Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Is the globe cooling?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:48 (GMT)

Recently, one has been hearing statements in the media like, the "twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming" and the Earth has been cooling since 1998. Let's take a look at the validity of these statements. The warmest year on record, according to both NASA and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), was 2005. However, 1998 was virtually tied with 2005 for warmth, and the United Kingdom Hadley Center and Climatic Research Unit data set (HadCRU) rates 1998 as the warmest year on record. The three data sets use different methods, such as how they interpolate over missing data regions over the Arctic Ocean, and so they arrive at slightly different numbers for the the global average temperature. All three data sets are considered equally valid, so ignoring two of the three major data sets to claim that the globe has been cooling since 1998 is "cherry picking" the data to show the result you want.

Furthermore, 1997-1998 El Niño event was the second strongest of the past century. El Niño events directly warm a large part of the Pacific, and indirectly warm (via a large increase in water vapor), an even larger region. This extra warming--estimated to have boosted the global temperature an extra 0.1-0.2°C--made 1998's warmth spike sharply upwards from the globe's usual temperature. The climate is best measured by a multi-year average of global temperatures, in order to remove shorter-term oscillations in weather patterns like El Niño. It is not scientifically valid to base a cooling argument on a year that spiked sharply upwards from the norm because of one the largest El Niño events in recorded history. A valid way to measure whether the globe is warming or cooling is to use the average global temperature for the past ten years or longer. The 1999-2008 period was significantly warmer (by 0.18°C, according to NOAA) than the previous ten year period, despite the fact the record (or near-record) warmest year 1998 was part of this previous period. Thus, it is scientifically correct to say the globe has been warming since 1998, not cooling. This warming rate has been about 0.16°C per decade over the past thirty years. Note that even over time periods as long as eight years, the average global temperature is not always a good measure of the long-term global warming trend--particularly if a large volcanic eruption in the tropics occurs.

How often should we expect to see a new global temperature record?
The climate should warm at a rate of about 0.19°C (0.34°F) per decade, according to the computer climate models used to formulate the "official word" on climate, the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thus, we should expect to see frequent "warmest years on record". However, 2006, 2007, and 2008 were all cooler than 2005, and 2008 was merely the ninth warmest year on record. We know that the weather has a high degree of natural variability, with warmer than average years mixed in with cooler ones. How often, then, should we expect to set a new global temperature record if the climate is warming in accordance with global warming theory?

Figure 1. Predicted and observed global annual average temperatures between 1990-2008. The thin colored lines represent 55 individual runs of the twenty computer climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report. These runs were done for the A1B "business as usual" scenario, which most closely matches recent emissions. The thick black line is the multi-model mean, and the thick colored lines with symbols denote actual observations, as computed by the three major research groups that estimate annual global temperatures. The sharp down spike in 1991-1992 is due to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, which cooled the Earth for two years. You can make these type of plots yourself, using the publicly available PCMDI IPCC AR4 archive. Image credit: Dr. Gavin Schmidt, realclimate.org.

The twenty models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (Figure 1) all predict the climate will warm, but with a lot of year-to-year variability due to natural weather patterns such as El Niño. Some of the IPCC models forecast periods lasting many years (in the extreme case, twenty years) with no global warming, due to natural climate and weather oscillations. If one plots up the cumulative distribution of these IPCC model runs to see how often a global average temperature record should be broken (Figure 2), one sees that the models predict a 50% chance that we'll unambiguously break the record every six years. By an unambiguous record, I mean a record that exceeds the previous one by at least 0.1°C. We've now gone ten years without unambiguously breaking the global temperature record, which the models say should happen 25% of the time. There is a 5% chance we'll go eighteen years without unambiguously breaking the record, so it is quite possible for natural variability in the climate system to obscure the global warming signal for periods of nearly twenty years. If we still haven't had a new global temperature record by 2018, then it is time to question global warming theory. If the theory is correct, there is a good chance that we will break the global temperature record during the next year that has a moderate or stonger El Niño event (and no major volcanic eruption in the tropics, since such major eruptions can dramatically cool the climate). Since we have La Niña conditions to start 2009, it is unlikely this year will break the record.

Figure 2. Cumulative distribution of how long one would have to wait for a new global temperature record to be set between the years 1990 and 2030. Image is based on the twenty climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report, using the A1B "business as usual" scenario. The curves should be read as the percentage chance of seeing a new record (Y axis) if you waited the number of years on the X axis. The two curves are for a new record of any size (black) and for an unambiguous record (> 0.1°C above the previous record, red). The 95% confidence line is marked in gray. The main result is that 95% of the time, a new record will be seen within 8 years, but that for an unambiguous record, you need to wait for 18 years to have similar confidence. Image credit: Realclimate.org.

Is global warming slowing down?
The global average temperature has declined over the past three years (Figure 1) and global average sea surface temperature (SST) has not increased over the past seven years (Figure 3). Is global warming slowing down, then, and taking a break? That was the theory advanced by a group of German climate modelers (Keenlyside et al., 2008) in the journal Nature in 2008. Using a climate model that offered a unique way to handle the initial distribution of SSTs, they concluded that over the next ten years, natural variations in the climate may temporarily mask the global warming due to greenhouse gases. They stated: "North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming". However, they go on to state that greenhouse-gas driven global warming will resume full-force after the ten-year break is over. Other climate modelers disagree with this predicted "break" in global warming. Both theories are reasonable ones, and it is possible that the recent cool years portend the ten-year "break" from global warming hypothesized by Keenlyside et al. It is too early to tell, since the relative coolness of the past few years could easily be natural "noise" (weather) imposed on the long-term global warming trend. The fact that we've had a cold winter in eastern North America and in the UK--or any other anecdotal cold or snow-related record you may hear about--can't tell us whether global warming may be slowing down or not. The amount of global warming over the past century has only been about 1.3°F (0.74°C). Thus, it should not surprise us, for example, if temperatures during tonight's hard freeze in Florida bottom out at 25°F, instead of the 24°F it would have reached 100 years ago. The long-term ten and thirty year trends in global temperature are solidly upwards in accordance with global warming theory, and claims that the globe is cooling cannot be scientifically defended.

Figure 3. Global average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1990-2008. SSTs have not increased in the past seven years. Image credit: NASA/GISS.

References
Keenlyside, N.S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008, "Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector", Nature 453, No. 7191, pp. 84-88, May 1, 2008

Further reading
2008 temperature summaries and spin by Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org.

My next post will be on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Climate Change

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951. ftpiercecane 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:27 (GMT)
Tampa, when will you be coming out with your next blog update. Looking forward to see your outlook on florida's long term forcast. Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 204

952. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:30 (GMT)
Quoting ftpiercecane: Tampa, when will you be coming out with your next blog update. Looking forward to see your outlook on florida's long term forcast. Actually im working on it now...Thanks....should be ready in about an hour. Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

953. surfmom 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:30 (GMT)
Good Morning... 53degrees and rising perfect postcard weather here in SWFL -- going to be warming.......... think I'm happy??? you bet..... De-frost is always better then freeze mode. Next set of ColdFront induced WAVES SWFL Really flat this morning. The latest models are showing a better S fetch for Wednesday and now it's a pretty sure bet to see some knee to waist high S windswell at the best S facers on Wednesday afternoon. That gradient relaxes after that and Thursday looks knee high range. So a brief shot a ridable waves coming for mid-week on the GC. THIS HAS MY NAME ON IT........ Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

954. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:32 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony: Emergency Climate Summit..(highlights) Scientists are to hold an emergency summit to warn the world's politicians they are being too timid in their response to global warming. Climate experts from across the world will gather in Copenhagen next month to agree a stark message to policy makers, which they hope will break the political deadlock on efforts to curb rising temperatures. The meeting follows "disturbing" studies that suggest global warming could strike harder and faster than expected. The meeting will publish an update to the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Richardson said the IPCC report was "wishy-washy" on issues such as sea level rise. "The IPCC talks of a 40cm sea rise this century. Well, if the consensus now is a rise of a metre or more then they need to know that." A number of "disturbing" trends seem to have accelerated since the IPCC report was published, he said, such as a decrease in the amount of carbon pollution absorbed in the oceans, and an increase in Greenland ice melt. But he denied that the new findings made the IPCC report obsolete. "They are not so radical as to undermine the report. They reinforce it." Sky its only 8:30 and your already posting emergency GW stuff.........Help me God please. Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

955. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:34 (GMT)
I hope the Earth is around for my kids next birthday and to Celebrate Christmas at least one last time...... Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

956. melwerle 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:35 (GMT)
I wish we could talk about something other than GW for just one day...ughhhhhh Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

957. theshepherd 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:38 (GMT)
Quoting ftpiercecane: Tampa, when will you be coming out with your next blog update. Looking forward to see your outlook on florida's long term forcast. Florida Long Term Forecast??? ROFLMAO Sorry Tampa...couldn't resist LOL,ftpierce Member Since: 11.09.2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 8336

958. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:38 (GMT)
I wonder how many of the experts will be flying to Copenhagen on a Jet. Im sure their not all riding trikes to this big meeting.......LMAO Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

959. melwerle 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:38 (GMT)
955. tampa!!! making me LAUGH. On that note, I think I'm going to go outside and burn some leaves, maybe smoke a cigarette or five and leave all my electricity turned on. Maybe I'll run the car too with the a/c on while I'm cleaning it. Anything but listen to the GW debate another day. Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

960. Skyepony (Mod) 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:42 (GMT)
I guess ya'll aren't smelling muck fire this morning like we are.. It's thick here. Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29944

961. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:42 (GMT)
Quoting melwerle: 955. tampa!!! making me LAUGH. On that note, I think I'm going to go outside and burn some leaves, maybe smoke a cigarette or five and leave all my electricity turned on. Maybe I'll run the car too with the a/c on while I'm cleaning it. Anything but listen to the GW debate another day. OH.....Mel and have a friska also.....it will calm you down some..... Would be nice if the GW people would do the world a favor and do in thier minds the right thing and turn their computer off.....wow...look how much energy they are using.......LOL Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

962. melwerle 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Good idea Tampa...turning the computer off and having a fresca...great idea!! Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

963. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony: I guess ya'll aren't smelling muck fire this morning like we are.. It's thick here. And you seriously think GW caused these fires.....tell me your kidding..... Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

964. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:46 (GMT)
Quoting melwerle: Good idea Tampa...turning the computer off and having a fresca...great idea!! Ok Mel i misspelled FRESCA........LOL.....heck....i was close...at least you got the idea......LOL Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

965. Skyepony (Mod) 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 13:53 (GMT)
TS~ What on earth would make you think I thought GW caused the muck fires? Yesterday I clearly pointed out Australia's fires couldn't be blamed on GW. I don't know if you noticed Dr Master's entry topic?? You do need a Fresca.. Just letting Mel know don't need anymore smoke over here.. What's burning in FL.. Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29944

966. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:04 (GMT)
I just thought of something......i wonder what would cause more harmful gases......cars that we drive or a Pony if everyone had one to ride instead of a Car.....think about that... Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

967. surfmom 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Morning Skye -- not happy to hear about fires your way...... we are a tinder box -- the frost made everything a crispy brown... not so bad a few days ago --everything was still wet from the rain.... but now...........pastures look like they could just go P O O F! Texas and Florida need Rain Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

968. surfmom 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:10 (GMT)
Sorry Tim -- the pony doesn't come close to leaving a negative footprint....a cow on the other hand has a different story Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

969. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Quoting surfmom: Morning Skye -- not happy to hear about fires your way...... we are a tinder box -- the frost made everything a crispy brown... not so bad a few days ago --everything was still wet from the rain.... but now...........pastures look like they could just go P O O F! Texas and Florida need Rain Surfmom you are correct.......this freeze in the deep south will play hell later in our fire season which will be coming up very shortly... Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

970. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Quoting surfmom: Sorry Tim -- the pony doesn't come close to leaving a negative footprint....a cow on the other hand has a different story But we don't ride Cows........LOL Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

971. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:16 (GMT)
Surfmom--Redoubt is acting like a very bad girl.....if you look at the activity......it appears to be very active but very far down...with alot of tremmors......don't know what this means.....but just my observation... Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

972. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Surfmom don't get me wrong......i love the 4 legged friends. They are one of Gods greatest creatures that have more instinct and feeling than most would ever imagine.........i was just making a point.... Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

973. Skyepony (Mod) 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Surfmom~ Sorry about your pastures. Same here, Cheerpony started pawwing up holes in the pasture lastnight, foriaging for roots.. Back to the dirt lot til we get some rain. Here's some pretty graphic sat pics & mapped fire areas from Australia. Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29944

974. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:21 (GMT)
BBL i have some work to do...... Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

975. theshepherd 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:22 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin: Surfmom--Redoubt is acting like a very bad girl.....if you look at the activity......it appears to be very active but very far down...with alot of tremmors......don't know what this means.....but just my observation... Tim Check out the activities at Gareloi,Pavlov,Shishaloin and Iliamna. Seems the spike at Redoubt was centered at Kasatochi. RSO station at summit went down some time earlier about an hour or so after the Harmonic Tremor(magma rising) reared it's head. Member Since: 11.09.2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 8336

976. surfmom 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin: Surfmom--Redoubt is acting like a very bad girl.....if you look at the activity......it appears to be very active but very far down...with alot of tremors......don't know what this means.....but just my observation... COWS: No we don't ride 'em but feed & eat them in large quantities -- they're the methane gas producers...horses provide far more utilitarian uses w/less gas. Redoubt is really bugging me...... it's like I want to say s--- or get off the pot already -- it's been like 12 days of angst.... but I honestly do not want to see this thing explod..... perhaps it's my ethnic background - Greek w/roots to Santorini - so I have a genetic fear of volcanos.... I'm not convinced the people who think they are safe will be safe..... so I'm quite concerned for Levi and AKsnowluvr........... I know that when we were by the base of that active Volcano in CostaRica -- I was like a cat on a hot tin roof --- I loved the experience of seeing the boulderS being expelled into the sky -- it was awesome, the sounds amazing..... but I can't remember ever wanting to leave a place so badly -- I was quite a pain in the butt to my spouse... I couldn't sleep being so close --- not the whole three days. Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

977. surfmom 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin: Surfmom don't get me wrong......i love the 4 legged friends. They are one of Gods greatest creatures that have more instinct and feeling than most would ever imagine.........i was just making a point.... all w/good humor Tim -- sometimes the typed word doesn't convey the twinkle in the eye. Hey Shep...... good to see you this bright warming morning....... I'm feeling a need to visit your coast as soon as Polo Season is over. Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

978. stillwaiting 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin: But we don't ride Cows........LOL Ever been to texas?????,lol Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

979. HTV 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin: Sky its only 8:30 and your already posting emergency GW stuff.........Help me God please. It's too early for Kool-Aid.

980. Beachfoxx 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Good Morning all! Member Since: 10.07.2005 Posts: 154 Comments: 29287

981. stillwaiting 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:30 (GMT)
they rid'em there!!! Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

982. surfmom 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:30 (GMT)
According to local fishing menfolk -- it's been gang busters here....... the grassflats that have been replanted are starting to really make a difference.... booming stock of trout and snook. we've also been spare (shhhh!) Redtide -- so the nurseries and fish population have made a come back.../. this has taken a good 5 years in my estimation Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

983. conchygirl 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony: I guess ya'll aren't smelling muck fire this morning like we are.. It's thick here. Skye: I am very near you and I don't smell anything. What am I missing? Member Since: 11.06.2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

984. surfmom 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:33 (GMT)
Quoting stillwaiting: they rid'em there!!! The cows???? LOL -- perhaps your thinking of TIPPING (that's when young buck males - not necessarily mine) - sneak into cow pastures at night when they are sleeping and push them over -- they kinda just tip over in their sleep Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

985. theshepherd 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:35 (GMT)
977 How long is Polo season mom? Suspect late March early April will be more to your liking at Sebastian. Member Since: 11.09.2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 8336

986. melwerle 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:39 (GMT)
984...Morning Surfmom! I went out cow tipping when I was much younger...note to all who might try it...make sure the fence that you are going to jump over to get out of the pasture is NOT an electric fence. It REALLY hurts... Talking about cash-karma! Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

987. Patrap 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:41 (GMT)
If one wants to rap,talk or insight banter on the GW.or AGW..get a Blog and do it. Dont bemoan the good Dr. Masters for his entry subject matter. There are scores of RAM for your personal slant's on the matter. He's the PHD,..not I nor any others we see here. Lord knows the joint is becoming a chat room for B.S. Last night was pretty ugly by any account. Cant wait for the First TWO. ..and Good morning. Geeezum Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

988. conchygirl 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:45 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap: If one wants to rap,talk or insight banter on the GW.or AGW..get a Blog and do it. Dont bemoan the good Dr. Masters for his entry subject matter. There are scores of RAM for your personal slant's on the matter. He's the PHD,..not I nor any others we see here. Lord knows the joint is becoming a chat room for B.S. Last night was pretty ugly by any account. Cant wait for the First TWO. ..and Good morning. Geeezum Good try Pat - they can't help themselves. Member Since: 11.06.2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

989. stillwaiting 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:46 (GMT)
Surfmom:They ride a heck of alot of bulls in texas,here in FL,the kids are more into picking fungi off the cow's patties,I think the days of our past(tipping over cows)are about over,not that I would ever do something so stupid!!!! Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

990. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Quoting stillwaiting: Surfmom:They ride a heck of alot of bulls in texas,here in FL,the kids are more into picking fungi off the cow's patties,I think the days of our past(tipping over cows)are about over,not that I would ever do something so stupid!!!! Liar........LMAO Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

991. surfmom 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Quoting melwerle: 984...Morning Surfmom! I went out cow tipping when I was much younger...note to all who might try it...make sure the fence that you are going to jump over to get out of the pasture is NOT an electric fence. It REALLY hurts... Talking about cash-karma! You are a "wild one" LOL -- Electric fence -- I'm laughing sorry -- Youngbuck is going to really roar when he hears that one.. we've had our share of electric fence stories... Patrap - nice comment 985 - on the nose Shep...Last game is April 5th -- just gets too hot here to play after that. Then they all move out (they're like rich "carni's") and go off to the next venue -- usually the cooler places in the country. so I'm looking to that spring warm-up.... want the water warm enough so I don't need a full wetsuit..... been too long since I've been fishing as well. Plus I want my time b/4 'cane season changes the flavor of everything. Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

992. surfmom 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 14:59 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin: Liar........LMAO ROTHFL -- HEE HEE HEE!!!!!! Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

993. Skyepony (Mod) 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin: I just thought of something......i wonder what would cause more harmful gases......cars that we drive or a Pony if everyone had one to ride instead of a Car.....think about that... This shows how little you understand the carbon cycle.. A car~ for every 6 lbs of gasoline it uses it expells 19 lbs of CO2 into the air. & the carbon from the gas was dug up from out of the ground where it was safely formerly stored... A pony~ eats grasses & plant fibers. The carbon in these plants were collected from the air. The ponys eat my lawn (saving the CO2 that would have been released from me mowing it). They turn that into roughly 2000 lbs of top soil a year that is perfectly fertilized (once it sits in a pile for 3-6 months depending on rain). This is used to fertize my lawn & gardens which also saves the CO2 that would have been produced from making lawn fertlizer (from natural gas that once was safely tucked away), garden fertlizer & it replenises topsoil, which is rapidly being depleated in the world. The garden in return saves the CO2 that would have been used to plow, harvest & ship my food. The ponys are my tractor, occationally they haul heavy loads around the farm saving CO2 that would have been put out by a tractor & I ride them on some errands & to visit friends who would rather have them eat their lawn then mow..saving more CO2 from driving & mowing. They do expell a small amount of CO2 as they breathe but so do you. And times like now with limited grass I have to buy from a local grower but the CO2 from cutting & bailing 80 or so bales a year is far less then the CO2 me & the family would consume without them. We really wouldn't be facing many of the climate problems at least not all gloom & doom if we all still rode & drove horses. Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29944

994. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Quoting melwerle: 984...Morning Surfmom! I went out cow tipping when I was much younger...note to all who might try it...make sure the fence that you are going to jump over to get out of the pasture is NOT an electric fence. It REALLY hurts... Yep i had an electric fence encounter also....touch the dam thing with my bare foot...while touching someone else......LOL Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

995. stillwaiting 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
am not.....lol :p... Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

996. AussieStorm 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 15:09 (GMT)
WHOLE towns have been declared crime scenes as the toll from Victoria's worst natural disaster leapt to 171.Link This will be my one and only post tonight on the Victorian bushfires. AussieStorm Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13764

997. Skyepony (Mod) 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
Quoting conchygirl: Skye: I am very near you and I don't smell anything. What am I missing? The sunrise:) Night creates an inversion & traps the smoke to the ground..It's all cleared now.. Either that or we don't live as close as we thought. By your lows last week I gather your closer to the river than me. I had a decent freeze this last cold snap. Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29944

998. Skyepony (Mod) 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 15:14 (GMT)
Aussie~ I'm reposting the sat images & maps for you.. I really feel for ya'll. Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29944

999. Seastep 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 15:14 (GMT)
surfmom - ran across this story and thought of you. I think it was you who said you have an avocado tree. Link Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3407

1000. Seastep 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 15:21 (GMT)
996. AussieStorm - Sympathies. Horrifying stories. 987. Patrap and 988. conchygirl - I've been darn good at biting my tongue. ;) I think my last comment on the topic was back around page 12 or so (50 view). Do I get a cookie? Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3407

1001. TampaSpin 9. helmikuuta 2009 klo 15:21 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony: This shows how little you understand the carbon cycle.. A car~ for every 6 lbs of gasoline it uses it expells 19 lbs of CO2 into the air. & the carbon from the gas was dug up from out of the ground where it was safely formerly stored... A pony~ eats grasses & plant fibers. The carbon in these plants were collected from the air. The ponys eat my lawn (saving the CO2 that would have been released from me mowing it). They turn that into roughly 2000 lbs of top soil a year that is perfectly fertilized (once it sits in a pile for 3-6 months depending on rain). This is used to fertize my lawn & gardens which also saves the CO2 that would have been produced from making lawn fertlizer (from natural gas that once was safely tucked away), garden fertlizer & it replenises topsoil, which is rapidly being depleated in the world. The garden in return saves the CO2 that would have been used to plow, harvest & ship my food. The ponys are my tractor, occationally they haul heavy loads around the farm saving CO2 that would have been put out by a tractor & I ride them on some errands & to visit friends who would rather have them eat their lawn then mow..saving more CO2 from driving & mowing. They do expell a small amount of CO2 as they breathe but so do you. And times like now with limited grass I have to buy from a local grower but the CO2 from cutting & bailing 80 or so bales a year is far less then the CO2 me & the family would consume without them. We really wouldn't be facing many of the climate problems at least not all gloom & doom if we all still rode & drove horses. Sky that is a great analysis.....Also, think of all the high paying government jobs we could create picking up the crap along the road....im sure that would really help the world economy....OMG! Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

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