Dry Slot

Near Miss

Posted by: Bogon, 29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 19:17 (GMT)

It's coming into woolly worm season here in the North Carolina mountains. I have been keeping an eye out for likely looking specimens that might consent to an interview.

Sunday I spotted one crossing the pavement. I was all set to walk over and check him out. I had my camera over my shoulder and a tape measure in my pocket. Just as I was about to go to him, two cars approached from opposite directions, a somewhat unusual occurrence on this lightly traveled country road. I stepped onto the shoulder to clear the way for the vehicle on my side, then prepared to cross to the woolly worm as soon as the other car passed. I was literally two seconds away, when the black SUV squashed the caterpillar.

I can't blame the driver, because he was exactly where he was supposed to be, dead center in the right lane. It was the woolly worm's misfortune to be in precisely the wrong place at the wrong time. You should have seen him hustling to get there.

I snapped a photo of the grisly remains for forensic purposes. Eventually I hope to submit this photo to a Higher Authority as evidence of a crime to be adjudicated and redressed. What had the innocent insect done to deserve such a cruel fate? What capricious puppeteer had contrived to entangle his fate with mine? (Hopefully not the same Higher Authority on Whom I will be relying to try the case...)

Obviously my woolly worm report must be delayed a little longer. In a few days, when I get home again, I can upload the sad image of the flattened caterpillar. Seems to me there might be some difference of opinion on this subject, so please leave a comment, either pro or con. I imagine the boys will cry, "Yeah, yeah, we wanna see!", while the girls implore, "Eww, no, please don't!", but that may just be me projecting my own fantasies and delusions. 8o]

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Updated: 14. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 06:49 (GMT)

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Heat and Light

Posted by: Bogon, 14. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:06 (GMT)

The wrangle about global warming and climate change is a hot topic :o) at Weather Underground and in the world at large. Much of what I hear seems calculated to generate more heat than light. That bugs me. So I'm going to set aside woolly worms and blob watching for a minute and uncork a rant. Here it comes.

Global Warming versus Climate Change

There are two terms that are commonly bandied about in this debate; I want to take a look at them first. Perhaps later we can think about data. People on every side of the debate marshal data in support of their positions: charts, graphs, satellite photos, orbit calculations and so on. People on one side generally seek to question, undermine and refute the other side's data. One thing I think we can agree on, because we have a lot of data from impeccable sources gathered over many generations, is that it's a good idea to consider what you're talking about before you open your mouth.

So what do we mean when we say "climate change"?
Well, climate is about weather patterns averaged over time. I don't believe there is an official definition of how much time, exactly, it takes to characterize climate. For an individual human being a hundred years is a long time. For a society or nation a thousand years is a long time. To span all of human history, you'd have to reckon on the order of ten thousand years. Much longer than that, and you're talking about geologic time. For the purposes of this discussion I doubt that it's useful to try to define climate over millions or billions of years. Obviously weather patterns change grossly over the eons. The sun's output fluctuates; the earth's orbit weaves and wobbles; continents drift to and fro. Ice ages came and went while the human species evolved. Let's pick a thousand years as a ballpark upper limit on time span over which we may integrate weather to determine climate. That's longer than a lifetime, shorter than a geological epoch. I want to be able to say, for example, that it's subtropical in Miami and snows a lot in Buffalo. It is reasonable to make that kind of assertion based on observations recorded over the last several hundred years. We want to talk about what is 'normal' for an area. If it suddenly starts to snow a lot in Miami, then we might wish to consider whether Miami's climate is changing.

How do we draw the line? How do we decide whether weather at a particular location is normal or not? Ultimately it's a judgment call, guided by experience. You look at the record. Here's where it gets tricky: there is no unified comprehensive data set. There are shiny new records and moldy old records. There are discontinuous records collected by diverse people with different skills and motivations using various instruments and methodologies. All these data have to be collated and interpreted. Sometimes interpretation might be as simple as reading a newspaper. Or it might entail minute observation of tree rings, ice cores, or layers of sediment. When it comes to finding evidence of past climate, the definition of 'record' may be rather broad, depending on how much energy and ingenuity you can bring to bear.
Is the climate changing? You bet. It changes all the time. We have historical records of climate change. The sun, the driving force behind weather, is a dynamic star with oscillations and cycles occurring on different time scales. The earth's motion around the sun is chaotic. The interaction of the oceans and atmosphere in response to solar forcing is likewise unpredictable. We humans recognize patterns in the chaos because that is what we do. We are built for pattern recognition.

What is "global warming"?
We're talking about a worldwide increase in temperature. More specifically, in the context of the current debate the temperature increase is assumed to occur as a result of human activity.
Is global warming happening? Absolutely. Humans generate heat. They emit greenhouse gases. They change earth's albedo. The more humans there are (There are a lot! Humans are far and away the most numerous large animal on the planet.) and the more their technology advances, the more capable they are of changing their environment. Can they warm the world enough to noticeably alter the climate where you live? Probably. If not now, then soon. During my lifetime the population of the world has doubled. I can feel my elbow room shrinking. I believe that there is ample evidence that humans are affecting the climate. Your mileage may vary.
Of course, nature still holds the high cards in the climate game. It's possible that a cooling sun, or a changing orbit, or some other massive natural effect will completely overwhelm the human blip. But will it? We don't know.

Compared to the time scales over which we measure climate, we, as individuals, are ephemeral. We expect climate change to occur slowly. The globe girdling technology we use to collect, analyze and model climate data is new. We haven't had time to accumulate a thousand-year series of satellite photos. (I can remember a time before satellites. There was only the moon... then there was sputnik!) Since we don't possess detailed information about great climate-changing events, we can't really say how finely balanced the earth's climate system is. We understand that some kinds of changes are self-reinforcing. Take cooling, for instance. As the earth cools, snow and ice cover more and more of its surface. Snow and ice are white and reflect most of the sunlight falling on them. The planet's albedo increases. Instead of warming the earth, the reflected radiation escapes back into space. As a result the earth gets colder and colder. Cyberneticists call this positive feedback. If cooling goes on long enough, eventually conditions reach a tipping point, and everything changes. That is how an ice age can get started. Climatologists conjecture that there may be a tipping point for warming as well. Melting ice and snow uncover darker soil or ocean underneath, decreasing the earth's albedo, leading to additional warming, which melts more snow etc. Eventually all the ice melts, the level of the oceans rises hundreds of feet, and the weather is comparatively warm even at the poles. Both scenarios, global hot and global cold, have happened before. There is evidence that sometimes the climate can tip from one state to another within a short time, climatologically speaking, perhaps on the order of a century.

So what's all the fuss about?
We know that climate change can and does occur. We know that humans contribute to global warming. Why all the controversy?
The major sticking point, the unanswered question, is: what are we going to do about it?
A. Some people think it is criminally irresponsible to run what amounts to an uncontrolled experiment on our one and only habitable planet. They think the future of the human race (and every other terrestrial species) is at stake. They believe we should all do whatever it takes to keep the planet healthy. They counsel prudence and good stewardship. They would turn over to their children a world in as good shape, or better, than the one they inherited from their ancestors.
B. Some people seem to think that the earth can handle whatever abuse we dish out. Or they imagine that dealing with the results of unsustainable growth will be somebody else's problem. They want business as usual.
C. Some people are betting on technology. They suppose that either breakthroughs in clean technology will come in time to save the world, or that by the time this planet is too stressed to support Life As We Know It, cheap and reliable space travel will enable them to move across the high frontier. They can't be bothered to pick up their trash.
D. Some people don't think about this issue at all. They're just here for the pizza.

There you have it. If you put representatives of each of these groups into a room, you have a recipe for an argument. It's like a rule, a perverse aspect of human nature, that the dispute seems more important than the outcome. The result is that we all fiddle, metaphorically speaking, while Rome burns.

I have classified this opus as a rant, and I have done so because it makes things easier for me. I can spout my observations and opinions without supplying references or documentation. I can lay out what was on my mind full speed ahead (and damn the torpedoes!) with no lengthy explanation or background. What you see is what you get.

This entry was created in a text editor, then pasted into WU's blog window. I'm going to make a second pass through the text to add hypertext linkage in lieu of the aforementioned conscientious references, bibliography etc. Most of the links will be served from Wikipedia. Please don't construe this as an endorsement of Wikipedia, but the folks there do supply references, bibliography, sources and cross-references if you want them. You can free associate across the internet or visit the library to satisfy your curiosity, if any.

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Updated: 14. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 06:29 (GMT)

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Back in the Saddle Again

Posted by: Bogon, 10. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:49 (GMT)

After spending about two weeks at my parents' place, I'm happy to report that I'm safe at home this morning. The wife and cats seem happy to see me, too.

The weather word from Burlington: dry. In case you're wondering, that condition was the inspiration for this blog's title. I plan to document some of my observations on that topic... soon.

Meanwhile, the most interesting weather news I have to report is now a day old. Yesterday was too busy for blogging. I had to wrap up family stuff, pack, wait for a rainstorm to pass, say goodbye, drive 230 miles, say hello, unpack, eat pizza, install two weeks worth of updates on two computers (I am The Administrator!) and download photos from my camera. By then it was sleepy time.

As I was saying, all the interesting weather was at the far end of the journey. Around 4:00 o'clock Wednesday morning a small thunderstorm crossed Madison County, NC, where I was deep in dreamland. The storm was small in areal extent as depicted on radar, but it made up in violence what it lacked in size. I was awakened by the sound of thunder and hail striking the windows. Hail fell steadily for the duration of the storm.

When it was over, I padded barefoot onto the front porch to survey the aftermath. The hail appeared to be uniformly pea sized. There was enough of it to cover the ground in a layer of translucent white. (I took a picture, but it didn't come out well. My little flashbulb couldn't illuminate all outdoors. The lens captured about six feet of the front walk, dimly. Peering blearily through the viewfinder in the wee hours of the morning I lacked the presence of mind to set up a time exposure. Didn't bring my tripod either.) The pounding pellets had made a slaw of tree leaves, shrubbery and flowers. Chill fog rose from the icy ground. It was an eerie scene on what had been, until ten minutes earlier, a peaceful September night.

Later, by daylight, I had to wash green salad off my car. There are undoubtedly still bits of foliage stuck in the cracks and crevices despite my best efforts augmented by 3½ hours of gale-force highway wind.

Earlier I mentioned that my departure was delayed by an afternoon shower. I chose to wait it out rather than drive in the rain. My car was loaded, I was impatient to leave, but Mom caused additional delay by suddenly recalling a list of last-minute issues. (It happens every time. Go, Mom.) As it turned out, though, her timing was impeccable. I was worried that I would overtake the rain storm and end up watching windshield wipers anyhow. Not to worry; for a hundred miles the road had that damp, just-finished-raining look.

Then I was back in the Dry Slot. It's good to be home.

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Updated: 14. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 06:24 (GMT)

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Second Thoughts

Posted by: Bogon, 7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:32 (GMT)

I've been thinking it over, and I think there is at least some small chance of an error in my woolly worm report.

For instance, I did not allow for individual variation in the woolly worm population. My report was based on a single specimen. Who knows? That caterpillar could have been a mutant or a member of a radical fringe group. The proper way to get a feel for the consensus of the population as a whole would be to conduct a poll.

There is also a faint possibility of misidentification on my part. It was a worm; it was woolly. But it might not have been the official Pyrrharctia isabella.

Woolly Worm

Let me be the first to admit that there is an area at the intersection of taxonomy and entomology where my knowledge has gaps in it wide enough to drive a caterpillar through.

Caterpillar Dozer

Caterpillar Negotiating Lacuna

Already today I have seen two additional woolly caterpillars. I am certain that these were NOT the fabled woolly bear, because they were the wrong color (yellow with black tufts). Unless, of course, there is a larger woolly bear conspiracy, and these were sent in disguise to confuse me.

I'll, uh... I'll keep an eye out for more woolly worms and let you know what I find out. I'll also keep a weather eye peeled. 'Weather' is the watchword.

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Updated: 16. elokuuta 2010 klo 03:07 (GMT)

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Labor Daze

Posted by: Bogon, 5. syyskuuta 2009 klo 07:32 (GMT)

Man, keeping up this blog is harder than I thought. I mean, typing words is pretty easy, but thinking up things to say is hard.

I could blame it on time. It's hard to find enough time sometimes. Much as I hate to say it, sometimes life calls me away from the computer. And even when I'm comfortably jacked into cyberspace, there are lots of distractions that may deter me from visiting Weather Underground. And even when I'm logged onto WU, there's lots to do besides maintaining this log. Alas, gentle reader, sometimes you are going to end up on the short end of the stick. Nothing personal, it's just the Isness of Being.

Summer is threatening to make a comeback. Though Jack Frost may now be heard occasionally kibbitzing in the background, summer has too much vim and too much momentum to cede the arena without a fight. I do believe there is more perspiration in my future.

Got some corroboration for that today from a local woolly worm, noted weather expert touted in, for example, the Old Farmer's Almanac. This particular caterpillar was all brown, stem to stern. I think that means we'll have no winter whatsoever.

Alas, that prediction seems to be at odds with Grandpa's maple. I wonder, should I take the average of the two observations, or should I look for additional signs and portents to break the tie? This weather prognostication business is not for the fainthearted.

All year long we've noted a persistent pattern with a big low somewhere up around Hudson Bay. That pattern has kept it relatively cool and dry in the eastern U. S. I mean, as hot as it has been for the last couple of months, it could have been worse.

Our prevalent pattern was set up by last year's La Niña and a Pacific Decadal Oscillation entering its cool phase. Now the equatorial Pacific is warming. It takes a while, maybe a season or two, for changing dynamics to establish a new pattern. Sooner or later El Niño will be calling the tune hereabouts. The question is, will we follow last year's pattern and have a hard winter, or will the new warmer regime become established in time to paint a more moderate picture?

I'm pretty sure the woolly worm is betting on El Niño.

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Updated: 14. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 06:11 (GMT)

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