La Niña conditions end; 10th warmest March on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 17. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 12:53 (GMT)

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Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and deep water temperatures have warmed significantly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific over the first two weeks of April, and La Niña conditions are no longer present. While NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has not yet declared an end to this La Niña episode and dropped their La Niña advisory, it is very likely that the La Niña event that began in December 2008 is now over. The big question is whether an El Niño event will rapidly form in its place, in time for hurricane season. This did happen after the 1976 La Niña, which ended in April, with a weak El Niño beginning in September. However, it can take a few months for the atmosphere to adjust to the formation of a new El Niño, and there is no guarantee that a weak El Niño for the coming hurricane season would act to dramatically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity.The number of Atlantic hurricanes is typically reduced in an El Niño year, due to increased wind shear from strong high-level winds. Nearly all the model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region predict neutral conditions for the August - October peak of hurricane season. Four out of 21 El Niño models are predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season; three are predicting a La Niña, and fourteen are predicting neutral conditions.


Figure 1. The difference of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for the Niña 3.4 region of the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W). La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the Niña 3.4 region cools below -0.5°C. La Niña conditions began in December 2008 and ended in late March 2009. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Tenth warmest March on record for the globe
Global temperatures remained about where they've been the past two years, with the planet recording its 10th warmest March on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - March was the eighth warmest such period on record.

An average March for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., March temperatures were the 51st warmest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month had near-average precipitation, ranking as the 42nd wettest March. Three states (Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey) experienced their driest year-to-date period ever. In neighboring states, Pennsylvania recorded its second driest year-to-date period and Massachusetts and West Virgnia experienced their fourth and fifth driest, respectively. The below-normal precipitation averages led to the driest ever start to the year for the Northeast region. Record amounts of snow fell in North Dakota during March. Fargo received 28.1 inches, which was nearly 2 more inches than the previous March record set in 1997. Fargo also recorded 4.62 inches of precipitation which set a new monthly record. Runoff from the record precipitation led to the highest flood levels ever observed on the Red River in North Dakota. The river crested in Fargo at a record level of 12.4 m (40.8 feet), shattering the previous record of 12.2 m (40.1 feet) set in 1897.

Through March, the U.S. has only seen about 50% of normal tornado activity for the year, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. There were just 9 tornado deaths through March, compared to 70 deaths through March of 2008, and the 3-year average of 44 deaths.

On April 14, 2009, 17% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 21% figure observed January through March.

Bahamas 2009 Weather Conference
This week, many of the world's hurricane experts are gathered at the Bahamas Hurricane Conference. Check out their web site for short videos by some of the presenters. The 3-minute talk by NHC Director Bill Read and former NHC Director Max Mayfield on the inadequacy of our familiar Category 1-2-3-4-5 Saffir-Simpson scale is interesting. They make the point that no one scale will ever be able to capture the threats a hurricane poses, since these depend greatly on exactly what track the storm takes, and our forecasts will never be able to precisely pinpoint the track. Thus, introducing a new scale to quantify storm surge risk is not a complete solution to the inadequacies of the Saffir-Simpson scale. Coastal residents need to heed the detailed wind and storm surge forecasts for their area, regardless of what Category storm is approaching.

Jeff Masters

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689. stillwaiting
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:43 (GMT)
TS: do you have this mornings sounding from ruskin????,interested to see whats going on in our mid-levels....before the arrival of this pre-frontal trough....
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
688. stillwaiting
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:41 (GMT)
huge explosion of storms at the tail end of the front ocer the BOC!!!
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
687. stillwaiting
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:35 (GMT)
SWFL:after a muggy morning,showers and t-storms are now formimg about 50 miles offshore,moving east,arrival along the coast should be between 1-4pm.....conditions will include heavy rain,up to 1 inches,lightning, gusty winds over 40mph,small hail and the possiblity of waterspouts.......
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
686. stoormfury
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:20 (GMT)
area 94w 22n showing cyclonic turning in the mid and upper levels. no surface reflection there at the moment is it the area that the gfs is hinting at sub tropical development?
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
685. Orcasystems
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
684. cali55
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:15 (GMT)
hi .i get confused with la nina with that other phase where caligets the pinapple connetion that what i call call it we get ton of rain snow level r very high .steve
683. fireflymom
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:06 (GMT)
Surfmom I am thinking of you this morning after hearing of the sudden deaths of the Polo Ponies yesterday. Hope non of the horses you care for were affected by what ever went wrong.
We went to the Premire of "The Messenger" last night. A film about one year with several interesting characters on Bolivar Peninsula, Ike was an unlooked for happening that became a poignant part of the film. Great before and after shots of peoples lives and property. Worth seeing if you get the opportunity.
Member Since: 5.06.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 575
682. stoormfury
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 12:11 (GMT)
morning

Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
681. IKE
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 11:14 (GMT)
I see StormW and a lot of the regulars were on here last night.

41 days..
17 hours...
46 minutes and it starts...
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
680. IKE
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 11:09 (GMT)
Looks like summer is approaching according to the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Less than 6 weeks and the tropical season starts.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
678. CybrTeddy
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 09:48 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Morning,
Ike and Hanna will definitely be retired from the list. Ike is the 3rd costliest hurricane in US history behind Katrina and Andrew and Hanna killed hundreds of people in Hispaniola. Storms are retired based on their destruction to life and property rather than their intensity. Tropical Storm Allison (2001) retired but not Hurricane Emily (2005). Gustav is the other candidate and its highly unlikely Paloma and Omar will be retired.


Gustav shouldn't even be the other candidate, Gustav will be retired. Dolly and Hanna are the other two candidates to be retired.
They didn't retire Hurricane Gordan in 1994 that hit Haiti and killed over a thousand.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
677. Cavin Rawlins
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 09:32 (GMT)
Morning,
Ike and Hanna will definitely be retired from the list. Ike is the 3rd costliest hurricane in US history behind Katrina and Andrew and Hanna killed hundreds of people in Hispaniola. Storms are retired based on their destruction to life and property rather than their intensity. Tropical Storm Allison (2001) retired but not Hurricane Emily (2005). Gustav is the other candidate and its highly unlikely Paloma and Omar will be retired.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
676. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 09:21 (GMT)
is joking here..

no names will be retired because they are no match to the strength of Jangmi, which didn't get retired by the typhoon committee.

Don't think we'll know which storm gets retired until the beginning of the hurricane season.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
675. BahaHurican
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 08:46 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:

Let's hope we luck out again this year.
The Bahamas really lucked out last year. Take a look at last year's storm map, and u will see little "hole" in the storm tracks, right over the Bahamas. The two storms that directly impacted us last year avoided more populated areas, and, when one considers that only one major island was affected by Ike's cat 4 winds, it's practically miraculous.



I'm not sure what to expect this season, but neutral years tend to be more dangerous for us track-wise.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
674. BahaHurican
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 08:40 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, did they retire Noel? [can't remember] I doubt Paloma for the reasons u mentioned. Despite the high level of activity (and considering how many times Haiti got hit), I really think last season could have been much worse.
Hey, they did! OK, so, I'll go along with your prediction on Hanna, which was much worse for Haiti than Noel was.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
673. KoritheMan
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 08:36 (GMT)
Yeah, they retired Noel. Replaced him with Nestor.

The season could've been worse, true, particularly if Gustav and Ike didn't weaken prior to U.S. landfall.

Both hurricanes were actually getting better organized before landfall, as evidenced by radar and satellite imagery.

We're lucky that they moved inland when they did -- and they were still very destructive, despite both being only of Category 2 intensity.

Let's hope we luck out again this year.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
672. Cotillion
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 08:34 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, did they retire Noel? [can't remember] I doubt Paloma for the reasons u mentioned. Despite the high level of activity (and considering how many times Haiti got hit), I really think last season could have been much worse.


Yeah, they did.

Gustav and Ike are near certs, Hanna is a possible third. Think that'll be it. Though, Dolly's more likely to be retired than Fay considering the damage it caused.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
671. BahaHurican
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 08:28 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


While it's true that Haiti residents frequently get killed from even a tropical disturbance, it's equally true that a majority of the disasters there don't kill over 500 people like Hanna did. That, to me, automatically merits its retirement, even if Haiti is heavily deforested and vulnerable to flash flooding.

Paloma? Eh...I wouldn't bet on it, for the simple fact that damage in the Caymans was minimal [read: compared to what it could've been], and though the impact in Cuba was severe in some areas, it degenerated much too quickly after its Cuban landfall to cause any extensive damage over a prolonged period.
Well, did they retire Noel? [can't remember] I doubt Paloma for the reasons u mentioned. Despite the high level of activity (and considering how many times Haiti got hit), I really think last season could have been much worse.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
670. KoritheMan
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 08:20 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good chance on Gustav and Ike. I'm not so sure about Hanna, despite the impacts to Haiti (which IMO were as much a result of the previous two systems as anything else). Only other possibility is Paloma, but unless the Caymans request I don't see it going.


While it's true that Haiti residents frequently get killed from even a tropical disturbance, it's equally true that a majority of the disasters there don't kill over 500 people like Hanna did. That, to me, automatically merits its retirement, even if Haiti is heavily deforested and vulnerable to flash flooding.

Paloma? Eh...I wouldn't bet on it, for the simple fact that damage in the Caymans was minimal [read: compared to what it could've been], and though the impact in Cuba was severe in some areas, it degenerated much too quickly after its Cuban landfall to cause any extensive damage over a prolonged period.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
669. SWFLgazer
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 08:19 (GMT)
Surfmom: I read the story about the horses that died in West Palm. So sad. Any of them yours?
Member Since: 14.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
668. BahaHurican
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 08:05 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:
I think Gustav, Hanna, and Ike will be retired today (it's Monday where I live), with Fay a possible candidate.
Good chance on Gustav and Ike. I'm not so sure about Hanna, despite the impacts to Haiti (which IMO were as much a result of the previous two systems as anything else). Only other possibility is Paloma, but unless the Caymans request I don't see it going.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
667. BahaHurican
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 07:57 (GMT)
Quoting auburn:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
DARKNESS WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1040 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* DARKNESS WARNING FOR...
ALL OF THE USA...THIS DARKNESS IN MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD FROM THE EAST

DARKNESS CAN CAUSE YOU TO BUMP INTO THING SO TAKE PRECAUTIONS.

&&
This really cracked me up. . . lol

Aren't we going to get a sunrise warning also??? lol
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
664. Tazmanian
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 05:06 (GMT)
hi PE good night PE
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
663. KoritheMan
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 05:02 (GMT)
I think Gustav, Hanna, and Ike will be retired today (it's Monday where I live), with Fay a possible candidate.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
661. Tazmanian
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 04:40 (GMT)
i got 100 cows staning by for monday if they dont do the IKE storm
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
659. Ossqss
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:47 (GMT)
I had to click refresh before shutdown Patrap, ARgh. again. Thanks for leaving the Gravularity out of it. :)
Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
658. Patrap
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:42 (GMT)
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
657. Ossqss
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:41 (GMT)
I will leave you with this. It has been a very unusual weather season in all respects. Our Sun is no exception.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 24 days
2009 total: 96 days (88%)
Since 2004: 607 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
655. Orcasystems
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:26 (GMT)
New lighting is working in the Critter Pond
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
654. Orcasystems
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:25 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
649. Ossqss 11:16 PM EDT on April 19, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, maybe your spreadsheet can tell you?


Wait a minute, let me recalculate using a proven method.


Always nice to see you 2 have fun at my expense.....LOL


I would say that 640 deserved a reply
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
653. Ossqss
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:23 (GMT)
I really think that TampaSpin could set up a, pick your Canes for Charity pool 2009. Works for me, Tampa, can you make this occur?

All proceeds, except some, go to the voted on Hurricane relief effort. Hummm, could work and make the season a bit more interesting for all participants. Just my take. Any takers? or thoughts...... L8R

Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
652. Orcasystems
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:22 (GMT)
Quoting Ossqss:


Wait a minute, let me recalculate using a proven method.



You have that bookmarked, don't you
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
651. TampaSpin
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:22 (GMT)
649. Ossqss 11:16 PM EDT on April 19, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, maybe your spreadsheet can tell you?


Wait a minute, let me recalculate using a proven method.


Always nice to see you 2 have fun at my expense.....LOL
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
650. Patrap
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:17 (GMT)
Avalanches caught flowing on Mars

* 14:57 04 March 2008 by Ker Than


A Mars-orbiting spacecraft has captured the first images of avalanches happening on the Red Planet. A camera called the High Resolution Imaging Experiment (HiRISE) on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) captured the events occurring near the Red Planet's north pole on 19 February.

Most images taken of Mars show enduring landscapes that have changed little in millions of years. Avalanches can now be added to the short list of natural processes that have been caught shaping the Martian landscape. Others include global dust stormsMovie Camera, dust devils, and the formation of new gulleys.




Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
649. Ossqss
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:16 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, maybe your spreadsheet can tell you?


Wait a minute, let me recalculate using a proven method.

Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
648. Patrap
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:14 (GMT)
Global Dust Storm
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
647. RetiredOldMan
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:13 (GMT)
Looking at the EUROSIP, would anyone like to hazzard a guess as to which model shows the highest SST for the out months?

Member Since: 13.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
646. Patrap
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:13 (GMT)
GOES-12 Atmospheric Animations
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
645. Speeky
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:12 (GMT)
Global warming is getting greater

Our planet is changing

What will happen in 50 years?

Will we still be here. Or will the miricle of life slowly go away. 1 by 1?

Earth's climate is getting more extreme and we just have to endore it for the sake of humanity, and our species.
Member Since: 10.04.2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 292
644. hahaguy
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:11 (GMT)
Quoting Ossqss:


The proper term is Credits, learned from fantasy football. I am game.
What is your take and hopefully the Cyber person is still logging.

Show me the credits!

Just doesn't sound the same does it?

Do you accept Visa or paypal , not :)


My take is 14 named, 8 canes and 3 major. Sorry i only accept cash LOL.
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
643. auburn (Mod)
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:11 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


You made it into one of my Image posts today


Cool I am privileged...and probably banned from this blog...LOL...I am gone now!!!
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 546 Comments: 50254
642. Orcasystems
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:10 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


YOu could have at least told us dates and times up to the 1/10 of a Second also....Come on now...Lets get a little more specific please!


ROFLMAO, maybe your spreadsheet can tell you?
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
641. Ossqss
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:09 (GMT)
Quoting hahaguy:


Wanna put some money on that lol.


The proper term is Credits, learned from fantasy football. I am game.
What is your take and hopefully the Cyber person is still logging.

Show me the credits!

Just doesn't sound the same does it?

Do you accept Visa or paypal , not :)
Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
640. TampaSpin
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:08 (GMT)
Quoting Ossqss:
Someone called out picks in a previous blog and hopefully log the items.

I picked
13 storms
9 hurs
4 big boyz 2 at the same time, yeah, thats what I said or typed or texted or blogged

2 cat 5 one fish and one Yucatan

That is if memory serves me, which is questionable at best. LoL


YOu could have at least told us dates and times up to the 1/10 of a Second also....Come on now...Lets get a little more specific please!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
639. Orcasystems
20. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 03:08 (GMT)
Quoting Ossqss:
Someone called out picks in a previous blog and hopefully log the items.

I picked
13 storms
9 hurs
4 big boyz 2 at the same time, yeah, thats what I said or typed or texted or blogged

2 cat 5 one fish and one Yucatan

That is if memory serves me, which is questionable at best. LoL


Cat 2, NY State
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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