000
FXUS62 KMFL 291823
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
223 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2008
.DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY AFFECTING S FLA AND ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WHICH IS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP PWAT BELOW NORMAL WITH
SUBSIDENCE CAPPING LIKELY TO CONTINUE INHIBITING DECENT CONVECTION
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER,
THE GFS DOES SHOW THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT AT
12Z THIS MORNING WAS STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THUSLY, THE 12Z MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS SCT POPS ALONG THE EAST
COAST BUT THE MET AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA ONLY INDICATES
ISOLD WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE.
SO WILL ONLY GO WITH LOW END SCT FOR E CST AND ISOLD W CST AND
WILL KEEP THIS SAME TREND GOING INTO SATURDAY. TIMING OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE E CST EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INTERIOR/W CST AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN THE
EXTENDED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
STRONG TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE E CST OF THE U.S. AS UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD. IN FACT, THE GFS NOW SHOWS THIS
FEATURE TO BE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH IN TURN SUPPRESSES
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SOUTHWARD AGAIN. SINCE
THIS IS THE FIRST RUN TO SHOW THIS AND THE GFS CHANGES RUN TO RUN
WITH REFERENCE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURN, WILL NOT ADJUST
EXTENDED JUST YET.
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Tropical Depression 16 is expected to strengthen over the next 12-24 hours as wind shear continues to weaken across the region and may become a tropical storm during the day Sunday. Latest Satellite images show that the majority of the thunderstorm activity continues to fire on the eastern side of the circulation. As wind shear weakens, thunderstorm activity should begin to fire on the western side as well, allowing the system to strengthen. The storm is expected to continue on a west-northwest track across the northern Caribbean the next few days before being picked up by an upper-level trough moving across the eastern United States toward the end of next week. This system will produce very heavy rain over Puerto Rico, Hispanola, and Cuba the next couple of days which may lead to deadly mudslides in the mountains and flooding problems. Interests in -(South Florida) and the ( Keys ) should monitor the progress of this system.
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