Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Space Weather storms

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 31. maaliskuuta 2009 klo 16:40 (GMT)

Twenty years ago this month, on March 13, 1989, I was aboard NOAA's P-3 weather research aircraft, bumping through a turbulent portion of a fierce winter storm in a remote ocean area between Greenland and Norway. We were searching for clues on how to make better weather forecasts for the regions of Norway and the northern British Isles battered by these great storms. Our 2-month project, based in Bødø, Norway, was called the Coordinated Eastern Arctic Research Experiment (CEAREX) . Today's flight took us through the heart of an extratropical storm developing at the edge of the sea ice that covered the ocean waters east of Greenland.

As I looked over at the white-capped, forbidding waters of the Greenland Sea, I reflected today's flight was not particularly dangerous by Hurricane Hunter standards, though the storm's tropical storm-force winds made the ride a bit rough at times. However, we were a long way from civilization. Should an emergency require us to ditch the aircraft in the ocean or the nearby remote island of Jan Mayen, we'd be tough to find unless we were able to radio back our position before going down. Far from any land areas, our communication life-line to the outside world was HF radio (ham radio), which relied on Earth's ionosphere to bounce signals off of. Three hours into the flight this life-line abruptly stopped working.

Figure 1. Sea ice swirls in ocean eddies off the coast of Labrador, Canada, in this photo I took during a 1989 CEAREX flight.

"Jeff, can you come up to the cockpit?" Aircraft Commander Dan Eilers' voice crackled over the intercom. I took a break from monitoring our weather instruments, took off my headset, and stepped forward into the cockpit of the P-3.

"What's up, Dan?" I asked.

"Well, HF radio reception crapped out about twenty minutes ago, and I want to climb to 25,000 feet and see if we can raise Reykjavik Air Traffic Control to report our position. We're flying at low altitude in hazardous conditions over 500 miles from the nearest airport, and it's not good that we're out of communication with the outside world. If we were to go down, search and rescue would have no idea where to look for us."

I agreed to work out an alteration to the flight plan with our scientists, so that we could continue to collect good data on the storm while we climbed higher. The scientists weren't too happy with the plan, since they were paying $20,000 for this flight, and wanted to stay low at 1,500 feet to better investigate the storm's structure. Regardless, we climbed as high as we could and orbited the storm, issuing repeated calls to the outside world over our HF radio. No one answered.

"I've never seen such a major interruption to HF radio!" Commander Eilers said, worriedly. "We can go back down to 1,500 feet and resume the mission, but I want to periodically climb to 25,000 feet and continue trying to establish communications. If we can't raise Air Traffic Control, we should consider aborting the mission".

I agreed to work with the scientists to accommodate this strategy. They argued hotly against a possible cancellation of this mission, which was collecting some unique data on a significant winter storm. So, for the next four hours, we periodically climbed to 25,000 feet, issuing futile calls over our HF radio. Finally, after an uncomfortable eight hours, it was time to go home to our base in Norway. As twilight sank into Arctic darkness, a spectacular auroral display--shimmering curtains of brilliant green light--lit up sky. It began to dawn on us that the loss of our HF radio reception was probably due to an unusual kind of severe weather--a "Space Weather" storm. An extremely intense geomagnetic storm was hitting the polar regions, triggering our brilliant auroral show and interrupting HF radio communications.

The geomagnetic "Superstorm" of March 13, 1989
As it turned out, the geomagnetic storm of March 13, 1989 was one of the most intense such "Space Weather" events in recorded history. The storm developed as a result of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the sun four days previously. The CME event blasted a portion of the Sun's plasma atmosphere into space. When the protons and electrons from the Sun arrived at the Earth, the planet's magnetic field guided the highly energetic particles into the upper atmosphere near the magnetic poles. As a result, the lower levels of the polar ionosphere become very ionized, with severe absorption of HF radio, resulting in my uncomfortable flight over the Greenland Sea with no communications. The geomagnetic storm didn't stop there--the storm's charged particles triggered a strong magnetic impulse that caused a voltage depression in five transmission lines in the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. Within 90 seconds, automatic voltage compensation equipment failed, resulting in a generation loss of 9,450 MW. With a load of about 21,350 MW, the system was unable to withstand the generation loss and collapsed. The entire province of Quebec--six million people--was blacked out for approximately nine hours. The geomagnetic storm also triggered the failure of a large step-up transformer at the Salem Nuclear Power Plant in New Jersey, as well as 200 other failures on the North American power system. Auroras were observed as far south as Florida, Texas, and Cuba during this geomagnetic "superstorm".

Figure 2. Red and green colors predominate in this view of the Aurora Australis (Southern Hemisphere aurora) photographed from the Space Shuttle in May 1991 at the peak of the geomagnetic maximum that also brought us the March 13, 1989 geomagnetic "superstorm". The payload bay and tail of the Shuttle can be seen on the left hand side of the picture. Auroras are caused when high-energy electrons pour down from the Earth's magnetosphere and collide with atoms. Red aurora occurs from 200 km to as high as 500 km altitude and is caused by the emission of 6300 Angstrom wavelength light from oxygen atoms. Green aurora occurs from about 100 km to 250 km altitude and is caused by the emission of 5577 Angstrom wavelength light from oxygen atoms. The light is emitted when the atoms return to their original unexcited state. Image credit: NASA.

Solar Maximum is approaching
The sun waxes and wanes in brightness in a well-documented 11-year cycle, when sun spots and their associated Coronal Mass Ejections occur. We just passed through solar minimum--the sun is quiet, with no sun spots. We are headed towards a solar maximum, forecast to occur in 2012. Geomagnetic storms are at their peak during solar maximum, and we'll have to be on the lookout for severe "Space Weather" starting in 2010. I'll talk more about severe "Space Weather" storms in my next post, when I'll discuss the greatest Space Weather storm in recorded history--the famed "Carrington Event" of 1859--and what damages it might wreak were it to happen today. An extraordinary report funded by NASA and issued by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 2008 says that a repeat of the Carrington Event could result in the most costly natural disaster of all time.

Resources
MetaTech Corporation's animation of the March 13, 1989 geomagnetic "superstorm".
spaceweather.com
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)

Jeff Masters

Categories: Atmospheric Phenomena

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401. HadesGodWyvern 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 09:12 (GMT)
Fiji Meteorological Services Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number THREE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-F 18:00 PM FST April 3 2009 ========================== Current Watches/Warning in effect A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY ISLANDS AND LAU GROUP. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI. At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1000 hPa) located at 14.7S 179.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots within 120 NM of the center, possibly increasing to 30-35 knots in the next 24-36 hours. Position POOR based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation. The depression is reported as moving slowly. Existence of multiple centers with one possible low level circulation center located north of Fiji and second center just south of Futuna. System trying to assimilate but organization still poor with weak banding to the north. System looks like a monsoonal gyre at this stage. Good surges feeding into system from the northwest and southeast. TD 14F lies in an area of low shear in a diffluent region very close to the 250 hPa subtropical ridge. Sea surface temperatures is around 28C. Unable to determine Dvorak. Dvorak analysis is based on PT. Thus T1.5/1.5/D0.5/ 24 HRS Global models are intensifying this system and agrees on a southeasterly track. POTENTIAL FOR 14F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH. Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36687

402. charlottefl 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 10:22 (GMT)
Morning everyone! Waiting to see what this squall line holds. Still a ways out. Windy here. Member Since: 18.12.2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

404. biff4ugo 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 12:37 (GMT)
I remember this day! I was on my way to see the space shuttle launch and the radio was staticy. It was cloudy enough that you could look at the sun and actually see the sunspot that ejected the mass. NASA launch the shuttle as if nothing was going on. It was a great launch. That night I saw the aurora down here in central Florida. It was a sinuous streak of dark dark red across the sky. No green shimmering curtains, just red and fairly static in shape. There were lots of UFO calls on the radio, with the electrical equipment acting weird, only local stations available in the car, the shuttle going up, it was ominous. Many people remembered NASA testing radio signals bounced off of rarified gasses 5 years earlier without telling the public "what was up" and it did look somewhat similar. It makes you wonder what an EMP would really do. Thanks for remembering that day. Member Since: 28.12.2006 Posts: 107 Comments: 1185

405. ftpiercecane 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 12:39 (GMT)
Should have some fun weather in florida today, lets see some rain. Don't know if that line around orlando will make it down here, but it should get interesting with the daytime heating this afternoon. Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 204

406. tampabos 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 12:44 (GMT)
I am having heavy rain in the Tampa Bay area now with high winds.

408. TampaSpin 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Looks like a new line of showers over Central Florida is trying to develop as the front becomes somewhat stationary. It won't go thru this big high as the front will ride over the top of the High! Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

409. conchygirl 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:13 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin: Looks like a new line of showers over Central Florida is trying to develop as the front becomes somewhat stationary. It won't go thru this big high as the front will ride over the top of the High! Morning Tampa - yes, getting very dark, drizzley and WINDY here! Member Since: 11.06.2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

410. TampaSpin 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:26 (GMT)
If you look at my blog and forecast i posted a NorEaster like Low would develop. Finally got somesthing right..LOL! http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/ Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

411. TampaSpin 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:28 (GMT)
Quoting conchygirl: Morning Tampa - yes, getting very dark, drizzley and WINDY here! Its not going much further South in my Opinion because of the High. Until that high moves or erodes it won't go through it! Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

412. stillwaiting 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:32 (GMT)
possible severe cells forming offshore 15-20 miles moving towards bradenton/sarasota's coastline w/arrival time from 10:15am-11:45.....possible hail,winds gusting over 50 mph,vivid lightning and blinding rain,if we're lucky we'll get .50-1 inch out of this,but I'm looking at some possible wind damage as the most likely effects from these storms!!!! Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

413. conchygirl 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Tampa - yep, doesn't look like it is moving much just kinda hanging out. They are predicting big, quick rains around noon. Member Since: 11.06.2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

414. TampaSpin 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Redoubt is about to blow its top soon. This could be the worst Explosion coming Yet. Pressures are building as a dome formed and when this dome collapses BIG BOOM will occur. It's coming soon. Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

415. surfmom 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:34 (GMT)
thanks Still - just what I wanted to know. I had marvelous surf yesterday -- Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

416. surfmom 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:35 (GMT)
410 -- you get a lot of stuff right Tampa.... Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

417. surfmom 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:36 (GMT)
You really think gust over 50mph????????????? cause I gotta bring in some stuff then..... geeze and I have three new youngster chickens..... Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

419. surfmom 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:37 (GMT)
Didn't grab the morning waves... afraid of that out of the blue lightening that can sometimes happen in these conditions. Now I'm pacing hungry for rain and then hoping I can snitch an hour... b/4 work in the ocean Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

420. conchygirl 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:38 (GMT)
Quoting surfmom: You really think gust over 50mph????????????? cause I gotta bring in some stuff then..... geeze and I have three new youngster chickens..... Put those new chicks in your room and spouse is sure to be pleased. Just kidding! LOL Member Since: 11.06.2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

421. NEwxguy 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:40 (GMT)
Tampa,if anyone is forecasting weather,your guaranteed to get it wrong sometimes,you do a good job,better than a lot of high salaried "weather experts". Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13128

422. surfmom 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:49 (GMT)
I think there's a new blog --otherwise I'm in two places at once........... so confused L:OL Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

423. surfmom 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Quoting conchygirl: Put those new chicks in your room and spouse is sure to be pleased. Just kidding! LOL He had a hissy fit when they came home the other night.... very foul (LOL) mood Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

424. stillwaiting 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:56 (GMT)
heavy winds 35-50mph now building off Sarasota's coastline moving ENE,will be arriving along the coast between 10:00-10:45am.....expect gusty winds,lightning,heavy downpours and possible hail...... Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

425. stillwaiting 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 13:59 (GMT)
looking over the gulf right now.......she looks like she's about to turn loose!!!!(black clouds,winds gusting already) Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

426. stillwaiting 3. huhtikuuta 2009 klo 14:01 (GMT)
there's, now a waterspout signature on tpa's tdwr radar's velocity about 15 miles due west of downtown srq!!!!! Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

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