TS Alberto forms off the coast of South Carolina
We are at an early start of hurricane season both in the Atlantic and in the East Pacific. Tropical Storm Aletta had formed over the East Pacific basin just one day before the official start of this basin’s hurricane season. Aletta has now dissipated over the Pacific Ocean. However, we now have the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season: Alberto. It has formed thirteen days before the start of Atlantic hurricane season. According to the ship that is near Alberto's center, it reports that the tropical storm has estimated winds of 60 mph and central pressure of 995 mbar. It is located roughly 130 miles east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Alberto is the earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Tropical Storm Ana in 2003.
According to the latest satellite image and radar, Alberto appears to be a small and well-organized storm, although its low-level circulation is at the edge of its deep convection. The majority of the models are forecasting the tropical storm to slowly meander in its current area and subsequently move in the general northeastward direction and accelerate. There is a possibility that Alberto could make landfall in the Carolinas coast on Monday, as the storm moves northeastward. As a result, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) may put the Carolinas coast under the tropical storm watch later today. Regardless of landfall, the Carolinas coast would receive some rain and some high winds. The cyclone is located in a marginally favorable environment with moderate wind shear, relatively warm waters, and some moist air. Therefore, the storm is expected to intensify slowly before entering to an area of unfavorable conditions. Alberto is predicted to become an extratropical storm by the next 96 hours.
Figure 1. Latest infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Alberto. Image courtesy: RAMMB imagery.
Elsewhere in the tropics
In the eastern Pacific, a tropical disturbance dubbed Invest 92E remains disorganized on satellite images, as it is situated several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. The low pressure system is moving nearly stationary. However, the system can eventually become a tropical cyclone by the next few days and possibly become the first hurricane of the 2012 East Pacific hurricane season. The NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
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