Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1201 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Aviation...
/06z tafs/
Concerns...nocturnal stratus and morning fog.
Light southeasterly winds will prevail overnight as a surface
ridge continues moving slowly east of the area. With light
winds...clear skies...and residual moisture on the ground...some
light ground fog will be possible again Thursday morning. But
after a day of considerable evaporation...it should be far less
extensive than Wednesday morning. The arrival of stratus will also
reduce the extent of cooling at the surface...and thus the extent
of the restrictions to visibility.
Some stratocu 2-4kft above ground level are just upstream of Waco. Expect this
layer to lower and thicken overnight. Although the surface winds
will be rather meager...a low level jet will develop tonight in response to
a frontal system entering the Texas Panhandle. The low level jet will reach
25-30kts before dawn...sufficient to allow the better moisture
south of the I-10 corridor to surge northward. The may sun will
effectively mix out the MVFR deck by middle morning.
Extended...
another more extensive stratus intrusion is likely Friday morning.
Introducing this with the 24-30hr portion of the 06z dfw taf. The
stratocu will become VFR by late Friday morning...but the ceilings
may persist much of the day Friday when the moisture will be much
deeper.
25
&&
Update...
there are no major changes to the previous forecast. Some patchy
fog is possible before daybreak...especially across the southern and
eastern zones. Have adjusted the overnight lows a few degrees
based on current trends. This resulted in some adjustments to the
hourly grids as well. Updates have been sent.
58
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 252 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
dewpoints are recovering today so tonight will be a little
warmer. Low clouds south of the County Warning Area this afternoon will return
over the southern half later tonight as a weak boundary moves
northward. The clouds should break by late morning on Thursday
while the boundary stalls around I-20. Overall...Thursday will be a
nice day as highs will be in the middle 80s to lower 90s...skies
mostly clear and light winds.
Ridging will build aloft to the west then slide over the Southern
Plains by Friday. Models have been consistent in developing
convection over the Texas Panhandle both Thursday and Friday
afternoon and evening with some of it moving east along an
elevated front and across parts of our County Warning Area. Our evaluation of
shortwave lift...forecast soundings and cross section profiles
indicate that moisture and instability will be at or above 500mb
(18,000 feet) with drier air below. As a result...feel there could
be some elevated thunderstorms to enter the County Warning Area from the west-
northwest...but most of the precipitation will evaporate before
reaching the ground. If the convection is able to tap moisture
closer to 850 mb... then a pseudo inverted-v sounding would
enhance the potential for virga to produce gusty winds at times.
Ergo...we are not overly excited about rainfall but will carry low
probability of precipitation for the potential of some of the Panhandle convection moving
into the County Warning Area on Friday and Saturday.
Have decided to end the potential for convection on Saturday night
and keep it dry thought the rest of the forecast. Temperatures
over the the Memorial Day Holiday weekend will be seasonal.
Surface winds will increase on Sunday with gusty conditions
Monday through Wednesday. 75
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 65 88 71 85 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
Waco, Texas 65 90 70 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
Paris, Texas 61 84 65 81 63 / 10 10 20 10 10
Denton, Texas 62 87 68 84 67 / 10 10 20 10 10
McKinney, Texas 63 87 70 84 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dallas, Texas 67 91 73 88 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
Terrell, Texas 64 90 71 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
Corsicana, Texas 65 91 71 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
Temple, Texas 66 91 70 87 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 63 91 70 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
25/58
