La Niña on the way?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 23. tammikuuta 2009 klo 14:53 (GMT)

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A La Niña event may be developing in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, as equatorial sea surface temperatures cooled to 0.73°C below average in December, and have cooled further to -1.1°C below average this week. A La Niña event is defined as occurring when the 3-month running mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific cools below -0.5°C for five consecutive months. The 3-month running mean as of January 1 was -0.4°C, so we are still officially experiencing neutral conditions. Approximately 50% of the El Niño forecast models predict that a full-fledged La Niña event will develop between January and May of 2009. Our last La Niña event ended just eight months ago, in May 2008. It is uncommon to have separate La Niña events develop two years in a row. This has only occurred twice since 1950, so I give it a 50/50 chance that a full-fledged La Niña event will develop in 2009. One argument against a La Niña event developing is the current burst of west-to east winds that has developed in the Western Pacific. These westerly winds have developed as a result of a series of cold air outbreaks associated with troughs of low pressure, plus a periodic flare-up of thunderstorm activity called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. This burst of westerly winds has triggered formation of a 200 meter-deep, long-period, eastward-propagating ocean wave known as an equatorial Kelvin Wave. This wave has been marching eastwards over the past few weeks, pushing warmer Western Pacific water into the Eastern Pacific. As the Kelvin wave continues to propagate eastwards towards South America over the next few weeks, it should keep La Niña conditions from amplifying through the rest of January.

Despite the unusually late start to La Niña conditions this winter, the cooler water developing in the Eastern Pacific is capable of having a significant impact on regional weather patterns. We can expect during January-March 2009 above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and below-average precipitation across the South, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states. Other potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and above-average temperatures across much of the southern United States.


Figure 1. Latest three-month forecast of precipitation issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

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My next post will be Monday.

Jeff Masters

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374. conchygirl
27. tammikuuta 2009 klo 02:40 (GMT)
Quoting surfmom:
So I got this new T-shirt in the mail..... it's very hot... Just love the logo

HURRICANE IKE RELIEF HONOR WALK - w/IKE'S picture on it too! (thank goodness not Presslord in drag)

Buttt.. the best part was they also included Bumper stickers -- made my day!!
Hey SM...cool bumper stickers...another half marathon coming up week after next!!!!
Member Since: 11.06.2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
373. surfmom
27. tammikuuta 2009 klo 01:11 (GMT)
So I got this new T-shirt in the mail..... it's very hot... Just love the logo

HURRICANE IKE RELIEF HONOR WALK - w/IKE'S picture on it too! (thank goodness not Presslord in drag)

Buttt.. the best part was they also included Bumper stickers -- made my day!!
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
372. captainhunter
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 20:32 (GMT)
370. presslord

Aye,aye Press. His boat...his rules.
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
371. Orcasystems
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 20:30 (GMT)
Quoting presslord:
Quoting JoeCHecht:
>>Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.

I think the blog entry for "A La Niña event" should have included information on how this might effect tropical development, rather than how it may effect precipitation in the Ohio Valley :)

JCH

it's HIS blog....he can post his grandmother's diary if he wants to....


ROFLMAO, and people would still argue over it... somehow it would be associated with GW and have a carbon footprint
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
370. presslord
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 20:21 (GMT)
Quoting JoeCHecht:
>>Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.

I think the blog entry for "A La Niña event" should have included information on how this might effect tropical development, rather than how it may effect precipitation in the Ohio Valley :)

JCH

it's HIS blog....he can post his grandmother's diary if he wants to....
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
369. Orcasystems
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 20:19 (GMT)
If anyone has feedback on this system.. would like to hear it

Oregon Systems
WMR968 Complete Wireless Weather Station
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
368. atmoaggie
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 19:57 (GMT)
Just keeps turning out things are a little worse than we thought. If it was all bogus we wouldn't be about to lose another shelf down there or have had a such a major melt in the Artic.

I hear this, too. Could be just that better station info or more historical records were discovered, this was just the US records in these plots.

As to the Arctic: If we really are seeing a real low point in sea ice, it sure does correlate well to industrialization in the NH over our limited history of satellite measurement. My personal opinion is that it could have far more to do with non-white aerosol deposition than CO2. And at the same time we began limiting soot emissions (70s) a little continent to the far east soon after easily dwarfed our soot emissions with their own.

Soot on ice/snow would have the obvious effect.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
367. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 19:50 (GMT)
At 3:00 AM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 2 (982 hPa) located at 21.2S 115.1E or kms north of Onslow and 190 kms west southwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic is moving south towards the west Pilbara coast. Destructive gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may be experienced for a period in the Onslow region prior to the cyclone crossing the coast. Gales with wind gusts to 90 kilometres per hour may be experienced elsewhere within the warning area. The system is likely to cross the west Pilbara coast in the vicinity of Onslow mid-morning. The cyclone is then expected to then weaken steadily as it moves inland.

Tides will be higher than expected between Karratha and Exmouth.

Heavy rain is expected close to the cyclone's path.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Karratha to Exmouth.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
====================================

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.2S 115.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 23.5S 115.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 27.4S 119.1E - 20 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:

TC Dominic is nearing the west Pilbara coast, with observations at Varanus Island and Thevenard Island confirming 50 knot mean winds associated with the system.

Curved band difficult to analyse in Dvorak but final T number based on MET/PT =3.0 and CI held at 3.5 consistent with observations. Position based primarily on radar, with radar showing asymmetry and maximum winds in western quadrants of system.

Motion has been steady in a south southwest direction for the last 12 hours but may take a more southeasterly track after crossing the coast, under the influence of a mid-level trough to the southwest. The system is expected to weaken quickly once it crosses the coast.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
366. captainhunter
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 19:37 (GMT)
352. TampaSpin

Hopefully these successive blasts are depleting the store of extremely frigid Arctic air. Local mets here in Panama City Beach are calling for lows of 36 by week's end and that is welcomed compared to the 26 we got last week.
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
365. TampaSpin
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 19:29 (GMT)
If anyone would like to participate in a SuperBowl Pool check my Weather Blog out.....

TampaSpins Weather and SuperBowl Pool Link
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
364. NEwxguy
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 19:12 (GMT)
Tampa,by end of week another shot of cold air get ready for round 2,here in the northeast its called round 4.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 863 Comments: 15114
363. Skyepony (Mod)
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 18:31 (GMT)
atmo~ with the cry of how accurate could that be much data has been poured over & added since 2000. There's a group that does nothing but enter, record & preserve old weather records. Satellites had data recorded that wasn't utilized. Here's a recent article that discusses a "new" more complete temp history (scroll down) of Antartica. I think the 1999 one is just outta date.

Just keeps turning out things are a little worse than we thought. If it was all bogus we wouldn't be about to lose another shelf down there or have had a such a major melt in the Artic.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36167
362. pottery
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 18:25 (GMT)
Trinidad weather now-
temp 84 f (this is relatively average for this time of year.)
showers continue ( this is average too)

Rainfall for Jan so far 102 mm
10 yr average (my location) is 97 mm (about 4") for Jan.
This January has "felt" wetter, due to heavy rain in Nov and Dec, that have the ground saturated still.
Jan Rainfall varies a lot-
98=32mm
99=119mm
00=144mm
01=0mm !!! record
02=197mm
03=13mm
04=80mm
05=293mm
06=376mm record
07=120mm
08=75mm
09=102mm to date

any trends here, re nina/nino ??

Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
361. atmoaggie
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 18:13 (GMT)
Quoting biff4ugo:
#302
I don't know who published those graphs, but they do look bad. I wonder if NASA really did publish them or if deniers, made them and put NASA's name on it, for conspiracy proof purposes.



I hear ya. A healthy dose of suspicion required for most anything in that field is required.

The current plot from NASA here. From the page here. These are the 2008 data.

The 1999 plot is embedded in a pdf available here.

By eyeball only, I want to know how the 30s got cooler and how the 80s and 90s got warmer at the same time via an update to the data. The effect of one era cooler and another warming explains away an adjustment to the baseline.

Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
360. pottery
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 18:09 (GMT)
Thanks guys. I will study those things for sure.
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
359. N3EG
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 18:08 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Big High that was established on the WEST coast that was pulling all the Very Cold Temperatures South into the ConUS is setting up again........Temperatures will start falling Late this week and into next week....here we go again...round 2


Barometer 30.45 and rising here in SW Washington...
Member Since: 23.04.2005 Posts: 38 Comments: 224
358. vortfix
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 18:06 (GMT)
•Atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect La Niña.
•Negative equatorial SST anomalies persist across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean.
•Based on recent trends in the observations and model forecasts,La Niña conditions are likely to continue into Northern Hemisphere Spring 2009.

357. vortfix
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 18:03 (GMT)
356. vortfix
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 18:00 (GMT)
Here's the La Nina/El Nino page from NOAA Pottery:

What is La Niña?

355. pottery
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 17:58 (GMT)
Thanks Tampa. I understand that.
I am not clear on the "why" this happens. I guess it has to do with Pressure Gradients in the Atl. Basin overall ? And what would the reason for the lower gradients be. I realise this is a big subject to get into on the spur of the moment, so links to explanations would be cool, if you have them.
Thanks again.
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
354. TampaSpin
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 17:52 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:
Posts 348, 349, 350.
Well, to some of you guys, the entire thing is inter-related, and conclusions can be drawn from Dr. M's blog to relate to Alt. and Carib. storm systems.
But not all of us know that. I am not sure about the effects of the expected La Nina, and how they relate to this coming season.
I would appreciate more discussion on this one.


If La Nina is coming and it appears to be doing so.....that means the Atlantic will have much less Westerly trade winds in the Atlantic Tropical basin therefore less Shear and higher SST because the trade winds also helps cool the Atlantic basin also. Simply put, if La Nina holds on until May into June the Atlantic Hurricane season (history shows) should be very Active. In contrast would be the opposite with El Nino.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
353. pottery
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 17:46 (GMT)
Posts 348, 349, 350.
Well, to some of you guys, the entire thing is inter-related, and conclusions can be drawn from Dr. M's blog to relate to Alt. and Carib. storm systems.
But not all of us know that. I am not sure about the effects of the expected La Nina, and how they relate to this coming season.
I would appreciate more discussion on this one.
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
352. TampaSpin
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 17:45 (GMT)
The Big High that was established on the WEST coast that was pulling all the Very Cold Temperatures South into the ConUS is setting up again........Temperatures will start falling Late this week and into next week....here we go again...round 2

Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
350. fireflymom
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 17:37 (GMT)
Quoting JoeCHecht:
>>Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.


I think the blog entry for "A La Niña event" should have included information on how this might effect tropical development, rather than how it may effect precipitation in the Ohio Valley :)

JCH
Dude it is all interrelated.
Member Since: 5.06.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
349. TampaSpin
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 17:29 (GMT)
Quoting JoeCHecht:
>>Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.


I think the blog entry for "A La Niña event" should have included information on how this might effect tropical development, rather than how it may effect precipitation in the Ohio Valley :)

JCH



What.......LMAO
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
348. JoeCHecht
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 17:20 (GMT)
>>Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.


I think the blog entry for "A La Niña event" should have included information on how this might effect tropical development, rather than how it may effect precipitation in the Ohio Valley :)

JCH
347. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 17:10 (GMT)


Can barely tell there is a cyclone.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
346. vortfix
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 17:03 (GMT)
Photobucket

345. vortfix
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 17:02 (GMT)


344. vortfix
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 17:00 (GMT)
Photobucket

In the picture: Moisture ahead of a system system ("L") in the southern Rockies will encounter cold air surrounding high pressure ("H") in Iowa at 6 am on 01/27/2009. The result will be mixed precipitation across the center of the country.

343. Skyepony (Mod)
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 16:56 (GMT)
Guess Dominic's short life & land interaction never got the waves too high.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36167
342. TampaSpin
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 16:38 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
341. TampaSpin
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 16:35 (GMT)
This is not looking pretty for Southern Indiana......

Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
340. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 16:21 (GMT)
328. surfmom 11:42 AM GMT on January 26, 2009
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
you take care of yourself Hades..without you, practically no one here what would know what is going on tropic wise in the rest of the world.


I second that !!! many of us depend & enjoy your work!!

---
I will =)
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
339. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 16:21 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FOURTEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOMINIC, CATEGORY 2
12:50 AM WDT January 27 2009
===============================

At 12:00 AM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 2 (982 hPa) located at 20.9S 115.2E or 80 kilometres north of Onslow and 175 kilometres west of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 5 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic is continuing to move in a south southwest direction towards the west Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are likely to develop this morning. The system is likely to cross the west Pilbara coast between Mardie and Exmouth, most likely in the vicinity of Onslow, after sunrise this morning. Destructive gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may be experienced for a period close to the cyclone's path, however periods of gales are possible in all parts of the warning area.

Tides will be higher than expected between Karratha and Exmouth.

Widespread rain is expected in the western Pilbara with heavy falls close to the cyclone's path.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Karratha to Exmouth

The Cyclone Warning between Whim Creek and Karratha has been cancelled.

RED ALERT: People in or near Onslow and adjacent inland communities should move to shelter.

YELLOW ALERT: People in or near Pannawonica should be taking action in preparation for the cyclone's arrival.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Karratha, Dampier, Exmouth, Nanutarra and adjacent inland communities should be taking precautions. ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities at Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson are advised to proceed with caution.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
338. theshepherd
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 16:04 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:

What does the USGS call a rumble. Is it a M 1.1 or is it a M 5.0 ?????
They didn't say.
That may be the focus of their next research.
Member Since: 11.09.2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10030
337. AussieStorm
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 15:50 (GMT)
Quoting theshepherd:
USGS:
"New research shows the San Andreas fault rumbles every 137 years."

San Andreas Fault:
"New research shows the USGS ain't got a clue when I'm going to rumble next."

What does the USGS call a rumble. Is it a M 1.1 or is it a M 5.0 ?????
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
336. TampaSpin
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 15:38 (GMT)
Good Morning everyone.......
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
335. theshepherd
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 15:25 (GMT)
USGS:
"New research shows the San Andreas fault rumbles every 137 years."

San Andreas Fault:
"New research shows the USGS ain't got a clue when I'm going to rumble next."
Member Since: 11.09.2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10030
334. AussieStorm
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 15:20 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:
Dominic on MIMIC. There's an island that took the brunt & then has spent a while in the CDO. Looks to be weakening pretty quick now..

The Island that took the brunt of Tropical Cyclone Dominic is Barrow Island.
Barrow Island is located to the north of Onslow and to the west of Karratha in Western Australia's northwest.

The island became a nature reserve in 1910 after the island's rich array of flora and fauna was recognised.

Barrow Island is also rich in oil and is Australia's largest onshore oilfield. Strict environmental policies have enabled mining to coexist with the island's status as a nature reserve.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
333. AussieStorm
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 15:16 (GMT)

Onslow braces for Cyclone Dominic's fury
Article from: AAP


January 27, 2009 01:01am

THE residents of the West Australian coastal town of Onslow face a long night as Cyclone Dominic bears down on them.
Residents of Onslow and nearby communities have been told to take shelter and prepare for Dominic as it heads towards the Pilbara coast.

The category two cyclone is expected to cross the Pilbara coast at Onslow sometime early this morning.

The Fire and Emergency Services Authority (FESA) has a red alert in place for people in or near Onslow and adjacent inland communities.

A yellow alert, warning residents to prepare for the arrival of the cyclone, has been issued for the Pannawonica area.

A blue alert has been issued, ordering people in Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha, Dampier, Exmouth, Nanutarra and adjacent inland communities to take precautions as the storm approaches.

At 2100 (WDT) Dominic was estimated to be 105km north off Onslow and 160km west of Karratha, travelling south-southwest at 15km/h.

Gusts of up to 130km/h are expected overnight as Dominic crosses the coast at Onslow, 1386km north of Perth.

Warnings of a dangerous storm tide are also in place between Exmouth and Whim Creek, the Bureau of Meteorology said.

Widespread rain is expected in the western Pilbara with heavy falls close to the cyclone's path.
RADAR Link
Cheers AussieStorm
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
332. Skyepony (Mod)
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 14:38 (GMT)
Dominic on MIMIC. There's an island that took the brunt & then has spent a while in the CDO. Looks to be weakening pretty quick now..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36167
331. biff4ugo
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 14:15 (GMT)
#302
I don't know who published those graphs, but they do look bad. I wonder if NASA really did publish them or if deniers, made them and put NASA's name on it, for conspiracy proof purposes.

I am disapointed, I read that La Nina brought wet winters and springs to Florida. Now Dr. Masters says it will be dry.??? What is up with that?

PLEASE CHANGE THE WONDERPOLL!
It seems like it has been there for over a month, and still doesn't have a voting submission button.
Member Since: 28.12.2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1501
330. futuremet
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 13:40 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I see the high forecast for Super Sunday in Tampa proper is 68...Should be great game and super for the Tampa economy!


I second that
Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
329. AussieStorm
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 13:03 (GMT)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 9:45 pm WDT on Monday, 26 January 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth
including inland parts of the west Pilbara.

At 9:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 2 was estimated to be
105 kilometres north of Onslow and
160 kilometres west of Karratha and
moving south southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic is continuing to move in a southerly direction towards
the west Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are likely
to develop in coastal areas overnight. The system is likely to cross the west
Pilbara coast between Exmouth and Karratha, most likely in the vicinity of
Onslow, in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Destructive gusts to 130
kilometres per hour may be experienced for a period close to the cyclone's path,
however periods of gales are possible in all parts of the warning area.

Residents of Onslow are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS
STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides between Exmouth and
Whim Creek may rise above the normal high tide mark as the cyclone approaches
the coast, with very rough seas and flooding of low lying coastal areas.

Widespread rain is expected in the western Pilbara with heavy falls close to the
cyclone's path.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dominic at 9:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 20.7 degrees South 115.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 982 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Onslow and adjacent inland communities should move
to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near Pannawonica should be taking action in
preparation for the cyclone's arrival.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Roebourne, Wickham, Point
Samson, Karratha, Dampier, Exmouth, Nanutarra and adjacent inland communities
should be taking precautions.

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am WDT Tuesday 27 January.


RADARLink
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
328. surfmom
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 11:42 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
you take care of yourself Hades..without you, practically no one here what would know what is going on tropic wise in the rest of the world.


I second that !!! many of us depend & enjoy your work!!
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
327. surfmom
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 11:31 (GMT)
54 degrees this Monday AM in SWFL - I'm not complaining
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
326. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 10:00 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWELVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOMINIC, CATEGORY 2
6:50 PM WDT January 26 2009
===============================

At 6:00 PM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 2 (984 hPa) located at 20.5S 115.4E or 130 kms north northeast of Onslow and 155 kms west of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic is moving towards the west Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas this evening or overnight. The system is likely to cross the west Pilbara coast between Exmouth and Karratha, most likely in the vicinity of Onslow, overnight. Destructive gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may be experienced for a period close to the cyclone's path, however periods of gales are possible in all parts of the warning area.

Residents of Onslow are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides between Exmouth and Whim Creek may rise above the normal high tide mark as the cyclone approaches the coast, with very rough seas and flooding of low lying coastal areas.

Widespread rain is expected in the western Pilbara with heavy falls close to the cyclone's path.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth including inland parts of the west Pilbara.

RED ALERT: People in or near Onslow and adjacent inland communities should move to shelter.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha, Dampier, Pannawonica, Nanutarra and adjacent inland communities should be taking precautions.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
325. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 07:42 (GMT)
At 3:00 PM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 1 (987 hPa) located at 20.1S 115.6E or 175 kms north northeast of Onslow and 150 kms west northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic is moving towards the west Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas this afternoon or overnight. The system is likely to cross the west Pilbara coast between Exmouth and Karratha, most likely in the vicinity of Onslow, overnight. Destructive gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may be experienced for a period close to the cyclone's path, however periods of gales are possible in all parts of the warning area.

Tides between Exmouth and Whim Creek may rise above the normal high tide mark as the cyclone approaches the coast, with very rough seas and flooding of low lying coastal areas. Heavy rain is likely to be confined to coastal and adjacent parts.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth including adjacent inland parts of the west Pilbara.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
====================================

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.4S 115.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 22.8S 115.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 25.4S 117.6E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 28.2S 119.7E - 20 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:
TC Dominic was named at 03Z. System organisation has improved steadily and an average wrap of 0.7 was measured on afternoon VIS imagery giving DT/FT/CI of 3.0. Offshore observations indicate maximum sustained surface winds of around 45 knots, in close agreement with the Dvorak estimates.

After stalling overnight the system has increased translation speed significantly during the day and is likely to cross teh coast overnight or early morning.

Further intensification to Category 2 is very likely but given the narrow window of opportunity the system is unlikely to reach Category 3 [hurricane force mean winds].
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
324. theshepherd
26. tammikuuta 2009 klo 04:51 (GMT)
309 Bjanmamma
Ditto. I doubt we'll ever erradicate the mosquito by suffocating their babies. Indeed, it's the only water we "have" to throw on the fire currently. I figure vaccine is the only option. Most unfortunate for God's little critters in the wild.
And Ditto in reference to that "knothead" pottery. Unlike that Neanderthal theshepherd, pottery is "indeed" a silver tongue devil...LOL
Member Since: 11.09.2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10030

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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