Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 
357 PM PDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Synopsis... 
low pressure over the Pacific northwest is bringing a cool onshore 
flow to the central California interior. Temperatures will remain 
near normal through early next week. 




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Discussion... 
in the short term...the main concerns have been the gusty 
conditions in the Kern desert and Tehachapi Pass areas and the 
cooler temperatures. With a northwest flow in place above US winds 
are flowing over the Tehachapi Mountains and sinking on the 
eastern slopes making for gusty conditions especially in the 
Mojave area. A Wind Advisory is in effect there until 9 PM this 
evening but my relief will need to monitor the situation for 
possibly temporally extending the advisory. As far as the cooler 
temperatures go the San Joaquin Valley will again have another 
cool morning with lows in the middle to upper 40s. With winds 
virtually non existent today compared to yesterday mixing will be 
minimized and along with mostly clear skies radiational cooling 
will therefore be maximized. Some areas could potentially flirt 
with near record low temperatures. 


Temperatures will gradually and slightly be on an upward swing 
for the remainder of the week and over the weekend but will 
continue to remain near normal. Skies will also remain mostly 
clear through the weekend. With an Omega block firmly in place 
over the central U.S. A system over the Pacific west which has been 
spinning in place for the last few days will begin to move 
southward and will increase the clouds and cool temperatures 
beginning Monday. The only question is will any precipitation 
occur. At this time the current thinking is that with little 
atmospheric moisture present measurable precipitation will be 
unlikely. However...having said that there will be a good chance 
for very light sprinkles especially Fresno northward Monday night 
through Tuesday. With shortwave impulses moving through the area 
temperatures next week will remain well within normal ranges and 
clouds will be more likely. 








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Aviation... 
wind gusts of 35 knots or greater can be expected through and below 
the mountain passes of Kern County through 04z Friday. Otherwise... 
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior. 


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Air quality issues... 
none. 


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Certainty... 


The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. 
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. 


This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted 
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford. 
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit 
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional 
information and/or to provide feedback. 


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Climate... 
records 
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year 


Kfat 05-23 103:1967 65:1916 71:2000 44:1960 
kfat 05-24 103:1943 64:1916 68:2001 41:1953 
kfat 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:1890 42:1980 


Kbfl 05-23 107:1904 67:2010 73:2000 44:1903 
kbfl 05-24 107:1982 68:1980 76:1982 41:1916 
kbfl 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893 
&& 


Hnx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening caz095-098-099. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...andersen 
AVN/fw...Molina 
synopsis...pj 


Weather.Gov/Hanford