90L comes close to being the season's first named storm
The large extratropical storm (90L) that has been pounding Florida, the Bahamas, and Haiti this week with heavy rain and high surf has moved ashore over Mississippi. Last night and this morning, the storm put on an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorm activity and came close to becoming a subtropical or tropical depression. Winds at the Fort Morgan, AL station were 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, and winds at Dauphin Island, Alabama coastal station were sustained at 39 mph, gusting to 48 mph at between 8am and 10am EDT this morning. While these winds were in excess of the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm force, both measurements were taken at elevations higher than the international wind measurement standard of ten meters, so the top measured winds of 90L were actually slightly less than tropical storm force. Had 90L spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm.
The circulation around 90L continues to mean rain for Florida, but the rains will be lessening today. Rainfall amounts as high as 28 inches were measured this week in Northern Florida at Brunnell. Rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches have accumulated along the Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida Panhandle coasts from 90L so far (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Mobile, AL radar.
There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, so have a great weekend, and I'll have a new blog post by Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Now that we are in a El Nino event are they going to revise the list on active storms this year to be less or more?
If memory serves me well a very wet month of May usually means less storms for us in Florida.
It also means a very wet season for Texas and the Southern Gulf states correct?
Someone posted a image of the SST chart of a large area of warm water down south
could this be from the walker circulation shifting towards the east and dumping warm air it picked up from El Nino?
CAPTURE SOME OF THE CURRENT DETAIL OBSERVED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
THUS ARE PREFERRED THROUGH THE 1ST 36 TO 48 HRS. BY MONDAY...THE
NAM/GFS AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SHOW A SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY.
GIVEN THIS MODEL PERSISTENCE AND POOR RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE...A
SOLUTION TOWARD THE STRONG SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IS
RECOMMENDED...BUT PREFER MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE RECOMMENDING
THE STRONGEST NAM AFTER MONDAY...WHICH IF TRUE...WOULD BE UNUSUAL
FOR LATE MAY.
from the HPC Model Discussion
Looks like it will be this way all weekend. No invest and plus Memorial Day Weekend.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
DEPRESSION BOB02-2009
23:30 PM IST May 23 2009
======================================
Subject: Depression over west central & adjoining east central Bay of Bengal and cyclone alert for West Bengal coast.
At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB02-2009 over west central Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and lays over west central and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal near 17.0N 88.5E, or about 430 kms southeast of Paradip, 530 kms south-southeast of Sagar Island and 590 kms south-southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.
Satellite imagery indicates persistant organized convection. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection observed over area between 11.0N 18.5N and west of 90.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C around the system.
Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is around 15-20 knots. The system lies very close to the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation over east central Bay of Bengal located to the east-northeast of the system. There is a feeble upper tropospheric trough in westerlies roughly running along 80.0E to the north of 200N. Sea surface temperatures are also favorable for intensification at it is 0.50 to 1.00C above normal. MAjority of NWP models also suggest intensification of the system and landfall over West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast.
Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a near northerly direction and cross West Bengal-Bangladesh coast near 89.0E (about 100 kms east of Sagar Island) between 1200 UTC and 1500 UTC on monday May 25th.
Hello All,
Now that we are in a El Nino event are they going to revise the list on active storms this year to be less or more?
we're in an ElNino event??
Was neutral just an overnight event?
Afternoon haha
I lost all my computers in a fire last year so I don't have all my links anymore to see the data..
More like neutral with a cool bias.
I really thought we had entered neutral, so without any proof, I will leave it to the better minds on this blog to set me straight.
Hey Oz, don't overlook you can usually adapt an external HD (USB) for saving video capture if necessary. Kinda a back up if you will. Redundant senarios can't hurt in that environment. Not sure of your setup. L8R All
:)
Oh no nothing personal taken I wasn't sure myself that is why I ask..
I just read this page which indicates a neutral for the rest of 2009.
Still this is a very wet May for Florida and hopefully it might be good news down the road..
At least I don't have to smell the smoke anymore from the fires!
Wouldn't rule out one starting up later this year.
Non-La nina and Non-El nino is considered neutral conditions with either warm or cool biases.
Doesn't it take a while for the oceans/atmosphere to respond?
These are not personal attacks; just looking for info here.
We still haven't swung over to the "warm" side of the scale yet.
I am in Puerto Rico and those graphics that you posted increased my interest.My question is,what is PWAT?
Good to see you Extreme.
I wouldnt be surprised at all to see a weak El nino this year.
El Nino 2009
Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral, although recent trends are consistent with the very early stages of a developing El Niño. These will continue to be monitored very closely during the next few months. The equatorial Pacific Ocean has continued to warm over the past few weeks and the SOI has fallen rapidly to an approximate 30-day value of −7; the value for April was +9. Also, the Trade winds have remained weaker than average across most of the Pacific.
---
source Bureau of Meteorology
Guess that's what I'm really trying to figure out, without sounding alarmist.
Precipitable water. It relates to the column of moisture between the surface and upper levels if all of it were to be released to the surface. Basically we are looking at precipitation paths and implications.
Good to see you again Storm thanks for the input..
Good to see you too! Feel free to ask questions. Allot of knowledgeable people here now.
Oh that's right I forgot about that. Thanks.
Lol I know I been off the boards for awhile has there been some fighting again on the boards while I was away?
There is no need to defend yourself or explain yourself if I was wrong and you corrected me I thank you for it,after all this is what the board is for..
;=)
Thanks to everyone here for giving me the links I need to start over and bookmark them again..
EDIT: It appears that the easternmost area is a tropical wave. Link
Cool, make sure you have some type of peer to peer connection when you need it. Don't count on service being there under certain conditions.
Pretty impressive pulse there. Seems to be doing good in the EPAC.
Nice to see you too. Agreed.
Just trying to get my main question answered- where do compare, now vs '04, at this time?
As far as El Nino goes, we're pretty close. 2004 went from neutral to weak El Nino by the end of the hurricane season.
2004 SST anomalies May 23rd:
2009 May 22nd:
The Bermuda High at this time in 2004 was also stronger than normal and further west, but more so than it is right now.
2004 Means May 1-20:
2004 anomalies May 1-20:
Basically we're more similar to 2004 than we have been over the past couple years, but it's not near as extreme of a pattern setting up as it was in 2004. The threat to Florida and the SE coast will be bigger this year because of developments close to home, rather than long-track storms. Most storms coming off Africa will likely recurve or shear apart more often than not this year.
Any correlation to how active the ITCZ is in the Pacific compared to what type of early activity we might see here in our basin?
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