Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

90L comes close to being the season's first named storm
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 23. toukokuuta 2009 klo 17:30 (GMT) +2
The large extratropical storm (90L) that has been pounding Florida, the Bahamas, and Haiti this week with heavy rain and high surf has moved ashore over Mississippi. Last night and this morning, the storm put on an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorm activity and came close to becoming a subtropical or tropical depression. Winds at the Fort Morgan, AL station were 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, and winds at Dauphin Island, Alabama coastal station were sustained at 39 mph, gusting to 48 mph at between 8am and 10am EDT this morning. While these winds were in excess of the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm force, both measurements were taken at elevations higher than the international wind measurement standard of ten meters, so the top measured winds of 90L were actually slightly less than tropical storm force. Had 90L spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm.

The circulation around 90L continues to mean rain for Florida, but the rains will be lessening today. Rainfall amounts as high as 28 inches were measured this week in Northern Florida at Brunnell. Rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches have accumulated along the Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida Panhandle coasts from 90L so far (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Mobile, AL radar.

There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, so have a great weekend, and I'll have a new blog post by Tuesday.

Jeff Masters
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1251. Stormchaser2007 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:02 (GMT)    
Quoting ackee:
THE RISK OF STORM ENTERING THE CARRIBEAN THIS SEASON WILL BE FAR LESS THAN PREVIOUS SEASON MY GUEESS THE BAHAMS TO EAST COAST OF THE US MORE AT RISK THIS SEASONS JUST MY THINKING


Un-select your caps button.
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294
1252. CaneAddict 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:02 (GMT)    
Quoting ackee:
THE RISK OF STORM ENTERING THE CARRIBEAN THIS SEASON WILL BE FAR LESS THAN PREVIOUS SEASON MY GUEESS THE BAHAMS TO EAST COAST OF THE US MORE AT RISK THIS SEASONS JUST MY THINKING


You are no more important then any one else here...please avoid the capitals.
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1253. bwi 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:03 (GMT)    
Seastep post 1213 -- I've been watching those low pressures in the western gulf too, but I think is was Stormchaser2007 with the likely answer back in post 1182 or thereabouts -- hostile shear environment over the Gulf, so no development expected would be my guess.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1138
1254. theFatherofNature 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:03 (GMT)    
weather channel just said that they're not anticipating on the Bahama storm on becoming ana?????
1255. Cavin Rawlins 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:04 (GMT)    
Quoting DDR:

Hi 456,so this mean less rainfall for the islands?


Based on where you life. The islands that are exposed directly over the tropical atlantic is expected to recieve less rainfall, while wetter conditions further west. This is only for a short period JAS. Wetter conditions return OND. Probability of exceeding mean rainfall for the Eastern Caribbean this summer - 10%
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1256. Stormchaser2007 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:04 (GMT)    
Quoting theFatherofNature:
weather channel just said that they're not anticipating on the Bahama storm on becoming ana?????


No one should be anticipating a storm. An invest is the only reasonable outcome for now.
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294
1257. Drakoen 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:05 (GMT)    
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012
1258. Stormchaser2007 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:06 (GMT)    
Convection has warmed on the west side. We'll see of it can rebound later tonight.
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294
1259. CybrTeddy 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:06 (GMT)    
Quoting Drakoen:


Is it forming a Coma shape? Interesting, something seems to be on the Mid-Levels atleast. Latest QuickSAT?
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20633
1260. Stormchaser2007 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:10 (GMT)    
Current GFS forecast for our AOI.



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1261. ackee 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:10 (GMT)    
sorry about the caps everyone
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1262. Cavin Rawlins 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:13 (GMT)    

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1263. all4hurricanes 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:14 (GMT)    
yo hablo espanol, pero cuando ustedes hablan en espanol es fastdidioso, tan no mas espanol. Comprende?

Anyway, I think it's to early to expect another invest or anything else until June
Good night everyone
Member Since: 29.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2234
1264. Ossqss 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:18 (GMT)    
Interesting, GFS called out a Long Island express storm nearly two weeks ago at 372hr and we are almost there. Chances ?
Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
1265. KoritheMan 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:20 (GMT)    
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting, GFS called out a Long Island express storm nearly two weeks ago at 372hr and we are almost there. Chances ?


It's May. >.>
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643
1266. sporteguy03 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:20 (GMT)    
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting, GFS called out a Long Island express storm nearly two weeks ago at 372hr and we are almost there. Chances ?


Nil
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4840
1267. GeoffreyWPB 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:21 (GMT)    
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting, GFS called out a Long Island express storm nearly two weeks ago at 372hr and we are almost there. Chances ?


0%
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9248
1268. Ossqss 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:23 (GMT)    
I detect, consensus. :)
Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
1269. zoomiami 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:28 (GMT)    
Several people today mentioned Andrew, made me curious to go back and look at the formation, and the track, knowing what I know now.

It certainly does only take one, Andrew was August 1992, and it was the first named storm. Dade County had approximately 38 hours notice that this storm was expected to hit. Compare that to the notice we currently get - the tracks are almost always within the cones at 3 days out. No one knew or expected a storm of that strength. The vast majority of the people in Dade County had no idea what cat 4 or 5 hurricane would do, and precious little time to prepare for it. The warning systems are light years ahead now.

Looking at the pictures of the damage, its hard to remember it being that bad. And we were located in South Dade, the hardest hit areas.
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4071
1270. GeoffreyWPB 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:29 (GMT)    
Quoting Ossqss:
I detect, consensus. :)


IMHO, this perhaps will reach invest stage, longer shot at reaching depression stage, and I very rarely make an emphatic statement when it comes to the tropics, will not be a named system.
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9248
1271. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:31 (GMT)    
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting, GFS called out a Long Island express storm nearly two weeks ago at 372hr and we are almost there. Chances ?
i dont think so
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41325
1272. Ossqss 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:38 (GMT)    
I don't want storms folks, just crossing names off of our contest's first date calls. It sure does seem a bit strangely passive/active this year. Just my take. Perhaps I am paying too much attention to it, LoL

Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
1273. GeoffreyWPB 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:41 (GMT)    
OK...on a light note...I ask this ? every year and no one can answer it (perhaps it is a dumb ?), but I find it interesting...Here it is...Why does the map symbol for a tropical storm have an eye (an open area in the center), and the symbol for a hurricane doesn't, when hurricanes do have an eye (in most cases)?
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9248
1274. Ossqss 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:45 (GMT)    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
OK...on a light note...I ask this ? every year and no one can answer it (perhaps it is a dumb ?), but I find it interesting...Here it is...Why does the map symbol for a tropical storm have an eye, and the symbol for a hurricane doesn't, when hurricanes do have an eye (in most cases)?


Ummmmmm, its not quite full yet?

Mature if you will. One flag two flags senario :7)
Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
1275. stillwaiting 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:49 (GMT)    
Quoting weatherbro:
All models(especially the Euro/Canadian) are pointing more and more towards driving a cold front through the Florida peninsula sometime late this weekend/early next week(anywhere between Saturday night to Tuesday morning).

Since Florida has received a lot of rain, I'm sure a lot of folks will welcome this shot at lower humidity.:)

Could something form from the tail-end of this boundary in the southwestern or central Caribbean?


you said the almost the same thing about 1 1/2 weeks ago,no more cold fronts w/clear the state until sept/oct earliest,IMO
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1276. TheCaneWhisperer 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:50 (GMT)    
Quoting Weather456:
The less AEW wave season is not expected to greatly affect the overall numbers during this year. Regardless of any year there is an average of 1 cape verde hurricane. Despite activity in 2005 and 2008, only 1 and 2 cape verde hurricanes form, respectively. What we should be worry about is west of 50W.


Just wanted to say 456! You! are on top of your game my friend.
1277. jpritch 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:50 (GMT)    
The BOB storm took a heavy toll for "just" a tropical storm:

Cyclone Aila hit the country's south-western coast yesterday afternoon, killing at least 18 people and washing away several thousand homes, as wind-driven tidal surge inundated vast tracts of land.

Four people in Bhola, three each in Khulna, Patuakhali, Noakhali, Laxmipur, one in Barguna and a child in Barisal died, while a few hundred thousand people were marooned in the affected areas.

Over 500 people were reported missing, mostly fishermen who were yet to return from the sea.

In the Indian state of West Bengal, at least 19 people died as Aila lashed Kolkata and five adjoining districts. The cyclone affected around one lakh people in West Bengal and paralysed normal life, reports our correspondent Pallab Bhattacharya from India.


Link
Member Since: 28.06.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
1278. HurricaneKing 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:52 (GMT)    
Looking at the bahamas disturbance it appears that even though the convection is weaker the mid level low is trying to tighten the surface trough into a surface low at the moment. I suspect that at this time tomorrow we'll have at the very least an invest. If it can travel closer to the gulf stream possibly something more.
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1279. stillwaiting 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 01:53 (GMT)    
watch the eastern GOM tomorrow,a area of disturbed wx may develop,IMO.....
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1280. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:01 (GMT)    
Quoting Ossqss:
I don't want storms folks, just crossing names off of our contest's first date calls. It sure does seem a bit strangely passive/active this year. Just my take. Perhaps I am paying too much attention to it, LoL

well my pick for first storm in your little contest is may 28 so i got 3 days left
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41325
1281. Ossqss 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:03 (GMT)    
1273 -- Ok, I give up./ I cannot find who or when, the hurricane symbol was actually created and why they made them that way. Can you?
Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
1282. Drakoen 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:03 (GMT)    
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012
1283. GeoffreyWPB 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:04 (GMT)    
Geez...I picked June 22 for the first named storm...Think I may be in trouble!
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9248
1284. KEHCharleston 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:05 (GMT)    
Quoting Ossqss:
I don't want storms folks, just crossing names off of our contest's first date calls. It sure does seem a bit strangely passive/active this year. Just my take. Perhaps I am paying too much attention to it, LoL

Well... since 90L shoulda/coulda/woulda been Ana on May 23rd - Do I get half credit?
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
1285. GeoffreyWPB 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:06 (GMT)    
Quoting Ossqss:
1273 -- Ok, I give up./ I cannot find who or when, the hurricane symbol was actually created and why they made them that way. Can you?


No, I have no clue...that's why I thought it was a trivia-like question for the historians on here!
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9248
1286. presslord 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:06 (GMT)    
drak...more of what we don't want...less of what we do want...
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1287. canesrule1 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:07 (GMT)    
is there an LLC in the storm over the bahamas
1288. Ossqss 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:09 (GMT)    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well my pick for first storm in your little contest is may 28 so i got 3 days left


My comments were not pointed, just wondering if we had something going that may place a name. I have been out of pocket and just trying to catch up. No fouls here folks !

Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
1289. clwstmchasr 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:10 (GMT)    
If we are looking at an average year as forecasted by most experts then I think we'll see an average start for the first storm - mid to late June.
Member Since: 29.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
1291. GeoffreyWPB 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:18 (GMT)    
Ossqss...thank you for the clarification!
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1292. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:19 (GMT)    


Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41325
1293. Drakoen 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:22 (GMT)    
This evenings quicksat revealed no surface circulation.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012
1295. surfmom 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:25 (GMT)    
Quoting Ossqss:
I don't want storms folks, just crossing names off of our contest's first date calls. It sure does seem a bit strangely passive/active this year. Just my take. Perhaps I am paying too much attention to it, LoL



i may be right..... otherwise it's a fatty crow LOL
Quoting presslord:
drak...more of what we don't want...less of what we do want...


Life, the weather.... is there a pattern here?
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538
1296. Ossqss 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:25 (GMT)    
Not being an expert, I look at long range and then see what happens.

I count on you all to be the eyes and brains along with the local authorities. This blog does provide much needed and valuable insight !

That's a fact folks :)

Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
1297. BahaHurican 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:26 (GMT)    
Evening all. Power is still out here. Looks like this pm's lightning hit a transformer in the area, so all the neighbourhood lights are out. Also means I'm still on dialup. Didn't have time to upload the photo at work, sadly.

I'm going to look at the most recent comments, maybe look at the TWD, forecast maps, and then I'm out. Unless the power comes on before I head to bed, in which case I may stay up for a while. . .
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961
1298. surfmom 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:26 (GMT)    
Quoting Ossqss:
Not being an expert, I look at long range and then see what happens.

I count on you all to be the eyes and brains along with the local authorities. This blog does provide much needed and valuable insight !

That's a fact folks :)



Wait Ossqss.... this is just the beginning of the ride.... heh, heh, heh
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538
1299. stoormfury 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:29 (GMT)    
no surface circulation yet. there is a mid level circulation. wind shear at the moment is 20 knots and is expected to decrease to 5-10 by wed, which might allow the mid level circulation to work it's way to the surface
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2320
1300. Drakoen 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:29 (GMT)    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all. Power is still out here. Looks like this pm's lightning hit a transformer in the area, so all the neighbourhood lights are out. Also means I'm still on dialup. Didn't have time to upload the photo at work, sadly.

I'm going to look at the most recent comments, maybe look at the TWD, forecast maps, and then I'm out. Unless the power comes on before I head to bed, in which case I may stay up for a while. . .


You are on a generator now?
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012
1301. Ossqss 26. toukokuuta 2009 klo 02:34 (GMT)    
Quoting surfmom:


Wait Ossqss.... this is just the beginning of the ride.... heh, heh, heh


No worry, I signed up for the correspondence course.

When I googled == correspondence course for tropical weather=== here is what I got.

Go Stormw :)

#1 link on Google on my end!

Link
Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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