Satellite imagery indicates persistant organized convection. The Dvorak Intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection observed over the area between 10.0N and 21.5N and west of 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperatures due to convection is about -80C.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the seas is rough to very rough around the system's center.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is around 15-20 knots. The system lies very close to the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation over east central Bay of Bengal located to the east northeast of the system center. There is a feeble upper tropospheric trough in westerlies roughly running along 80.0E to the north of 200N. Sea surface temperatures are also favorable for intensification as it is 0.50 to 1.00C above normal. Majority of NWP models also suggest intensification of the system and landfall over West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast.
Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a near northerly direction and cross West Bengal-Bangladesh coast near 89.0E (about 100 kms east of Sagar Island) between 1200 and 1500 PM UTC on monday May 25th.
---
Boo they didn't upgrade to deep depression
Down to 996mb and its a depression?
Taco :0)
Did you compile that?
Regardless, that was an excellent animation.
Pressures are very low over India due to the monsoonal low pressure system. Therefore, Cyclone 02B has to achieve a lower central pressure relative to the low-pressure environment that its in to cause enough pressure gradient to generate TS-force winds.
During El Niño the jet stream is oriented from west to east over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Northern Florida. Thus this region is most susceptible to severe weather.In years where La Niña has given way to El Niño, the summers have been wetter than normal for southeast florida.
Adrian
Very good, in my opinion it should have been at least a depression
Technically it probably was, but the NHC likely didn't want to needlessly raise panic over something that was only a rainmaker.
Funny how they do that........they don't seem to realize that most of the population is very much educated enough to know the difference between a TD and a major hurricane.
If last year is any indication, they probably won't. After all, we thought that the invest (96L, I believe it was) that came before Kyle last year would make it into the 2008 Atlantic storm database, because it was taking on subtropical characteristics prior to its North Carolina landfall. Obviously, that didn't happen.
I guess the NHC doesn't care about technicalities, if the criteria for a tropical or subtropical cyclone is only briefly met.
Haha, very true.
You would be surprised...
Well it was pretty obvious that 90L was taking on full tropical characteristics for at least the last 6 hours before landfall, and probably met sub-tropical criteria for another 12 hours before that.
KEELER, Calif. — A moderate earthquake has jolted an inland desert area in Central California.
The U.S. Geological survey says the 4.7-magnitude quake struck just before 4 p.m. on Saturday.
A preliminary report shows the quake was centered about seven miles southeast of Keeler, a small town in unincorporated Inyo County next to Owens Lake.
Several calls to the Inyo County Sheriff's Department went unanswered.
it sould be noted that LA CA has been hit with a 4.7 follow by a 4.1 2 days later the 4.7 was on sunday of last weekedend and the 4.1 was on tunday of last week and now here we are with yeat other 4.7 on sat all in the same week
Yeah there's a couple lows out there and one tropical wave. All that convection is due to the MJO pulse moving into the Eastern Pacific
can you stop by my blog CA this had other Earthquake
all Levi32 can you find out why we are seeing so many Earthquake here in CA any info that you can find will be help full
when you commet back can you do it on my blog and not here on dr m blog Please
You click on the Image of Cyclone on the India Meteorological Department Cyclone Page.
The KMA is the only site I can advise.
Korea Meteorological Administration
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2009
8:30 AM IST May 24 2009
======================================
Subject: Deep Depression over west central, adjoining east central and northwest Bay of Bengal and cyclone alert for West Bengal coast
At 03:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression BOB02-2009 moved northward and lays centered over west central and adjoining east central and northwest Bay of Bengal near 18.0N 88.5E, or about 350 kms southeast of Paradip, 400 kms south-southeast of Sagar Island, and 470 kms south-southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.
Satellite imagery indicasts further organization of the system. The dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection observed over the Bay of Bengal north of 10.0N and west of 91.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -80C to the southwest of the system's center.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots and a central pressure of 992 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system's center.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is around 20 knots. The system lies very close to the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 19.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation over Myanmar and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal located to the east-northeast of the system center. There is an upper tropospheric trough in westerlies roughly running along 79.0E to the north of 20.0N. Sea surface temperature are warmer over north and central Bay of Bengal. Majority of NWP models also suggest intensification of the system and landfall over west Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast near 89.0E.
Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a near northerly direction and cros West Bengal-Bangladesh coast near 89.0E (about 100 kms east of Sagar Island) between 1200 and 1500 PM UTC tomorrow
Forecast and Intensity
======================
Current: 18.0N 88.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
9 HRS: 19.0N 88.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 20.0N 88.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
46 HRS: 22.5N 89.0E - 35 knots (Overland/Cyclonic Storm)
58 HRS: 23.5N 89.0E - 25 knots (Overland/Depression)
*estimate of times may be off a few hours
Viewing: 351 - 401
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