Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
325 PM PDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Synopsis...cold temperatures will be common tonight across Nevada
..with temperatures in the 20s and 30s. Tomorrow will be
warmer...with gusty winds across central Nevada. There will be a
slight chance of showers on Thursday north of the I-80
corridor...with increasing chances into the weekend. Temperatures
during the weekend will be pleasant.
&&
Short term...Wednesday night through Friday. Models remain in
good agreement through the short term. Concerns for the short term
will be cold temperatures tonight...near record lows in some
places...and gusty winds on Thursday. There may be another freeze
product needed for Friday morning. Temperatures are expected to be
in the upper 20s to low 30s again on Friday morning. Agriculturists
should take necessary action to protect tender vegetation from
damaging cold. These temperatures can kill or damage sensitive
vegetation.
Tonight and Thursday morning will be cold...with many areas well
below freezing. Some northern Nevada valleys near Wild Horse and Charleston
could see temperatures in the teens. Very dry air...and strong radiational
cooling will cause temperatures to nose dive. During Thursday afternoon...temperatures
will rebound nicely...with slightly warmer conditions than today. The
exception will be White Pine/northern Nye counties where it will be
slightly cooler.
Also on Thursday...winds could become quite gusty for northern
Nye...White Pine...and Lander/Eureka counties. 50 knot 500mb jet
maximum rounds the base of the trough and coincides with peak heating
and good mixing. Thought about a Wind Advisory...but feel winds
will be just be under Wind Advisory criteria. Some areas could gust
around 40 miles per hour...with some higher elevations in White Pine gusting
to 50 miles per hour. Valley gusts should be in the 35 to 45 miles per hour range. Expect
some isolated showers across northern Nevada...but little in the
way of rain reaching the ground. Thought about including
thunder...but given lack of instability and moisture...opted to
leave it out. There still could be an isolated strike...confined
to the or/ID/NV border...but confidence is low. Friday will again be
breezy...but not as strong as previous days. Temperatures will be
pleasant...with dry weather.
Long term...Friday night through next Wednesday. Models is good
agreement through Sunday and then differences emerge with timing and
strength of shortwave troughs and break down of blocking high. A
blocking pattern will be in place during the period with a low
centered around the Pacific northwest and a blocking high across
the central part of the country extending northward into Canada.
Several shortwave troughs will eject from the parent low through the
period. This first trough will push across northern Nevada Sunday
night this will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to northern
parts of the County Warning Area and dry thunderstorms across Elko County and parts
of central Nevada. Next shortwave will arrive on Tuesday with more
showers and thunderstorms and increased activity across central
Nevada. Wednesday models deepen a low off the West Coast but some
differences on timing and strength...however dynamics in advance of
this low will bring increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
across most of the Great Basin. Temperatures will be near or
slightly below normal through the long term with above normal
precipitation across the northern part of the forecast area.
&&
Aviation...VFR conditions are expected at all taf sites. Main
concern will be gusty winds through early this evening and redeveloping
tomorrow afternoon strongest winds will be at kely and ktph.
&&
Fire weather...gusty winds will continue into the early
evening...before tapering off after sunset. Tonight will be cold and
dry...with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s across Nevada.
Thursday...winds will again be gusty...with wind gusts around 40 miles per hour
in central Nevada. Winds will be lighter in northern Nevada. The
forecast will remain dry...with only isolated showers and
thunderstorms across northern Nevada. Chances for precipitation will
increase into the weekend.
&&
Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...
hard freeze warning from 2 am to 6 am PDT Thursday for Humboldt
County...northeastern Nye County...northern Elko County...
northern Lander County and northern Eureka County...northwestern
Nye County...Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range...south central
Elko County...southern Lander County and southern Eureka
County...southwestern Elko County...White Pine County.
&&
$$
94/90/90/94
