Civicane49's WunderBlog

Invest 91E remains disorganized in the Pacific

Posted by: Civicane49, 24. toukokuuta 2013 klo 12:41 (GMT)

An area of low pressure (Invest 91E) centered about 550 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico remains disorganized. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains very limited and disorganized as seen on satellite imagery. The latest ASCAT pass revealed an ill-defined low-level center, which is exposed on satellite images. Although water temperatures and upper-level winds remain favorable for development, the system’s interaction with the monsoon trough would disrupt further organization.

Forecast for 91E
Despite its disorganized state, 91E has a potential to develop. Conditions appear to remain quite favorable for gradual development. It will be traveling over sea surface temperatures greater than 26.5°C threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation. Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain light over the system in the next several days. The main inhibitors I see for this system is the interaction with the monsoon trough as well as some dry air around it. All things considered, I give it a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. 91E should continue to move westward over the next several days as it will be steered along the southern periphery of the high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. The system could then move slightly poleward as the trough is forecast to amplify over the western United States by four to five days. 91E is highly unlikely to threaten land.

Figure 1. Morning infrared satellite image of Invest 91E. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There is an area of disturbed weather associated with the remains of the tropical wave located just off to the west of Costa Rica. Global models have been consistent in showing it becoming a tropical cyclone situating south of Mexico by next week. However, landfall is a possibility for the Mexican coast. The disturbance is expected to move westward and then west-northwestward in favorable conditions for development.

Civicane49

Categories:Hurricane

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Alvin weakening, may become post-tropical cyclone sooner than expected

Posted by: Civicane49, 17. toukokuuta 2013 klo 04:43 (GMT)

East Pacific’s Tropical Storm Alvin is weakening. The combination of strong west-southwesterly shear and interaction of the monsoon trough has disrupted the cyclone from organizing further. The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory stated that Alvin is barely a tropical storm with winds of 40 mph and central pressure of 1006 mb. Satellite images depict a poorly organized tropical storm with a disorganized cloud pattern. Satellite imagery also shows a cy...

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First East Pacific Invest (90E) has a potential to develop

Posted by: Civicane49, 14. toukokuuta 2013 klo 04:54 (GMT)

The first invest of the year in the eastern Pacific is here and has a chance to become the first tropical depression of the East Pacific hurricane season, which the official start will be on this Wednesday. Earlier today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated an area of low pressure in the far eastern Pacific; the NHC tagged it as “Invest 90E”. (For those unfamiliar with the term “Invest”, the information can be found on the Hurricane FAQ). Sate...

Categories:Hurricane

Updated: 14. toukokuuta 2013 klo 05:03 (GMT)

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Cold front approaching Hawaii, expected to bring wet weather

Posted by: Civicane49, 27. tammikuuta 2013 klo 11:17 (GMT)

Calm, dry weather should end for some of the main Hawaiian Islands later today as the cold front will creep in and move down the island chain, bringing the threat for locally heavy rain and thunderstorms. Satellite imagery shows a cold front associated with a robust storm system located northwest of Hawaii. The approaching front should reach the islands of Niihau and Kauai by the next several hours. In fact, the radar data depicts areas of moderate to heavy rain loc...

Categories:Severe Weather Flood Hawaii

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Wet weather for Hawaii on Christmas holidays?

Posted by: Civicane49, 23. joulukuuta 2012 klo 20:48 (GMT)

Trade winds that have been keeping the Hawaiian Islands cool in the past week has weakened as the high pressure ridge weakened and shifted eastward ahead of the approaching frontal system from the west. It caused the winds to shift from easterly to southeasterly. Showers will continue to favor in windward and mauka areas. There will be widespread sea breezes that would produce afternoon cloud buildups throughout the leeward portions of all islands, but conditions sh...

Categories:Hawaii

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