An early season Atlantic named storm looking less likely

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15. toukokuuta 2009 klo 14:46 (GMT)

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The possibility of a May subtropical storm forming near Florida next week now appear dim, according to the latest suite of runs by the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models. Yesterday's runs indicated that a small area of low shear air might develop over Florida next week, between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to the south. However, the latest set of runs are showing a much reduced area of low shear, too small for a subtropical storm to form. Perhaps a better chance for a subtropical storm to form is in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. There, a large upper-level cold low has cut off from the jet stream, and it may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as Subtropical Storm Ana. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.

Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.


Figure 1. Tracking map for the earliest hurricane to make landfall, the March 1908 hurricane in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.

List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1

I'll have an update over the weekend if the models indicate a renewed tropical threat; otherwise, have a great weekend, and I'll be back on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1016. Patrap
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 19:24 (GMT)
Just drove thru the Hail Shaft of this Boomer...pea sized.



TDWR High Definition Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.20 Degree Elevation Range 48 NMI
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
1015. reedzone
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 19:13 (GMT)
The disturbance is organizing well being under 30 knots, I'm kind of impressed.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1014. IKE
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 19:12 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1013. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 19:11 (GMT)


clouds are shearing ene with continueing convective dev. cen fix iam using has been moved to 19.3n/78.0w
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
1012. cg2916
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 19:11 (GMT)
EMCWF looks kind of agressive.
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
1011. Cavin Rawlins
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 19:08 (GMT)
Be back later. The models and observations have spoken and there seems to the consensus that some type of disturbance will exist GOM next week.

Check my 2009 Hurricane Season Outlook.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1010. cg2916
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 19:06 (GMT)
Link to 12Z ECMWF please?
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
1009. Drakoen
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 19:05 (GMT)
I like that site Adrian, especially the wind field and the rain imagery. You can tell the system is subtropical.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1008. NorthxCakalaky
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 19:03 (GMT)
Given that this front currently runs from Michigan to Western Texas/Mexico Border, it will most certainly impact anything, even marginally, brewing in the GOM and south.
--------------------------------------

Local forecasters here are calling for morning lows in a range from 25-30 in the mountains of NC/VA. For like 3mornings, there goes my crops.
1007. Cavin Rawlins
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 19:03 (GMT)
The 12Z ECMWF appears reasonable, considering the baroclnic enviroment the system is expected to develop.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1006. HurricaneSwirl
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 19:01 (GMT)
Coming out of lurking...

My pressure right now is 29.91 inches, yet I'm in
central Georgia. It is rising and we did have a nasty thunderstorm that went on for about an hour tho.
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1005. cg2916
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 19:00 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
Good afternoon everyone, models have become somewhat aggressive with our "possible" Ana. Most of them target the Panhandle of Florida (sorry IKE). NOGAPS takes it more west, heading to Texas if I was reading that correctly. Here's what I think, convection is organizing quite well under 30 knots of shear today, Invest 90L might show up either tonight or tomorrow if organization continues to happen. Nobodies mentioning about our cridder in the Atlantic. I like the spin, it looks like it might be cutting off, but convection is weak. I see a Subtropical Storm developing next week out of our Carribean disturbance. The water depth does matter but guys come on, think about past storms, a pure tropical storm is not out of the question! It's been said that storms have a mind of there own sometimes.

Hmm... why did I just think Katrina... referring to the surprise, not strength.
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
1004. Drakoen
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:59 (GMT)
Quoting hurricane23:
Drak thought i'd pass along this newly developed site for florida a friend at FSU put together.Model data from the WRF/GFS/NAM are available. VIEW HEREAlso sst daily output.


Thanks. Looks pretty sweet.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1003. Cavin Rawlins
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:59 (GMT)
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1002. IKE
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:59 (GMT)
That ECMWF has landfall Saturday night.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1001. Drakoen
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:58 (GMT)
ECMWF 12z similar to the GFS 12z
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1000. hurricane23
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:58 (GMT)
Thought i'd pass along this newly developed site for florida a friend at FSU put together.Model data from the WRF/GFS/NAM are available. VIEW HEREAlso sst daily output.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13594
999. hurricanemaniac123
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:58 (GMT)
That would be odd if TWO storms formed before June 1st.

That might happen lol
Member Since: 21.09.2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
998. IKE
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:57 (GMT)
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike your buddy ECMWF 12z is up you can do the honors...


I see it...Link
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
997. sporteguy03
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:56 (GMT)
Ike your buddy ECMWF 12z is up you can do the honors...
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
996. kmanislander
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:55 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
Owen Roberts, GC (Airport)
Updated: 56 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
84 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 66%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the SSE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 90 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 9 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 17000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft


That accords with the 1013 pressure reading at my home which is about 1.5 miles S of the airport as the crow flies
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
995. DaytonaBeachWatcher
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:55 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherStudent:


why is it pushing it furtehr and furtehr west???


Because the model's been listening to the Village People again.

"Go Wessssst! This is what we're going to do! Go Wessssst...."



i realize this was quite a few posts ago, but i was reading thru the blog and saw this and was LMAO at it.

too funny
Member Since: 29.06.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1135
994. IKE
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:53 (GMT)
Owen Roberts, GC (Airport)
Updated: 56 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
84 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 66%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the SSE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 90 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 9 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 17000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
993. CybrTeddy
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:52 (GMT)
Quoting MrMarcus:


Given that this front currently runs from Michigan to Western Texas/Mexico Border, it will most certainly impact anything, even marginally, brewing in the GOM and south.


And my I ask, why wouldn't the models take it into account?
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23009
992. Drakoen
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:51 (GMT)
The CMC is obviously too aggressive forecasting for a deep warm core system. The NAM forecast is a little more sound considering the depth of the 26C in the southern Central GOM. It still may be overdoing it though.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
991. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:50 (GMT)


AOI
18.5N/78.7W
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
990. Stormchaser2007
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:49 (GMT)
Quoting Drakoen:
I think the GFS and the UKMET provide the best solutions so far. With the system brushing South Florida and then getting into the GOM intensifying a little, then decreasing in intensity as it moves towards the northern coast.


Definitely seems plausible.
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
989. reedzone
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:49 (GMT)
Good afternoon everyone, models have become somewhat aggressive with our "possible" Ana. Most of them target the Panhandle of Florida (sorry IKE). NOGAPS takes it more west, heading to Texas if I was reading that correctly. Here's what I think, convection is organizing quite well under 30 knots of shear today, Invest 90L might show up either tonight or tomorrow if organization continues to happen. Nobodies mentioning about our cridder in the Atlantic. I like the spin, it looks like it might be cutting off, but convection is weak. I see a Subtropical Storm developing next week out of our Carribean disturbance. The water depth does matter but guys come on, think about past storms, a pure tropical storm is not out of the question! It's been said that storms have a mind of there own sometimes.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
988. weatherblog
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:48 (GMT)
Quoting Drakoen:
I think the GFS and the UKMET provide the best solutions so far. With the system brushing South Florida and then getting into the GOM intensifying a little, then decreasing in intensity as it moves towards the northern coast.


Yeah, I could believe that.
Member Since: 10.07.2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
987. MrMarcus
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:47 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Won't be so strong when it comes down to florida. The models are bending it into Florida because of the front last I heard.


Given that this front currently runs from Michigan to Western Texas/Mexico Border, it will most certainly impact anything, even marginally, brewing in the GOM and south.
Member Since: 2.01.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
986. Drakoen
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:46 (GMT)
I think the GFS and the UKMET provide the best solutions so far. With the system brushing South Florida and then getting into the GOM intensifying a little, then decreasing in intensity as it moves towards the northern coast.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
985. kmanislander
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:46 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
actually i think its just east of ya and your pressure should cointinue to fall kman all current activity is se e ne of ya


From looking at the sat images you would think it was a nasty day here but quite the opposite. 85 outside and very sunny.

The barometer is falling slowly but 1013 is still relatively high. This morning lots of dark clouds on the horizon and wind gusts but the rain has passed us by so far.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
984. IKE
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:45 (GMT)
Quoting MrMarcus:


I'm sure that the models don't even take it into account.



?
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
983. CybrTeddy
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:44 (GMT)
Quoting MrMarcus:


I'm sure that the models don't even take it into account.


Won't be so strong when it comes down to florida. The models are bending it into Florida because of the front last I heard.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23009
982. IKE
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:44 (GMT)
Tampa,FL. long-term...

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...MAIN FORECAST VARIABLE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
THE GULF MID-WEEK. SHOULD BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND A SFC TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.
WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT-OFF AND HOW STRONG IT WILL GET
CONTINUES TO VARY...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING A FAIRLY
SIMILAR SOLN EXCEPT THE GFS A BIT STRONGER AND TO THE WEST OF THE
ECMWF...AND THE DGEX STILL MORE STRONG AND FURTHER TO THE WEST.
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW VARIES IN LOCATION AND
TIMING...BUT GENERALLY STAYS SW OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE
STATE IN THE DGEX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NE OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOW
PLACEMENT THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN E/SE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED INCREASED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN AT GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
981. PensacolaDoug
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:44 (GMT)
Don't know why he is referring this year to be an El Nino year, anywho, I followed his seasonal forecasts yearly and they never seem to more than 60% correct.


Because its his belief that el nino is comming on.
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
980. Patrap
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:44 (GMT)
I smell crawfish..

O yeah.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
979. Patrap
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:43 (GMT)
Anytime DrMickey.
I keep one upstairs and the other downstairs.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
978. MrMarcus
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:43 (GMT)
Quoting clwstmchasr:
There is a strong cold front (for May) that is going to dive into Central Florida. What impact will this have on any development and/or movement of this potential system?


I'm sure that the models don't even take it into account.
Member Since: 2.01.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
977. weatherblog
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:42 (GMT)
Quoting hurricane23:
Iam leaning towards something hybird/sub-tropical based on the fact that sst's in the gulf are still rather (shallow) and dont support a cyclone steadily intensifying system as some models are suggesting, also until we have a well established circulation were playing a dart game but based on the UK its something to keep an eye on come early next week.


I agree this is like playing a dart game. Even though I would love for this to hit Florida, where and how strong this will be is totally up to question. The only thing I take out of the models right now is that there might be a subtropical/tropical storm near Cuba or the GOM in the upcoming week (similar to what you think). Since it's also so early in the year, anything that gets in the GOM will surely get pulled north or north east by a trough.
Member Since: 10.07.2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
976. kmanislander
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:42 (GMT)
968. IKE 6:39 PM GMT on May 16, 2009

Thanks, only forecasted at this time. Those forecast surface maps drop features as fast as they add them.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
975. SevereHurricane
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:42 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


Don't know why he is referring this year to be an El Nino year, anywho, I followed his seasonal forecasts yearly and they never seem to more than 60% correct.


In School 60% correct is an F lol
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
974. DrMickey
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:42 (GMT)
Reecom R-1630 Buy It $59
Excellent choice.I have 2.
59$ most places
Quoting Patrap:


Reecom R-1630 Buy It $59
Excellent choice.I have 2.
59$ most places


Patrap,

I was hoping you'd give your opinion as you are such a strong advocate of WX radios.

Thank you!

Michael
Member Since: 22.05.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
972. Drakoen
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:41 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


Do the models take that into account?


I'm not sure about that. I know they just take in the existing SSTs. Whether or not they consider the depth i'd have to look into. That might take a better resolution model like the HWRF, GFDL, or ECMWF.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
971. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:41 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon

Where exactly is the 1010 mb low suppoosed to be. Not South of Cuba I can tell you as pressure here is 1013 mb
actually i think its just east of ya and your pressure should cointinue to fall kman all current activity is se e ne of ya
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
970. Patrap
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:40 (GMT)
23,ya good with the #'s..but ya style lacks,er presentation skills.

I wasnt talking or referring to anyone Sport.

Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
969. hurricane23
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:40 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
It dosent matter what ya call it,what its core is,Blue or Red,..

Its Impact that counts,overall,always.

Like folks focusing on the CAT number when a 20 ft Surge is about to slam them to the next Port of Call.

Impact counts, the specifics dont mean a Rats Buttt.


Pat chill out brother iam about to have lunch with the wife no need for the (rats butt) lol.Its ok i'll start putting up my shutters on monday aftenoon to get ready from the slug of moisture coming up from the caribbean.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13594
968. IKE
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:39 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon

Where exactly is the 1010 mb low suppoosed to be. Not South of Cuba I can tell you as pressure here is 1013 mb


That was a map from the TPC at 48 hours.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
966. Drakoen
16. toukokuuta 2009 klo 18:38 (GMT)
Quoting hurricane23:


Near 0 lol.


And shear still looks marginal.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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