Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
906 am CDT Friday may 24 2013
Update...
convection over the Rio Grande plains centered near La Pryor showing
ccw rotation indicative of an mesoscale convective vortex. Latest hi-res models move the mesoscale convective vortex
slowly to the east and NE with convection weakening. With total blended
precipitable waters between 1.5 and 1.6 inches locally heavy rainfall can be expected
over the next 1 to 2 hours. Grids and text products updated.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 644 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/
Aviation...
an outflow boundary from a cluster of storms that moved from
northern Texas down to The Hill Country overnight...will continue
to produce showers and thunderstorms across south central
Texas...especially across kdrt this morning. With daytime heating
and unstable weather conditionsin place...expect storms to redevelop
over the I-35 corridor early this afternoon with MVFR ceilings
expected as storms move across. VFR conditions are anticipated for
late this afternoon as the storms clear out the I-35 area
terminals. MVFR ceilings to return at or after midnight across all
local sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/
Short term (today through saturday)...
an mesoscale convective system/mesoscale convective vortex is slowly dropping south into the Edwards Plateau
while a weak upper level short-wave is moving northeast into the
northern Mexican state of Chihuahua. The ongoing showers and
thunderstorms associated with the mesoscale convective vortex should tend to wane toward
morning as the airmass stabilizes. The mesoscale convective vortex stalls over western
parts of south central Texas while the short-wave moves into the
northern Mexican state of coahuila this afternoon into tonight.
These two features along with some surface boundaries to interact
with a moist airmass to generate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms later this morning through this evening. Some storms
may produce locally heavy rainfall up to 3 or 4 inches...gusty
winds and small hail. A few showers and thunderstorms may linger
overnight. The mesoscale convective vortex will be absorbed by the short-wave by Saturday.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop on
Saturday as the short-wave moves across central Texas. A slight
cooling trend of daytime temperatures is expected due to clouds
and rain.
Long term (saturday night through thursday)...
the short-wave moves off to the east Saturday night with isolated
showers and thunderstorms lingering. An upper level ridge builds
into south central Texas on Sunday and persists into Tuesday. A
rain-free period with slightly above average temperatures can be
expected. By the middle of next week...an upper level trough
weakens the upper level ridge. Have maintained the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms for late Wednesday into Thursday due
to passage of the upper level trough.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 93 72 93 72 94 / 50 50 30 10 -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 91 71 92 70 92 / 50 50 30 10 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 72 92 71 93 / 50 40 30 10 -
Burnet Muni Airport 89 69 87 69 90 / 60 50 30 10 -
del Rio International Airport 90 73 91 74 94 / 60 50 20 10 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 89 70 88 70 90 / 60 50 30 10 -
Hondo Muni Airport 94 73 92 72 93 / 50 50 30 10 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 91 72 91 71 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 91 73 90 72 91 / 50 30 20 10 -
San Antonio International Airport 92 73 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
Stinson Muni Airport 92 73 91 72 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
&&
Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/aviation...18
synoptic/grids...13
public service/data collection...30
