UPDATE 3:50pm, Chris forms! - Watching two areas for tropical development - 6/19/12
Good morning and welcome to my tropical weather update for Tuesday, June 19th, 2012. We are currently watching two areas of interest in the Atlantic, the first is the previously mentioned invest 95L, and the second is the now being monitored by the NHC low in the Caribbean that we've been talking about for several weeks that could have a chance to spin up this week.
(figure 1. Current satellite view of the Atlantic)
Invest 95L not a threat to land
Our first area of interest is the one with the most immediate threat to develop - Invest 95L in the Atlantic north of Bermuda. Yesterday 95L became a bit better organized and warranted a 60% chance of development, but overnight the convection died off thanks to shear and went right back down to 50%. However, latest satellite shows that 95L is becoming better organized again and if it can maintain convection for another 4 hours then we probably will see this declared at 5pm as a tropical cyclone.
(figure 2. Current view of invest 95L.)
SPECIAL UPDATE: 95L is now Tropical or Sub-Tropical Storm Chris with sustained winds of 45mph. Details to follow at 5pm.
Watching the Western Caribbean for cyclone development
The next area of interest is a broad tropical wave located in the Western Caribbean. The situation has changed significantly in the models since my last update, as it appeared at the time that the remnant moisture from Carlotta would aid in development - that has in return gotten drawn into Invest 95E in the Pacific. It appears that the main trigger will be the Tropical wave in the Caribbean that is currently under 40kts of wind shear.
(figure 3. View of the Tropical Wave and the Gulf of Mexico)
The models are still all over the place but have come into a bit better agreement that the system will attempt to head towards North Texas while bringing rains to pretty much the entire Gulf coast. The GFS is being completely unreasonable now, it has the low being cut off from the convection by a trough that is way too deep for this time of year, thanks to the GFS over doing the upward MJO phase. I am going to discount the GFS from my forecast, instead focus on the ECMWF which shows the low pressure area developing in the Central Gulf and moving into Texas, but I do not think it will be as weak as portrayed on the ECMWF and farther north.
(figure 4. The ECMWF model out to 144 showing the low pressure in the Gulf, but nothing organized)
In summary, I do believe we will see some sort of development in the Gulf this week. The shear over the system should begin to weaken as an anti-cyclone begins to expand and take shape over the system, bringing shear to a much more favorable environment. The trough being shown on the GFS is way too amplified and the ECMWF is more realistic with the system being drawn north, bringing heavy rains to Florida before being forced westward into Texas. Interests from Florida to Mexico should pay close attention to this system.
CybrTed
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