Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
549 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Aviation...
00z taf cycle
dryline position has not changed appreciably this afternoon...thus
there will remain a threat of strong to severe storms across the
far eastern plains through the evening...though the main batch of
storms have diminished or moved into Texas. Strong winds
associated with remaining storms will continue to result in
blowing dust from ktcc...to kcvs...to krow. Visibilities may be as low as
one half mile. A similar scenario is expected for tomorrow.
Southwest winds will increase west of the dryline...with gusts to
35kt possible. Isolated strong storms will again be possible along
the far eastern plains east of the dryline...however...confidence
is not high enough to insert into ktcc or krow taf at this time.
34
&&
Previous discussion...328 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013...
..Severe Thunderstorm Watch 327 in effect until 8 PM MDT...
An extremely impressive dryline scenario for nm is taking shape
along and east of the Pecos River valley. The surface dewpoint
gradient and the low level directional wind shear is very strong.
West winds near 25mph with gusts to 40mph and a dewpoint of 21f
at Clines Corners contrasts east wind gusts up to 40mph and a
dewpoint of 64f at Melrose. Severe storms are developing quickly
along this boundary and the latest hi res mesoanalysis indicate
this will continue through late afternoon/early evening over the
east central and southeast plains. Not much time for full discussion
on the remainder of forecast so will keep it brief.
The overall forecast pattern advertised by model guidance has not
changed much since yesterday. The fine line will be along the
southeast half of the area where moisture sloshing from daily rounds of
late day showers and storms will contrast very dry and breezy
conditions farther west. Have essentially made little change to
the pop forecast except to perhaps drag things a little farther
north and west by Friday and Saturday. The temperature forecast will be
hot with readings 5 to 10f above normal.
Once we head into Sunday through next week the upper ridge will build
to near 597dm and really scorch the area with heat. 700mb temperatures
are trending toward +20c once again so while record heat may not
be as likely as was last week...it will be very hot and near record.
The GFS still wants to keep some moisture trickling over the far
southern reaches of the County Warning Area with late day terrain effects leading
to isolated dry/gusty storms.
Guyer
Fire weather...
persistent set up will continue for the next 3 to 5 days. Breezy to
locally windy conditions favoring the higher ridges and areas near
to the Colorado and Arizona state lines as well as to the Lee of the
central mountains. Winds will tend to be herky jerky with wide gust
spreads due to the turbulent mixing or above normal mixing heights.
Will go ahead and upgrade the watch to a warning for Thursday.
Thought hard about the eastern plains zones...mainly western areas
but believe the models arent handling the dryline very well there.
Since fuel conditions and variable with either localized Greenup or
no grass at all.
The main fly in the ointment the next several days will be convection or
thunderstorm development along the dryline across the east and how
moisture gets pushed back to the west. This will be most tricky
during the overnight hours. Either way...a very strong middle level dry
intrusion will be situated over western and northern areas the next
few days although expect humidity values to slowly trend up across
southwest/south central areas as time GOES on due to convection
across the east and moisture trying to seep up from the south.
Haines 6 values will be associated with the very dry and unstable
conditions found across western and central areas with even some
super Haines through Friday. Localized during the weekend. 6 values
should remain into the weekend although erode some due to the
anticipation of moisture ever so slowly flowing westward. Decided to
adjust dewpoints and thus relative humidity values down within the main middle level
dry intrusion area...below to well below guidance and went higher
across the south/east as time GOES on. This is a scenario that
generally occurs during a normal June like this year.
Also decided to increase the gridded wind forecast for Friday and
into the weekend to mimic more of what occurred today and what is
anticipated for Thursday. Friday wind speeds look to be slightly
less so will relegate the watch area to three zones at this
time...zone 105/101 and 102. Again favoring the higher terrain and
areas near the Arizona/Colorado state lines. Also adjust wind speeds up for the
weekend. Both ecwmf and GFS have increased winds slightly for this
period...especially Saturday as another reinforcing jet pushes into
the semipermanent Pacific trough. Thus...seeing some more critical
fire weather conditions for the weekend with a blend of breezy
conditions and Haines 6 to even localized super Haines values.
As mentioned above...the dryline and wetting thunderstorms should
increase across the east or remain persistent there Friday and into
the weekend. Decided to include some isolated dry thunderstorms
across the west Central Highlands such as the Datil and Magdalena
ranges due to moisture trying to seep up from the south. Even more
possible for the weekend and conditions become pretty dynamic then
due to wide moisture fluctuations.
Both European model (ecmwf) and GFS eventually build the upper ridge over the area as
next week progresses and the Pacific trough weakens some. Either
way...a breezier southwest flow should start early next week and
eventually give way to much lighter winds aloft. Temperatures will
warm even more and will continue to be above normal. During this flow
situation...will be looking for moisture to sneak up from Mexico as
well as undercut the ridge via a back door cold front. GFS and European model (ecmwf)
not too bullish for thunderstorm chances during this period but
suspect that will change as we get closer to the time frame.
Although a strong subsidence inversion would most likely form and
try to cap storm development.
50
&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones...nmz101>109.
Red flag warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones...nmz101>103-105>107-109.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
the following zones...nmz101-102-105.
&&
$$
