TD Alvin - Baja California, Mexico |
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| Posted by: HadesGodWyvern, 1. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 02:40 (GMT) | +4 |
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90 °F
Vähäistä pilvisyyttä
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Snavely Subdivision (2.0mi NE Sterling)
Sterling, IL
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| Elevation: | 715 ft |
| Lämpötila: | 89.4 °F |
| Kastepiste: | 67.1 °F |
| Ilmankosteus: | 48% |
| Tuuli: | 8.0 mph from the Kaakko |
| Tuulenpuuska: | 19.0 mph |
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Updated: 19. toukokuuta 2013 klo 16:35 (CDT)
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Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
18:00 PM JST March 31 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.7N 109.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.3N 107.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) -- South China Sea --
45 HRS: 11.2N 105.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) -- Overland Cambodia --
69 HRS: 12.6N 103.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression) -- Overland Cambodia --
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 12:50 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18F
18:00 PM FST March 31 2012
=================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 18F (1002 hPa) located at 18.3S 170.0E is reported as moving southeast slowly. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.
Organization has not changed much in the past 24 hours. Convection has not increased much in past 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Tropical depression 18 lies just to the south of an under ridge axis in a low to moderate sheared environment.
Few global models pick up the system and move it southeast with some intensification.
Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
21:00 PM JST March 31 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.7N 109.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.5N 107.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) -- Overland Vietnam --
48 HRS: 12.1N 105.2E - Tropical Depression -- Overland Cambodia --
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 15:50 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F
0:00 AM FST April 1 2012
======================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 19F (1003 hPa) located at 14.2S 165.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 5 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.
Organization has improved and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Low level circulation center is difficult to locate. Tropical depression 19 lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. The system is steered southeastward by northwesterly deep layer mean wind. Sea surface temperature around the center is 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA.
Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further intensification.
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 20:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
3:00 AM JST April 1 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.8N 109.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.9N 106.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) -- Overland Vietnam --
48 HRS: 12.5N 104.6E - Tropical Depression -- Overland Cambodia --
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 21:50 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F
6:00 AM FST April 1 2012
======================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 19F (999 hPa) located at 15.8S 165.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.
Organization has improved and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. Tropical depression 19 lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment and is moving into an area of decreasing shear. The system is steered southeastwards by northwesterly deep layer mean wind. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA.
Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further intensification.
Potential for this system to develop into a cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains MODERATE TO HIGH
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 2:30 AM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
6:00 AM JST April 1 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.8N 109.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.3N 106.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) -- Overland Vietnam --
45 HRS: 12.5N 104.6E - Tropical Depression -- Overland Cambodia --
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 0:50 AM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F
9:00 AM FST April 1 2012
=================================
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 17F (1000 hPa) located at 24.9S 176.5E is reported as moving southeast slowly. Position good based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.
Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Low level circulation center exposed with deep convection displaced to the east. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Tropical disturbance 17 lies just to the south of an upper level ridge axis in a high sheared environment.
Global models pick up the system and move it south with no further intensification.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
9:00 AM JST April 1 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.8N 108.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.3N 106.2E - Tropical Depression -- Overland Vietnam --
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 3:50 AM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F
12:00 PM FST April 1 2012
======================================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR FIJI
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 19F (999 hPa) located at 15.7S 166.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.
Organization has improved and convection has increased in the past 24 hours. Tropical depression 19 lies under an upper diffluent region in a low to moderate sheared environment. Tropical depression 19 is moving into an area of decreasing shear. The system is being steered southeastward by northwesterly deep layer mean wind. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA.
Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap yielding T2.0. Final Dvorak based on DT, MET, and PT agree.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS
Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further intensification.
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:30 AM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
12:00 PM JST April 1 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.9N 108.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.4N 106.1E - Tropical Depression
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 6:50 AM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
15:00 PM JST April 1 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1000 hPa) located at 10.0N 108.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.7N 105.6E - Tropical Depression
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F
18:00 PM FST April 1 2012
======================================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR FIJI.
SEVERE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS, STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS OF VITI LEVU.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 19F (997 hPa) located at 16.0S 166.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.
Organization has improved and convection has increased in the past 24 hours. Primary bands trying to wrap around the low level circulation center. Low level circulation difficult to locate. Tropical depression 19 lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. The system is being steered southeastward by northwesterly deep layer mean wind into an area of decreasing shear. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA.
Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap giving DT=2.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS
Sea surface temperature is around 30C.
Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further intensification.
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
18:00 PM JST April 1 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 9:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1000 hPa) located at 10.3N 107.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.7N 105.3E - Tropical Depression
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 12:50 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
21:00 PM JST April 1 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1002 hPa) located at 10.9N 107.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots
Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND
Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 12.0N 105.2E - Tropical Depression
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 15:50 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F
0:00 AM FST April 2 2012
======================================
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI-LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS INCLUDING SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI GROUP.
SEVERE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS, STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS OF VITI LEVU.
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 19F (997 hPa) located at 16.5S 167.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.
Organization has improved and convection has increased in the past 24 hours. Primary bands trying to wrap around the low level circulation center. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. Tropical depression 19 lies under and upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. The system is being steered southeastward by northwesterly deep layer mean wind. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.
Dvorak analysis based on 0.25 wrap giving DT=2.0, MET=2.5, and PT=2.0. Final Dvorak based on DT.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS
Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further intensification.
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 20:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
0:00 AM JST April 2 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam
At 15:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1002 hPa) located at 11.2N 107.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots
Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND
Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 12.3N 104.9E - Tropical Depression
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 18:50 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
3:00 AM JST April 2 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1002 hPa) located at 11.5N 106.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots
Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND
Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 12.4N 104.5E - Tropical Depression Overland Cambodia ~
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 21:50 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F
6:00 AM FST April 2 2012
======================================
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, SOUTHERN LAU GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI GROUP.
SEVERE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS, STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS OF VITI LEVU.
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 19F (997 hPa) located at 17.6S 169.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.
Organization has improved and convection has increased in the past 24 hours. Tropical depression 19 lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. The system is being steered southeastward by northwesterly deep layer mean wind. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.
Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap giving DT=2.5, MET=2.5. Final Dvorak based on DT.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS
Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further intensification.
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 2:30 AM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
6:00 AM JST April 2 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1002 hPa) located at 11.9N 106.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots
Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND
Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 12.7N 104.1E - Tropical Depression
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 0:50 AM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER PAKHAR (T1201)
9:00 AM JST April 2 2012
================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Pakhar (1004 hPa) located at 13.0N 107.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.
This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE, CATEGORY 1 (19F)
12:00 PM FST April 2 2012
======================================
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, SOUTHERN LAU GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI GROUP.
SEVERE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS, STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS OF VITI LEVU.
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Daphne, Category One (995 hPa) located at 19.8S 172.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 18 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared and visible imagery with peripheral surface reports.
Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM in northeast quadrant
180 NM in southeast quadrant
120 NM in southwest quadrant
150 NM in northwest quadrant
Overall organization remains good in past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow restricted to the west of the system center but remains good elsewhere. The system lies in a low to moderate sheared environment and is being steered southeastward by northwesterly deep layer mean wind. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.
Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap giving DT=3.0. MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further development.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 22.4S 176.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 26.5S 179.6W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 33.9S 173.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Daphne will be issued at around 8:30 AM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE, CATEGORY 1 (19F)
18:00 PM FST April 2 2012
======================================
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, SOUTHERN LAU GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI GROUP.
SEVERE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS, STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS OF VITI LEVU.
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Daphne, Category One (995 hPa) located at 21.3S 173.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 20 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.
Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM in northeast quadrant
180 NM in southeast quadrant
120 NM in southwest quadrant
150 NM in northwest quadrant
Overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around the low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow restricted to the west of the system center but remains good elsewhere. The system lies in a low sheared environment and is being steered southeastwards by northwesterly deep layer mean wind. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.
Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap giving DT=3.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further intensification.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 25.0S 177.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 29.1S 178.3W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 34.1S 172.5W - 30 knots (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Daphne will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #11
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE, CATEGORY 1 (19F)
0:00 AM FST April 3 2012
======================================
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, SOUTHERN LAU GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI GROUP.
SEVERE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS, STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS OF VITI LEVU.
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Daphne, Category One (992 hPa) located at 22.9S 176.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 27 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.
Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM in northeast quadrant
240 NM in southeast quadrant
60 NM in southwest quadrant
240 NM in northwest quadrant
Overall organization remains good in past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around the low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow restricted to the west of the system center but remains good elsewhere. The system lies in a low to moderate sheared environment and is being steered southeastward by northwesterly deep layer mean wind. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.
Dvorak analysis based on 0.7 wrap giving DT=3.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on MET.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further development.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 27.6S 180.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 30.5S 177.5W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 34.0S 174.4W - 30 knots (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Daphne will be issued at around 20:30 PM UTC..
Storm Force Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE (19F)
6:00 AM NZST April 3 2012
==============================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Daphne (985 hPa) located at 25.6S 179.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 30 knots.
Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
240 NM form the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
240 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
The next Storm Warning from TCWC Wellington will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Storm Force Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE (19F)
12:00 PM NZST April 3 2012
==============================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Daphne (985 hPa) located at 27.8S 178.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots.
Storm Force Winds
=================
within 90 NM from the center in the sector from north though east to southeast and 30 NM of the center in the sector from southeast through southwest to north
Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM of the center in the southeast quadrant and within 120 NM of center in the sector from south through west to northwest and within 300 NM of center in the sector from northwest through northeast to east
The next Storm Warning from TCWC Wellington will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Storm Force Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE (19F)
18:00 PM NZST April 3 2012
==============================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Daphne (986 hPa) located at 29.8S 174.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 35 knots.
Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM of the center in the southeast quadrant and within 90 NM of cener in the sector from south trough west to northwest and within 240 NM of center in sector from northwest through northeast to east
The next Storm Warning from TCWC Wellington will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
6:00 AM NZST April 4 2012
==========================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Low, Former Daphne (997 hPa) located at 33.0S 171.W is reported a moving southeast at 15 knots.
0:00 AM NZST April 5 2012
==========================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Low, Former Daphne (994 hPa) located at 36.0S 169.0W is reported a moving slowly
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Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST April 8 2012
=====================================
Tropical Depression Near Midway Island
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 18.1N 179.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST April 8 2012
=====================================
Tropical Depression Near Midway Island
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 18.2N 178.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST April 9 2012
=====================================
Tropical Depression Near Midway Island
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 17.7N 176.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 18 knots.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST April 9 2012
=====================================
Tropical Depression Near Midway Island
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 18.3N 175.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST April 9 2012
=====================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 19.0N 175.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST April 9 2012
=====================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 19.0N 173.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST April 10 2012
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At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 18.0N 171.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 20F
9:00 AM FST April 10 2012
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At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 20F (1009 hPa) located at 19.5S 163.5E is reported as slowly moving. Position FAIR based on multisatellite visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.
Low level circulation center is partially exposed with deep convection displaced to the east. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 850 hPA. Tropical disturbance 20 lies to the south of an upper ridge in a moderately sheared environment. Few global models have picked up this system and are moving it southeastward with slight intensification.
Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-36 hours is LOW
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 20F
18:00 PM FST April 10 2012
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At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 20F (1009 hPa) located at 21.7S 166.8E. The disturbance is reported as slowly moving. Position FAIR based on infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.
Organization has improved slightly in the last 6 hours. Convection remains persistent. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Tropical disturbance 20 lies to the south of an upper ridge in a moderately sheared environment.
Few global models have picked up the system and are moving it southeastward with little intensification.
The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours remains LOW.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST April 10 2012
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At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 19.0N 170.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwet at 10 knots.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST April 11 2012
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At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 19.0N 169.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 20F
9:00 AM FST April 11 2012
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At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 20F (1009 hPa) located at 23.5S 168.6E. The disturbance is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.
Organization has not improved much in the last 6 hours. Convection remains persistent but is displaced to the east of the low level circulation center. Tropical disturbance 20 lies to the south of an upper ridge in a moderately sheared environment.
Few global models have picked up the system and are moving it southeastward and gradually weakening it.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST April 11 2012
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At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 20.0N 169.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST April 11 2012
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At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 21.0N 170.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST April 16 2012
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A weak Tropical Low, 1007 hPa, is located in the eastern Arafura Sea near West Papua. The low is expected to move west southwest during the next three days.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST April 17 2012
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A weak Tropical Low, (1006 hPa) is located in the eastern Arafura Sea near West Papua. The low is expected to move west southwest during the next three days.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST April 18 2012
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A weak Tropical Low (1006 hPa) is located in the Arafura Sea well north of the Top End coast. The low is expected to move slowly west southwest during the next three days.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST April 20 2012
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A weak Tropical Low (1006 hPa) is located in the Timor Sea north of the Tiwi Islands. The low is expected to move slowly west southwest during the next three
days and weaken.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST April 21 2012
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A weak Tropical Low (1007 hPa) is located in the Timor Sea northwest of the Tiwi Islands. The low is expected to continue moving slowly west southwest during the next three days and gradually weaken.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST April 25 2012
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A low pressure area has formed over Comorin Area and neighborhood and vortex centered within half a degree of 6.5N 76.0E. Dvorak intensity is T1.0.
Associated broken moderate to intense convection over Kerala adjoining south Tamil Nadu, Gulf of Mannar, Palk Strait, Comorin, southeast Arabian Sea, and Indian ocean between the equator to 14.0N and 67.0E to 79.0E (including Maldives).
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