The Northeast Weather Blog... |
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| Posted by: Zachary Labe, 20. marraskuuta 2011 klo 20:47 (GMT) | +3 |


Fig. 3- MJO phase 3 anomalies for November favoring warmth over much of contiguous United States.


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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member
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Linglestown, PA
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| Elevation: | 520 ft |
| Lämpötila: | 62.5 °F |
| Kastepiste: | 61.9 °F |
| Ilmankosteus: | 98% |
| Tuuli: | Tyyntä |
| Tuulenpuuska: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 23. toukokuuta 2013 klo 21:48 (EDT)
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Happy Happy Birthday to you!!!
and Happy Thanksgiving!!!
Saw it was your BD over on FB..
have a great day!
I too am not a frequent poster due to travel, but I enjoy the insights from all.
Played in our neighborhood annual turkey bowl 1 hand touch in our cul de sac this morning, I am getting old, we had just around 30 people competing from age 10 thru 58 male and female, the star was the 58 yr old even though I was lucky enough to get a game ending interception when it was thrown right to me.
To All be safe and enjoy your holidays!!!
Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving!!!
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~~~~~~~~♥ H A P P Y ♥~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~♥ B I R T H D A Y ♥~~~~~
~~~~~~~~♥ B L I Z Z !! ♥~~~~~~~
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=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=
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(____________________________)
We didn't get the day of sunshine we were promised by the locals. It was cold, cloudy and spit rain and snow. We still only got a dusting of snow here (Jericho, VT), while one of our guests got 6" of snow! (East Fairfield, VT)
But it turns out that a meal cooked by 8+ different family chefs can work and taste great! Amazing!
* * * ♥ ALLY UPDATE! ♥ * * *
Wednesday, November 23, 2011 8:37 PM, EST
So much to tell.....
1. Ally can read!!! She has been sounding out 3 letter words for the past couple of weeks! It is so much fun, and she is so proud of herself.
2. Ally has a loose tooth! We are very excited for the tooth fairy. We have found out that Ally's tooth fairy brings trinkets, not money....who knew? We are wondering what would happen if her tooth fell out on Christmas Eve? Would Santa and the Tooth Fairy work together? I guess we will just have to wait and see.
3. Ally is HAMA positive (grrrrr), BUT she is only slightly HAMA positive. We are going to draw again next Thursday and see if she is still positive. She is really close to being negative, so they hope she will drop quickly. We hope so too.
4. Ally is due for scans again in January. Our DHMC doctors are working on having Ally do the CT and the MIBG awake. Ally did the CT awake last time, no problem. The CT only takes 5 minutes or so. The MIBG is 45 minutes of Ally laying very, very still. One of us will be able to be in the room with her for both scans. Hopefully this will all go well.
5. Sadly we had to leave Ally's medical supply company this week. Since Ally has been diagnosed we have been using a company called New England Life Care for all of her at home medical supplies (for her port and her feeding tube, and lots of various things over the past few years). My school switched insurance companies, and NELC can no longer service us. It seems silly to be upset about a switch in company, but this company has been fantastic. Because of them we have been able to leave the hospital a day early on more than one occasion. They are local (right here in Concord) and they have been able to get us supplies the day they are ordered. When Ally had to have her low dose chemo after the tumor came back, this was the company that came to our house everyday for 2 weeks on, 1 week off, for 11 or 12 cycles. They have been great and we will miss the local company.
Happy Thanksgiving. This year we are thankful for Ally....she is pretty awesome.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
840 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2011
VALID 12Z TUE NOV 29 2011 - 12Z FRI DEC 02 2011
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A TROUGH
BROADENING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DOWNWIND OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. DETAIL-WISE...THERE ARE
MAJOR ISSUES OUT EAST WITH HOW FAR SOUTH A CLOSED CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD AND HOW DEEP IT WILL GET. THE NCEP GUIDANCE WAS
ALONE WITH THEIR MORE NORTHERLY AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS
WHILE THE INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE WAS SETTLING UPON A MORE
SOUTHERN/SLOWER SOLUTION. THE INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE
BELIEVABLE WITH THEIR MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED UPSTREAM DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. OF
THESE THE 00Z CANADIAN FIT TELECONNECTIONS BEST AS THE APEX OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE IN NORTHERN QUEBEC IMPLIES A CLOSED LOW IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF TN. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN DOES LOOK TOO DEEP
WITH 500 MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES 5-6 SIGMAS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH IS IMPROBABLE GIVEN HIGH SOLUTION UNCERTAINTY.
THIS IS ANOTHER REASON WHY A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN/00Z CANADIAN WAS NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH SLOWED ITS
PROGRESSION AT LEAST 12 HOURS WHEN COMPARED TO CONTINUITY AND
LEADS TO MORE PROLONGED PCPN/UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS WOULD HAVE FORCED EVEN ADDITIONAL
SLOWING...BUT LOOMING UPSTREAM KICKER ENERGY APPROACH WORKS
AGAINST BEING QUITE THAT SLOW. DEPENDING ON ITS UNCERTAIN DEPTH
AND TRACK...COMMA HEAD SNOWS COULD SPREAD FROM THE MID-SOUTH
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES AND UP THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF WARMER
SECTOR ERN SEABOARD HEAVY RAINS.
SOMETHING INTERESTING AND PARTICULARLY CONCERNING OF NOTE...THE 00Z NAM DEPICTION OF THE LOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOWS A VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA PUSHING NORTHWEST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SUB 537 DAM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND SUB 1290M 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND. DEEP OMEGA AND A PERSISTENT...NEARLY STATIONARY BAND WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. OBVIOUSLY HARD TO BITE ON THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SINCE IT IS ONLY ABOUT 48 HOURS AWAY AND THERE IS A REAL POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
This is embarrassing for us Virginians, seriously the deep south getting their first flakes before we do?? So messed up.
We're headed up to the Poconos, where we expect mid-50's and some rain. Possibility of snow showers Wednesday morning, which would be sweet. Otherwise, waiting for mid-December and doing my best to not be discouraged by the forecasts of a mild winter!
Yah! Fantasy 384hr storm GFS season!
Well some of us Virginians got their first flakes in October. Enough for snowballs even!
Woo Hoo! Day 16? hahahahahahaha
Pittsfield MA: 60F (t)
N. Queens (LAG) NY: 65F (t)
S. Queens (JFK) NY: 64F (t)
Newark NJ: 68F (t)
Atlantic City NJ: 71F*
11/23 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
Blacksburg VA: 51F (t)
11/22 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
Charleston WV: 55F*
11/19 RECORD LOW MINIMUM
Danville VA: 23F (t)
11/15 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM(in addition to a previous post)
Morgantown WV: 55F*
It's still about 54 now and raining steadily like a good Spring rain.
Now for a rousing chorus of Penny Lane...
...in the pouring rain.
Very strange.
Anything being forecast for Dec 5th, Blizz? What a great day today. Probably not for hunters though. I would think they want cold air.
Any thoughts for the upcoming week?
Lol it's not just winter weather, this pattern is just boring. Temps in the 40s and 50s don't appeal to me. It should either be cold enough for snow or warm enough to enjoy it!
We actually had to worry about bees yesterday while putting up our Christmas lights in shorts & a t-shirt.
Blizz, I really got you beat on snow so far this year. Was up the Poconos for the 12" in October. Was in New Hampshire this weekend for 6"-8" snowpack.
LT: No prob
Harrisburg PA: 63F (t)
Wilmington DE: 66F (t)
Baltimore MD: 71F*
Dulles VA: 70F*
Washington DC: 72F*
Salisbury MD: 72F (t)
Lynchburg VA: 71F (t)
11/27 RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS
Watertown NY: 51F*
Rochester NY: 51F*
Buffalo NY: 54F*
Whoo hoo!
I'll be sure to stop by!
:-D
1945-1946
1998-1999
1999-2000
2008-2009
Can't say I know much about the winter of 1945-46 but none of the other three particularly excite me. However I'm not too dissapointed, Philly saw a fair amount of snow during 1999-2000 and 2008-2009.
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