Finally watching for development in the Atlantic - 7/28/12
Good afternoon and welcome to my tropical update for Saturday, July 28th, 2012. It's finally time to come out of my blog posting downtime because finally for the first time this month, some models are showing development - period. This month has been very benign with only one invest in the Atlantic, invest 98L that lasted for only a day. This is in thanks to the downward MJO phase over the Atlantic that has been present for over a month, combined with SAL outbreaks and persistent high wind shear over the MDR, has been keeping July to such a low key with activity.
(figure 1. Current satellite image of the Atlantic.)
What we are going to be watching this week and into next week is the possibility of a tropical wave emerging off Africa and developing in the relative short term. The GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS have all been showing off and on for the last week or so that this might happen, The GFS is starting to show 'some' consistency that a TD/TS will form off the African coast this week. Still a little early for CV season to get cranking, but it happens. The model kills it off once it reaches the islands due to high shear being there. This system would have to go north of the islands to survive and intensify, which is a possibility. I want to see more consistency, but it is within the GFS's vaunted 5 day accuracy period. Let's wait 2-3 more runs before we come to a conclusion on this.
(figure 2. 12z GFS 138 hours out with a system off Africa.)
CyberTed
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