90L comes close to being the season's first named storm
The large extratropical storm (90L) that has been pounding Florida, the Bahamas, and Haiti this week with heavy rain and high surf has moved ashore over Mississippi. Last night and this morning, the storm put on an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorm activity and came close to becoming a subtropical or tropical depression. Winds at the Fort Morgan, AL station were 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, and winds at Dauphin Island, Alabama coastal station were sustained at 39 mph, gusting to 48 mph at between 8am and 10am EDT this morning. While these winds were in excess of the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm force, both measurements were taken at elevations higher than the international wind measurement standard of ten meters, so the top measured winds of 90L were actually slightly less than tropical storm force. Had 90L spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm.
The circulation around 90L continues to mean rain for Florida, but the rains will be lessening today. Rainfall amounts as high as 28 inches were measured this week in Northern Florida at Brunnell. Rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches have accumulated along the Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida Panhandle coasts from 90L so far (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Mobile, AL radar.
There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, so have a great weekend, and I'll have a new blog post by Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
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No. The opposite.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TEN
CYCLONIC STORM AILA (BOB02-2009)
2:30 AM IST May 25 2009
===============================
Subject: Cyclone warning for West Bengal and north Orissa coasts. “Orange Message”
At 21:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Aila over northwest & adjoining central Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards and lay centred over northwest Bay of Bengal near 20.0N 88.0E, or about 140 kms east of Paradip, 180 kms south of Sagar Island and 300 kms southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.
Satellite imagery indicates bending feature system. Current Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection observed over the Bay of Bengal between 14.5N to 22.0N and between 83.0E to 92.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70 to -80C around the system center.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots and a central pressure of 984 hPa. The state of the sea is HIGH to VERY HIGH around the system's center.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is between 10-15 knots around the center. The past 24 hours shear tendency is negative to the north of the system. The system lies close to the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation over Mynamar and adjoining north Bay of Bengal located to the east-northeast of the system. There is an upper tropospheric trough in westerlies west to the system. Sea surface temperature are warmer over north and central Bay of Bengal. Majority of NWP models also suggest intensification of the system and landfall over West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast near 88.0E
Storm surge of a about 2-3 meters above astronomical tide is likely over coastal areas of West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast at the time of landfall.
Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a near northerly direction and cross West Bengal-Bangladesh coast near 88.0E near Sagar Island between 0900 and 1200 PM tomorrow.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
Current: 20.0N 88.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
9 HRS: 21.5N 88.0E - 50-55 knots (SVR Cyclonic Storm)
15 HRS: 22.5M 88.0E - 45 knots (Overland/Cyclonic Storm)
Yeah that was one wild year. This year may be the Carolinas turn to get a significant hurricane.
Bermuda High is not setting up as far west as 2004. Whereas Florida was the prime target for systems north of the Caribbean in 2004, the Carolinas will be more at risk this year.
Yup I've had Chrome since it came out with its first version. Stuck with it ever since. Miss some things about Firefox but Google always fills in the blanks eventually. I can't find many things that Google is not the best at.
Okay Cyber now your scaring me.Are those facts true?
From my experience, Google Chrome seems to have difficulty properly loading javascripts. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
It could be just my own personal problem though, that no one else has.
Had the same problem with some java satellite loops, but Chrome 2 seems to have fixed that problem, along with over 350 other bugs.
you and me both must be in lurk mode tonite
That is correct. Stronger system = deeper system, which is more sensitive to passing mid-latitude troughs, and is more likely to recurve.
Bermuda High positions in May usually foreshadow the mean position for the rest of the summer, but as you said the weather pattern could set up for one week in a way that could direct a storm anywhere. Everybody should always be ready.
Later all.
Seems like there are two main paths the storms went in '04.Will '09 follow this?
Edit 85W to 80W
Ok, let's change it to folks living along 80W
Which arrow and "average" you mean for this season 2009 or just general average.
Even better...
I just saw that on the news.
Um...I think i've missed a good majority of the converstaion tonight - am going to go back and read it but someone wanna give me the cliff notes? I live on the border of GA/SC. Are we due for some issues?
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