Area forecast discussion...update...
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
620 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
Aviation...[26.00z issuance]...VFR conditions through 00z Monday. Scattered
to broken thin high clouds through the forecast period. Expect a few low to
middle level fair weather cumulus clouds Sun afternoon. Winds will
become mostly variable at 3 to 5 knots this evening and overnight
becoming east ot southeast at 8 to 12 knots late Sun morning through
Sun afternoon. 32/ee
&&
Short term [tonight through Sunday afternoon]...surface high
pressure will move east tonight as an upper ridge builds east from
the Southern Plains. This will allow a southerly flow to develop
across the area tonight...bringing increasing moisture back to the
region. This will lead to slightly warmer temperatures tonight...low to middle
50s inland and middle 60s near the coast. Dry and warm conditions
continue on Sunday with slightly higher humidity values. Highs on
Sunday will be in the middle and upper 80s in most area with lower 80s
along the coast. /13
[remainder of the Memorial Day weekend]...southerly winds will
persist and low level moisture levels will increase through Monday
as the surface high pressure remains east of the area through
Monday...bringing a return of southerly winds and an increase in
moisture levels. An upper shortwave trough approaching from the west
will move slowly over the forecast area Sunday night into
Monday...but should only bring an increase in high to middle level
cloudiness with no rain expected.
High temperatures through Memorial Day weekend will range from 85 to
90 degrees inland areas...with lower 80s along the coast. Low
temperatures will range from 58 to 65 degrees inland areas...with
upper 60s along the coast. /22
&&
Long term [tuesday through saturday]...for Tuesday the eastward
shift in the upper features continue...with the NE-eastern trough moving
well off the East Coast...and the upper ridge shifting over the
Continental U.S....east of the miss river. The surface ridge over the East
Coast builds west over the northern Gulf of mex. Moisture levels are
on the increase with the low level flow becoming a more organized
southeasterly. With the forecast area coming under stronger high
pressure...temperatures above seasonal return.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...the western Continental U.S. Trough takes a
negative trough...pushing the upper ridge to over the East Coast.
Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain make a return back into the forecast...especially over
eastern sections of the forecast area...with the moderate onshore flow over the
northern Gulf Coast continues...and a shortwave swings around the
base of the western upper trough...swiping the lower miss River
Valley. A slight chance at best is expected...though. With precipitation
chances on the increase...temperatures cool a bit from the previous day over
western sections of the forecast area...but remain well above seasonal over
eastern sections.
Wednesday night through Thursday...the western upper trough organizes
a bit. A shortwave moves northeast over the eastern Gulf Coast from
south of the Caribbean. The GFS maintains a slightly warmer/wetter
solution than the European model (ecmwf)....but the difference is small. Have went
close to guidance for the forecast...with guidance in general
agreement.
Thursday night through Saturday...the medium range guidance begins to
diverge significantly. The western US trough organizes into an upper
low and swings east. The GFS is advertising a fast...more North
Passage than the European model (ecmwf). The slower European model (ecmwf) organized the upper system
more as it moves east. Both are advertising upper energy diving south
over the western Continental U.S....to varying extents. Over the southeastern
Continental U.S. Is where the patter really begins to diverge. The European model (ecmwf) takes
the shortwave over the eastern Gulf of mex and takes it
north...forming a surface low along the Florida Atlantic coast and taking
it north along the coast. The GFS meanders it slowly western over the
Gulf of mex...organizing it very little. For temperatures...both the European model (ecmwf)
and GFS are in pretty good agreement. For probability of precipitation...the European model (ecmwf) maintains
a drier solution over the forecast area than the GFS due tot the shortwave being
more distant from the forecast area. For the forecast...have generally went with
the GFS...with the GFS ensembles in pretty good agreement with the op
GFS. /16
&&
Aviation [26.00z kmob/kbfm/kpns taf issuance]...VFR conditions
expected through the next 24 hours with only a few passing high
clouds. /13
&&
Marine...high pressure will continue to build across the northern
Gulf through the middle of next week. This will result in a light to
moderate southeast wind flow continuing over the marine area through
much of next week. Little change in seas can be expected. /13
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 60 85 66 86 65 / 00 00 05 05 05
Pensacola 66 85 68 86 68 / 00 00 05 05 05
Destin 68 82 69 84 69 / 00 00 05 05 05
Evergreen 54 89 61 88 60 / 00 00 05 05 05
Waynesboro 55 88 64 88 60 / 00 00 05 10 05
Camden 54 89 62 89 61 / 00 00 05 05 05
Crestview 54 89 58 89 59 / 00 00 05 05 05
&&
Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...red flag warning until 6 PM Saturday for the following zones:
coastal Okaloosa...inland Okaloosa...
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
