Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
541 PM EDT Monday may 20 2013
Synopsis...
a frontal boundary will be located north of the region through
Wednesday with high pressure offshore. A cold front will move through
the region Thursday into Friday. This front will be followed by a
high pressure system which will be in place through Holiday the
weekend.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
having reviewed the 12z/20 European model (ecmwf) and GFS and 18z NAM...the forecast
scenario tonight and Tuesday will ride the blend of the European model (ecmwf)/NAM
since the GFS has not defined the low level moisture as well as the
NAM/ECMWF.
Its doubtful whether any more showers will occur in our area this
evening and the 630 PM update will completely cut out showers from the
forecast unless cospa says differently. Cospa at worst permits sprinkles
into SW Delaware between 7p and 730p.
The lack of middle and upper level cloudiness overnight opens the door
for extensive fog again late tonight.
The 458 PM legacy product update reduced the chance of showers this
evening and withdraw thunder. Movement of activity crossing ches
Bay at 5p is slowly east-northeast and not enough instability is expected to
remain by Sundown for thunder in our forecast area.
&&
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
high pressure will remain well off the coast...pumping in warm and
humid air across the region. A weak upper low will be meandering
across Virginia/Maryland during the day. Upper (h5/h7) heights will be slowly
building early...then beginning to lower late.
Slow improvement in the ceilings/visibilities expected Tuesday. Areas of fog will
dissipate by middle morning and skies should become partly sunny by
afternoon. There will be more instability than today...so a chance for
showers/thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday. Highs will climb
into the low 80s north and middle 80s across the metropolitan Philadelphia
area. Winds will be southwest at around 10 miles per hour.
&&
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
a frontal boundary will be located north of the region through
Wednesday, with high pressure offshore. Moisture advection will
also be abundant into the region. This advection, along a with a
warm and muggy airmass will contribute to some instability during
the day Wednesday. The instability may be on the magnitude of 1000
j/kg coupled with steep lapse rates. Shear will be very weak on
Wednesday with limited storm motions. Pulse type convection may be
possible particularly closer to the front during the day. Feel
this activity will be scattered but the degree of instability may
allow for a scattered strong storm. The overall lack of shear will
limit any severe threat Wednesday. With the scattered nature of
convection high temperatures may differ in spots. Have gone on the
warm side given the strong southwest flow into the region.
A cold front will approach the region on Thursday and right now
the best timing for frontal passage is later Thursday. As usual
this may need to be adjusted as we get closer. Raised probability of precipitation to high
chance based on current timing. Though several of the GFS ensemble
members and the 12z European model (ecmwf) hint the front may be a touch slower
than model forecasts. Went cooler on temperatures Thursday due to
cloud cover. This may also limit the instability potential
Thursday ahead of the front though slower timing could lead to a
more unstable environment. Overall went with elements of the sref
and wpc for quantitative precipitation forecast for the frontal passage. Overall, Thursday looks
to have the highest probability of precipitation.
Behind the front, strong high pressure will build in with more
sunshine and cooler temperatures. Highs generally in the lower to middle
70s, light winds and sunny skies are likely to dominate the
Holiday weekend! Did not stray much from guidance here. Think the
GFS may be to quick with any system that comes in next Monday.
&&
Aviation /22z Monday through Saturday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
Tonight...generally VFR to start. Southwest wind at 5 to 10 knots
for the most part except south-southeast along the coasts. VFR conditions will
lower again tonight in fog and stratus as the humid airmass remain
in place with light wind. Widespread IFR and LIFR develops late.
Tuesday...IFR/LIFR conds in fog/stratus to start at 12z improve to
VFR scattered-broken clouds at or above 3500 feet in the afternoon with scattered afternoon
showers/isolated thunderstorms possible but not included in the 18z/20
tafs.
Outlook...
Wednesday... mainly VFR with the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms at all taf sites in the afternoon to reduce conditions
to MVFR or IFR for brief periods. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thursday.... VFR to MVFR in showers and a few thunderstorms.
Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots turning to the west at night. Best
chance for showers and thunderstorms this week occurs Thursday.
Friday and Saturday... VFR with high pressure building in and winds
becoming light north or variable.
&&
Marine...
looks like the Small Craft Advisory conditions on the ocean waters have just about
ended. It has been a very low-end event and with the warm air over
the cold waters and the decreasing p-gradient...it appears that a
period of sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions will be over the waters. The flag will
be dropped with the 330 PM coastal waters forecast issuance. It appears the the SW winds
will continue on the waters tonight through Tuesday. There may be
areas of fog on the waters tonight and scat showers/thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon.
Outlook...
seas and winds will be below Small Craft Advisory till early Wednesday. Seas are
expected to be at least 5 feet from Wednesday morning till early
Friday. Seas and winds will decrease Friday. Wind will also
increase as the cold front approaches by Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed for a portion of this time frame.
&&
Climate...
low probability first 90f day of the season Wednesday afternoon exception kilg which
touched 90f on 4/10.
&&
Phi watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New Jersey...none.
Delaware...none.
Maryland...none.
Marine...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Gaines/nierenberg
near term...drag/O'Hara 540p
short term...O'Hara
long term...Gaines/nierenberg
aviation...drag/Gaines/nierenberg/O'Hara 540p
marine...drag/Gaines/nierenberg/O'Hara
climate...540p
