Heavy Snow Squalls for Northeast Post Storm...
A double low system will move through the Northeast generally with heavy rain for most areas along with some wintry precipitation for northern New England. Behind the low complex, arctic air will move across the region in correspondence with a very impressive jet streak. This vortex will enhance an area of snow squalls, which will affect many areas with advisory or sub advisory snows. Flash freezes are likely for many areas on Friday along with an increasing lake effect snow cyclonic flow. Winter will be in full force on Friday and Saturday. Winds will also increase to advisory criteria.
Current Surface Plot...
(Courtesy of HPC)
Thoughts on January 11-14 Storm System and Lake Effect Snow...
2-5pm Wednesday: Strong WAA and a southerly jet will continue to allow temperatures to rise over the region in correspondence with the max diurnal heating of the day. 1pm surface observations indicate temperatures above freezing for all locations across Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Also temperatures across New England are above freezing given clear skies on the visible satellite. Dew points are beginning to rise across southern areas as the southerly jet increases moisture and milder temperatures. A departing 1024mb anticyclone over New England will allow a CAD situation to unfold for northerly locations across New York State, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Maine. By 5pm rain will be spreading across Pennsylvania and New Jersey with rates around .1in/hr in some areas. Cirrus will begin to thicken over New England by evening preventing temperatures from falling due to radiational cooling. Therefore temperatures will range from 34-38F across the areas north of the Massachusetts Pike into Vermont and New Hampshire. Dew points will remain in the 20s.
5-10pm Wednesday: Stratiform rain will continue to spread over the entire Northeast edging into southern New England. Rates will range from .1in/hr to .2in/hr especially towards New Jersey. As rain moves into areas north of the MA pike, evaporational cooling will allow for a quick drop in H85 thermals below 0C. But WAA will prevail under a strengthening LLJ. Any snow will not last as guidance indicates a mid level warm layer around 925mb. Snow accumulations will generally be under 1in as far north as southern Vermont and New Hampshire. As the warm tongue positions across southern New England, sleet will increase in some areas from Worcester on northward. Sleet amounts will also remain below 1in. 2m temperatures will fall from the mid to upper 30s into the lower 30s. Rain will fall heavy by 10pm over parts of Maryland and Washington DC with QPF totals up to .75in up to this point.
10pm-12am Wednesday- As WAA continues to increase thermal heights over southern New England, any sleet will change to freezing rain. This will be prevalent across parts of the Adirondacks through the Green and White Mountains. Freezing rain will also occur across the Berkshires and as far south as the hills near Worcester. But 2m temperatures will rise from the low 30s into the upper 30s slowly. Any freezing rain amounts will be less than .1in. Rain will begin to end across southern areas by early morning Thursday with QPF totals around 1in near Washington DC.
12am-4am Thursday: The double barrel low will begin to move up through Pennsylvania and New York state with H85s increasing to near +5C over southern Pennsylvania. Rain will be ending as far north as the Mason-Dixon line. An increasing southerly flow will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 40s into the I-95 corridor from Connecticut on southward. The anticyclone to the northeast will begin to weaken and depart allowing the confluence flow to wane. Heavy snow will begin to fall across northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire will amounts around 4-6in. 925mb temperatures will rise to near +1C to the Canadian border changing any snow to sleet and freezing rain. The surface lows will be rapidly advancing into Canada quickly shutting off precipitation as far north as the tristate region.
4am-8am Thursday: This period will feature any wintry precipitation changing to light rain and drizzle over southern New England. Total QPF in this region will be around 1-1.25 inches. Heavy snow will be falling across northern Maine. Amounts will exceed warning criteria in this small area. Meanwhile an arctic front will begin to move into the eastern Great Lakes. Clouds and warmer air across the entire Northeast will only provide areas of drizzle and low level fog. Temperatures will rise into the lower 50s across the I-95 corridor. Any ice or snow that accumulated along and south of the MA pike will quickly melt even across Pennsylvania and New York State in the higher elevations.
8am-2pm Thursday: The arctic front and associated ULL over Ohio will quickly advance towards western Pennsylvania at the end of this period. A bit of sunshine may occur in the dirty warm sector especially for southern and eastern areas. H85s will drop below 0C once again into western New York and western Pennsylvania. Generally cloudy with occasional drizzle and mild temperatures will be ongoing across the entire Northeast. Any snow or sleet over northern Maine will begin to come to an end.
2pm-8pm Thursday: A 992mb low over Michigan will slowly advance east associated with a strong pool of cold air associated with a series of vortices spinning into Pennsylvania. The arctic front will slowly progress over western Pennsylvania, western New York State, and western Maryland. An increasing pressure gradient will allow winds to increase behind the front along with a developing area of QPF as lapse rates increase in correspondence with a vigorous piece of energy. The atmospheric column will begin to cool over western areas rapidly changing rain to heavy snow with strong winds.
8pm-12am Thursday: A blossoming area of QPF over western and central Pennsylvania will be associated with a high-impact snow event. Total QPF will be around .25-.6in. This will be associated with a period of heavy snow from western Maryland north into western New York State. 1000-500mb thicknesses will drop sub 530dm with rapidly increasing snow rates. The strong northwest flow will along wind sustained to increase near 20-30mph with gusts up to 55mph. This will be wind advisory criteria. Temperatures will rapidly fall sub 30F. Snow ratios will increase to 20:1 in addition with increased orographic lift combined with lake enhancement. This will be a 2-4hr period of heavy snow with amounts around 3-6in along and west of the Alleghany Front.
12am-6am Friday: This band of QPF will shift northeastward as a 988mb surface low moves into central New York State. As the post frontal precipitation moves eastward, it will extend ahead of the 0C H85 line. This will allow precipitation to initially be rain, but rapidly change to snow. Flash freezes are likely all the way to the coast. High temperatures will be reached in the morning hours and fall into the 20s throughout the day for all areas. The best dynamics will shift into New York State and western New England. Squalls will begin to weaken as they head east of the Alleghany Front. Snow accumulations will begin to focus across central New York. Spotty 1-2in amounts are likely from Washington DC to White Plains, NY but generally most areas will be at a coating or less. Snow accumulations of 3-7in are possible into western New England especially along and west of the favored upslope regions in the Berkshires and on northward. Advisories will likely be issued for a widespread area given flash freeze, falling temperatures, high winds, and temporary heavy snow. Short periods of blizzard conditions are possible into north central Pennsylvania and central New York State.
6am-12pm Friday: The arctic front will push towards I-95 and the Atlantic coast with brief rain changing to snow showers as the column cools. Little to no accumulation is likely. Winds will be easily advisory criteria across the entire Northeast viewing area. Temperatures will continue to fall and the deformation axis of snow will be waning and moving through northern New England. A west-northwest flow will prevail as temperatures drop below H85s drop below -10C. The lake effect snow machine will begin to kick in across the typical snow belts associated with a 300 degree flow. The initial flow will be westerly with bands setting up near Buffalo and Watertown. The Ontario band will shift south into Oswego county, New York.
12pm-8pm: The lake effect snow machine will rapidly increase in this time period as the flow shifts to the northwest. Bands will be organized in a multi-band setup with only moderate accumulation. This flow will aid the upslope favored regions from western Maryland through the Laurel Highlands in Pennsylvania. Heavy upslope snows will begin across the Berkshires into the Greens.
8pm-Saturday morning: The northwest flow will begin to relax as the pressure gradient weakens and winds begin to drop below advisory criteria. Upslope snows will be ongoing in this period with total accumulations of 12in+ for northern Vermont particularly towards Mt. Mansfield and Stowe. Amounts of 6-12in will be more likely across the upslope regions in the White Mountains and Berkshires. 6-12in amounts are also likely over western Maryland into the Laurel Highlands through the snow belt regions of northern Pennsylvania. New York State accumulations will generally be a widespread 1-4in with localized 6-12in amounts for the favored banding locations across the eastern finger lakes towards Cortland county.
By Saturday afternoon, high pressure and increasing heights will begin to end the lake effect snow machine.
Regional Radar...
(Courtesy of NOAA)
Regional Advisories...
(Courtesy of NOAA)
Storm Reports...
None.
Storm Impacts...
1. Heavy stratiform rain with total amounts ranging from 1-1.5in. Recent dryness will likely prevent any flooding.
2. Freezing rain and sleet is likely for parts of northern New England affecting travel through Thursday late morning.
3. Heavy snow squalls likely across the entire Northeast Thursday night into Friday with light accumulations.
4. Winds will increase to 20-30mph sustained with gusts to 55mph; advisory criteria.
5. Flash freezes likely all the way to the coast with rapidly falling temperatures Friday. Widespread travel impacts.
Snow Maps...
***The final snow map for the entire Northeast includes total accumulations for the entire event including the synoptic storm, ULL, and lake effect. This does not indicate total snow depth as snow may melt before the arctic air floods into the region. The Pennsylvania snow map includes both lake effect and snows from the upper level low.
Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures...
(Courtesy of NOAA)
Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed...
(Courtesy of NOAA)
Current Lake Erie Water Temperature...
(Courtesy of NOAA)
Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Rain then a coating to 1in of snow with snow squalls.
Baltimore, MD- Rain followed by snow squalls; coating to 1in.
Salisbury, MD- Rain followed by scattered snow showers; no accumulation.
Pittsburgh, PA- Rain then a period of heavy snow then snow showers; accumulations 2-5in
State College PA- Rain followed by heavy snow squalls; accumulations 1-4in
Williamsport, PA- Rain then heavy snow squalls; accumulations 1-2in
Altoona, PA- Rain then a period of moderate snow showers followed by snow showers; accumulations 2-4in
Harrisburg, PA- Rain then scattered snow squalls; c-2in of snow possible
Lancaster, PA- Rain followed by scatted snow squalls; c-1in of snow possible
Philadelphia, PA- Rain then scatted snow showers; no accumulation
Allentown, PA- Rain then scatted snow showers; a coating of snow possible
Scranton, PA- Rain then scatted snow squalls; 1-2in of snow possible
Washington, DC- Rain then scattered snow showers; a coating of snow possible
Wilmington, DE- Rain then scattered snow showers; little to no accumulation
Dover, DE- Rain then scattered snow showers; no snow accumulation
Trenton, NJ- Rain followed by scattered snow showers; a coating of snow possible
New York City, NY- Rain then scattered snow showers; no snow accumulation likely
Poughkeepsie, NY- Rain then scattered snow squalls; 1-2in of snow possible
Binghamton, NY- Rain then a period of moderate snow; 1-4in of snow possible
Ithaca, NY- Rain then a period of heavy snow followed by scattered snow showers; 3-7in of snow possible
Albany, NY- Rain then scattered snow squalls; 1-2in of snow possible
Hartford, CT- Rain then scattered snow squalls; c-2in of snow possible
Concord, NH- Light snow 1in accumulations, freezing rain .1in accumulation then rain followed by snow 1-4in
Providence, RI- Rain then scattered snow showers; little to no accumulation
Worcester, MA- Freezing rain .1in accumulation then rain followed by snow squalls 1-3in possible
Boston, MA- Rain followed by scattered snow showers; little to no accumulation
Nantucket, MA- Heavy rain and gale force winds
Hyannis, MA- Heavy rain and gale force winds
Burlington, VT- Wintry mix followed by rain and then heavy snow squalls; 3-6in of snow accumulation
Portland, ME- Wintry mix then rain followed by scattered snow squalls; 1-2in possible
Bangor, ME- Wintry mix followed by heavy snow squalls; 3-6in possible
"Subject to Change"
Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills...
(Courtesy of Wunderground)
Model Analysis
The only model inconsistencies remain for the upper level low forecast position and the intensity of the vortex responsible for snow squall activity with the arctic frontal passage. The exact position and track will be critical to the snowfall max accumulations track. GFS tends to maintain the best dynamics across northern Pennsylvania and western New York State while the NAM and other guidance suggest a more sustained band of rain/snow moving across the entire northeast. Current boundary layer progs by high resolution guidance indicate temperatures above freezing for the majority of the QPF suggesting limited snow accumulations east of the Alleghany Front. Skewt charts also indicate the strongest winds will remain around 925-950mb and will likely only mix to the surface during an energy momentum transfer during the frontal passage. ECMWF guidance is even weaker with the ULL with minimal snow accumulations for all areas generally below advisory criteria. Lake effect snow shower activity will increase by Friday. NAM simulated radar shows several longer bands stretching east of the mountains in New York State and Pennsylvania, but exact location remains uncertain until we get closer to the event. Total SREF QPF for lake effect snows are generally .4in or less. This is due to the unorganized activity with a multi band setup.
After the Storm
As to be expected given this winter's track record, guidance and global teleconnections are no longer supporting a sustained pattern change. Recent ECMWF weeklies and NAEFS prognostics indicate a brief cold period this weekend followed by increasing anomalies towards weeks 2 and 3. It still appears earlier indications of a gradient pattern are likely, but the recent retreat in the expected -NAO appears to have lifted the thermal gradient farther north. This will allow for a more amplified southeast ridge with warmer temperatures reaching farther north locations. Current teleconnections look terrible for a sustained pattern change with a +NAO, -PNA, and questionable MJO phase change. While the pattern will become more stormy, long range guidance suggests very mild weather in the 2-3 week period. ECMWF weeklies were near +5F for the northern Middle Atlantic. Any colder weather will remain across Canada and towards Alaska. There will likely be some sort of snow accumulation before the end of the month for all locations, but east coast cyclogenesis remains unlikely. Towards February a few wavelengths show a return to brief colder weather early in the month, but given the state of the increasing solar activity and madden jullian monsoonal patterns, this remains questionable. Wavelengths suggest stormy periods towards the 16th and 21st of January, but rain vs snow will be a problem through the entire Northeast.
Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...
Winter Forecast 2011-2012... Link
Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.
Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...
(Courtesy of WGAL)
"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2011-2012 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.0in
Monthly Total (October)- 5.5in
Monthly Total (November)- 0.0in
Monthly Total (December)- 0.4in
Monthly Total- (January)- 0.2in
Seasonal Total- 6.1in
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 29F
Lowest Low Temperature- 10F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
(Snow Storms Stats)
Historic October Nor'easter - October 29 - 5.5in of wet snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - December 17 - 0.3in of wet snow
Weak Clipper - December 29 - 0.1in of snow
322 Lake Effect Snow Band - January 18 - 0.2in of snow
Reader Comments
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The link actually worked for me this time! Thanks!
The mountains out there are getting feet upon feet upon feet this week! I wonder if there will be avalanche problems by the end of this week / next week.
Mount Ranier, WA forecast for 12,660 Feet
(Peak is actually about 14,400 Feet)
Tonight: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 9. Windy, with a west southwest wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Tuesday: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 13. Windy, with a west southwest wind 28 to 31 mph decreasing to between 15 and 18 mph. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.
Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 2. West wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Wednesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 21 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible.
Wednesday Night: Snow. Low around 25. Southwest wind between 17 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 25 to 31 inches possible.
Thursday: Snow. High near 25. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.
Thursday Night: Snow. Low around 4. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible.
Friday: Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 13.
Friday Night: Snow. Cloudy, with a low around -3.
Saturday: Snow. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 6.
Saturday Night: Snow. Cloudy, with a low around -1.
Sunday: Snow. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 3.
Sunday Night: Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 3.
Monday: Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 12.
This could turn out to be a snowy week for the northern 1/3 to 1/2 of the country before the January "thaw".
Latest 6z or 18z GFS 5-Day Snowfall Accumulation
And i'm up for a road trip!
Just gotta scrape the car off and head to the train in an hour.
Wasn't looking forward to ice and we didn't get any that I can tell.
We all should have known better. The chances were very low to get three consecutive record setting winters.
We also should recall history for our areas that usually after one or two consecutive big winters the next is usually warm and wet.
I remember after the 1997-1998 blizzards the following fall was nearly identical to the previous and everyone rang the alarms we would have a repeat winter. Yeah, didn't happen not even close.
Same thing here.
I have had a Cub Cadet 2 stage that I bought after the record year of '95-'96 winter. It worked perfectly the next year. The next winter was dry. Seriously, the snowblower has worked great. And it has seen some record years. Lower Hudson Valley 2000-2001 was an incredible year. And still one pull it starts.
Seattle seasonal averages
NWS Seattle: 3.6"
Seattle Urban: 5.0"
Seattle-Tacoma AP: 6.8"
Record snowstorm is 20", I'm guessing at Seattle-Tacoma AP.
------------------------------------------------- ----
That moderate weekend snowstorm that was focused on the Mason-Dixon line on the 18Z GFS has shifted north to focus on I-80 at the moment.
Broadalbin,NY.
Even though the lake effect belts have recently seen some snow, they're still far behind where they should be and on record low pace. A potential saving grace is that Lake Erie should remain largely unfrozen, greatly extending the LES season there.
The prospect of a moderate snowfall within range of the Mason-Dixon line could put a nice dent in snowfall deficits there, but the recent northern trend (obviously things could still change) is a little discouraging for that region. A moderate snowfall across the PA/NY border would only put a very minor dent in the deficits there.
Sure, we could have a nice snowstorm pop up the east coast over the next 2 months if we cross our fingers and get lucky, but the outlook is not promising with a strengthening LaNina and a NAO that just doesn't want to budge.
BTW, looks like we "could" be in for another hot summer.
At least I just got backups done.
OriginalLT and F1 and Pcroton...
Sooo happy to hear you got some of the white stuff!!
May the same be true for everyone soon.
If it's any consolation, given that we got a foot of snow here...
it's now RAINING here.
Broadalbin, NY
I'm thinking 6"-10" type all snow for southern upstate New York, central New England. 3"-6" type in PA along & north of I-80 above 1500' with some mixing. T"-3" Mainly ice between I-80 & I-78 in PA and for New Englands I-95 corridor, and ice to rain south of I-78. Mainly rain for the mid-atlantic I-95 corridor. Snowfall amounts taper off into northern New York & northern New England.
Obviously too far out yet for accurate amounts, but I'll go with this type of thinking as a 72hr-plus starting point.
Washington DC, Reagan National Airport
Lat: 38.86 Lon: -77.03 Elev: 16
Last Update on Jan 17, 2:52 pm EST
Partly Cloudy and Breezy
57 °F
(14 °C) Humidity: 62 %
Wind Speed: SW 23 G 31 MPH
Barometer: 29.77" (1007.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 44 °F (7 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Long term ensemble trends indicate possible upstream blocking and a shift in the entire global jet stream regime. The current pattern we are in is nearly the 90 day mark meaning it is becoming very stale. Typically anomalous teleconnections patterns last 60-90 day periods. So while it is possible a pattern change is coming, I am being very careful and wary given the seasonal trend. The suggested pattern change is a bit of hype as people become desperate for snow. But I do think I can say February will be the most winter-like month we have seen so far, although that is not saying much, lol.
:-|
Same here...
Check out this crow sledding down a snowcovered roof on a jar lid sled not once, but twice!
Link
And I just sit here....Yep just sit here wondering and thinking and laughing.
don't mind me...I just think that people put so much emphasis on models and computers. I wonder if the so called experts ever put age and experience into their equation.
The SPC has issued an MD about it which says they may issue a watch, but I doubt it given the marginal setup.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NYC009-013-029-121-172315-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0002.120117T2236Z-120117T2315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
536 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
Ah just another member of the I hate technology generation. ;) hahahaha
I think my first wunderblog may have been about this. Can't remember.
not really Blizz. Hey now....I'm not quite that old...hahahahaha. I love technology.
That is what they all say... hahahah
Keep an eye on the low-topped convection. Velocity radar indicates some strong winds reaching the surface briefly at high wind warning criteria. Stable layer over eastern Pennsylvania should allow for weakening of the line, but gusty winds are possible.
...AVALANCHE WARNING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOR THE OLYMPICS...
WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST NORTH OF STEVENS
PASS...FOR HIGH DANGER ABOVE 4000 FEET
...AVALANCHE WARNING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOR THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST FROM STEVENS PASS SOUTHWARD AND
FOR THE MT HOOD AREA...FOR HIGH DANGER ABOVE 4000 FEET TUESDAY
INCREASING AND BECOMING EXTREME ABOVE 5000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY
...AVALANCHE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY...FOR THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES...
VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH EVEN MORE DANGEROUS
AVALANCHE CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WA CASCADES AND THE MT HOOD
AREA. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS 1-3 FEET OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
DENSITY SNOW OVER HAS BEEN DEPOSITED OVER AND IS POORLY BONDED TO
THE OLD SNOW SURFACE...PRIMARILY A HARD CRUST LAYER FORMED AFTER
WARM WEATHER LAST WEEK. FIELD REPORTS TUESDAY MORNING INDICATE
THAT SLIDES RANGING UP TO ABOUT 18 TO 24 INCHES WERE RELEASING
RELATIVELY EASILY BY SKI OR EXPLOSIVES WITH SOME OF THESE STEPPING
DOWN TO AND INVOLVING MOST OF THE RECENT SNOW ABOVE THE OLD CRUST.
GRADUALLY DEEPER AND DENSER WIND SLABS DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY SHOULD
BE LOADED BY EVEN LARGER AND MORE DENSE SNOWFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS...HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND SOME WARMING
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WA CASCADES AND MT
HOOD AREA...INCREASINGLY LARGE ...SENSITIVE ...FAST...AND LONG
RUNNING SLIDES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE SMOOTH HARD ICE CRUST THAT
SHOULD ACT AS THE PRIMARY SLIDING SURFACE IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS A
RESULT TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED TUESDAY AND
SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. MOORE
I think right now, it's best to use 1/2 model guidance and 1/2 knowledge, experience & common sense.
During this century, human meteorologists will no longer be necessary, replaced entirely by supercomputers.
Washington DC, Reagan National Airport
Lat: 38.86 Lon: -77.03 Elev: 16
Last Update on Jan 17, 7:52 pm EST
Mostly Cloudy
58 °F
(14 °C) Humidity: 67 %
Wind Speed: SW 20 G 26 MPH
Barometer: 29.73" (1006.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 47 °F (8 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi
Campbelltown, PA
MM - I was not saying we can't do without the computers and models. I just look at twice in the past 2 weeks the models were bad. They were clueless on the big LES event Jan 1st and 2nd. And it appears they didn't have a handle on the end of this week. I think you are correct on what to use, but that probably won't happen and soon enough it will be all computer, just as you said
The other thing is at what point do the supercomputers get smart and decide to take over the world. Oh wait we need Cyberdyne to first get that special chip. hahahahaha
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